The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

We don't have to get that low, but anything under 1 would result in negative growth. And yes, travel will be restricted for a long time, it will be very bad for tourist destinations. But with tracing and testing, it appears possible to keep this virus under control without strong local restrictions. This is exactly what many Asian countries are doing right now. Yes, they have differen contexts from ours, but if we can shut down half our economy for 6 months, I believe we can also implement similar controls. The even bigger benefit is that we have a model to follow for achieving that.

I don't think that the Asian restrictions are models we can practically follow. And it really does remain to be seen whether we can keep half our economy shut down for six months. I have no prediction about when, but at some point people will reject stringent controls, and the continued shut down of the economy.

For the Asian countries referred to, the only ones that are kind of relevant to the description are Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, I think:

• Civil rights are severely curtailed in mainland China; I believe that Canadians simply would not accept that level of government control
  
• Singapore and Hong Kong are very compact city-states (or city-regions!) and the management is not easily transferable to Canada
  

However, the Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese restrictions on business and behaviour are actually less strict than those here, with most businesses remaining open. What they do have is better tracking and inherently safer social behaviour -- but riskier public transit with massive usage and no chance of social distancing.

It's a complex subject, but those three did not contain the infection by shutting down half their economies, that much is clear.

South Korean and Taiwan do have some good lessons, though. And Taiwan has heavy traffic to and from the mainland, just as we have to the US.