04-09-2020, 04:49 PM
The federal government projects 11'000 to 22'000 deaths provided we can guarantee extreme physical distancing measures and more over the length of the pandemic. The best case scenario - which I figure implies even stricter lockdown measures - projects 4'400 deaths.
I think it's safe to say this "lockdown" will eventually become an actual lockdown, with essentially nothing remaining open but the essentials (grocers, pharmacists, gas stations, clinics, alcohol stores etc) lest we decide as a nation that we are okay with up to 22'000 people dying. It will be hard to balance the dilemma of life versus economics. If we have strict measures for too long, more people will become unemployed and businesses will bankrupt. If we relax things too early, we risk killing the immunocompromised, elderly, health care workers, front line workers and even perfectly healthy people who for some reason get sicker than expected.
To put this in context, 22'000 is slightly less than half of all Canadian military deaths in World War 1. This will probably be the biggest loss of Canadian life since then. If that doesn't make people stay inside, then I don't know what will - aside from police having the power to really punish people.
I think it's safe to say this "lockdown" will eventually become an actual lockdown, with essentially nothing remaining open but the essentials (grocers, pharmacists, gas stations, clinics, alcohol stores etc) lest we decide as a nation that we are okay with up to 22'000 people dying. It will be hard to balance the dilemma of life versus economics. If we have strict measures for too long, more people will become unemployed and businesses will bankrupt. If we relax things too early, we risk killing the immunocompromised, elderly, health care workers, front line workers and even perfectly healthy people who for some reason get sicker than expected.
To put this in context, 22'000 is slightly less than half of all Canadian military deaths in World War 1. This will probably be the biggest loss of Canadian life since then. If that doesn't make people stay inside, then I don't know what will - aside from police having the power to really punish people.