04-23-2020, 09:15 PM
(04-23-2020, 11:28 AM)MidTowner Wrote: The problem is that we need mass testing in order to ease the very strict restrictions we are living under right now. This is why people are fixated on the levels of testing, and I think that's valid.
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We're not testing everyone. We're not testing even near everyone. And everyone knows that, as a result, the true number of cases is many times higher than the reported number. That's not the problem. The problem is, we are testing a very small number of people, and that won't be enough when restrictions are loosened and the spread naturally increases as a result.
It's not necessary to test everyone. It's not even possible right now. I believe Portugal has the highest rate of testing per capita (outside some tiny countries like Luxembourg and UAE), and even they have tested only about 3% of the population. Canada is at about 1.6%.
What the ratio of actual infections to confirmed cases is, it's anyone's guess. NYC preliminary results say 20% of population (that would be about 10:1), Austrian results say 2:1, Santa Clara County came up with 80:1. The rate of false positives in any given antibody test is critical.