03-26-2020, 05:26 PM
(03-26-2020, 04:40 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-26-2020, 04:27 PM)plam Wrote: Looking at the calendar, if people were back on March 8, they could have been incubating for a week (March 15) and then got tested towards the end of week 2 (March 22) so that we would see the results about now. The Quebec premier certainly advanced the early March Break hypothesis.
Median incubation period is estimated to be five days, so even if everyone got infected on the very last day of the vacation, half of them should have become symptomatic by March 13. And it's hard to imagine that they would have waited two weeks for a test.
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/27628...y-reported
Quebec is now doing only the quick test at the hospitals, not the central one, so there should not be much delay in the results.
OK, so March 13 is probably a good bet; everyone symptomatic should be showing by March 18. I see that around then they had 48 hour turnarounds on tests. So the most recent week's bump is strange. The recent Quebec growth rate has also apparently not been exponential:
https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1243225370494722048
https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1243...36/photo/1
I think we need a couple more days of data to tell for sure.
Something that is odd is the Quebec recovered number is 2 while the NZ recovered number (out of 280 cases) is 27. Perhaps different definitions.