04-01-2020, 09:36 PM
(04-01-2020, 08:35 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(04-01-2020, 08:29 PM)plam Wrote: The age distribution is interesting. It totally does not match what we are seeing in NZ, where there is a plurality of 20 year olds among the positive cases. Most NZ cases are imported, so it probably means that the 20 year olds are the ones who came back from travel.
The other interesting factoid from this week is that apparently the Chinese government was not counting asymptomatic cases even if they tested positive.(This would help to explain the high mortality rate in Wuhan.) Was this to keep people from panicking due to the high numbers?
It is also probably that the death rate was undercounted. It's not clear by how much (far too much speculation, very little data), but it is likely the official count is an undercount.
As for NZ, travel is a likely factor for a plurality of young folks, but there are many many factors. Age and pre-existing conditions do not play a role in how likely you are to contract the virus--beyond that of behavioural changes--but in Ontario it does change your chances of being TESTED for the virus, where those who are in high risk groups are more likely to be tested, thus our positive rate will be more likely to undercount low risk individuals.
We also have a local custom of older individuals traveling to southern destinations for the winter, so I don't actually know how prevalent travel is amount different age groups.