04-23-2020, 08:58 PM
(04-23-2020, 02:09 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: First, I don't think that's why people are fixated on testing. If they were, they'd be saying, we need more testing to lift restrictions. Instead most are saying something like "these numbers are meaningless/fake news because they don't do enough testing"--fundamentally different.
And second, "We are testing a very small number of people"...this isn't true either, or at least is totally subjective, I don't call 10,000 per day a "small number". The question is whether we are testing enough, and I trust the experts to know how many we need to test (basically enough for a random sampling of the population + those with symptoms--to watch for community spread--as well as enough to contact trace everyone who does have it--which is dependent on the number of infections), and shockingly I trust the government to actually follow those recommendations--which is why I'm not freaking out about those numbers, we aren't ready to lift restrictions yet anyway--there are other things that need to happen first as well--just like the virus itself, what is happening now, isn't relevant to what will be happening in a week or in a month. Just like I wasn't unconcerned because we only had a few dozen cases a few months ago, because I knew it would get worse, I am also not concerned that we are doing maybe half the tests we need to be doing when we lift restrictions now because we won't be doing that for some time.
That first is a really good point; 10,000 per day (current level) may well be a perfectly adequate testing rate, depending on how many infections we see. But I am concerned that public health and the provincial government don't identify how many tests will be required for contact tracing when restrictions are eased/lifted, based on the number of infections foreseen.
I am concerned if we are doing half (or whatever fraction) of that number of tests, but it's because I think we should be lifting restrictions soon, or aiming to. But that's my own opinion, and different people will have different ideas of how long these types of restrictions can be in place. I personally am at a loss as to how we can keep up restrictions even close to what we have now for several more months- it seems like the impact on people's livelihoods and well-being will become intolerable long before then. So I really do hope we have sufficient testing capacity before too long.