03-17-2020, 06:28 AM
(03-16-2020, 09:22 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-16-2020, 07:59 PM)MidTowner Wrote: I'm not sure whether 32 today is alarming or not. All sample sizes will be very small- only about eight thousand tests have been administered in Ontario. The actual number is much higher than 172, and it's been admitted that we don't know what it really is. Which makes sense, given that we're in a different phase now, not necessarily focused on tracing every single case, but keeping everyone more distant from one another to slow the spread.
Given that there is no sea change to the testing intensity or methodology, the percentage increase is still, I think, the best indicator as to whether the curve is flattening or not. Because we have no way of counting the undetected cases.
There has, in fact, been a significant change to the methodology used to determine who is tested. In prior weeks, anyone who had traveled outside of the country with any level of symptoms would have been tested. That same person would not have been tested as of a few days ago- only those who are either health care workers, or will need medical treatment.
We are already missing many cases of infected, even those who might have in previous weeks been identified as "presumptive" cases before being tested. And that makes sense at this stage.
The number of deaths will be a reliable indicator, since it's not likely to be undercounted, and it gives both an indication of the number of cases broadly and whether we are flattening the curve enough. And that's still at 0 here in Ontario, thankfully.