03-16-2020, 04:19 PM
(03-15-2020, 09:06 PM)tomh009 Wrote: ...
At the 15-20% range, where Australia and Canada have been, things are tense but for the most part still manageable. Once the daily rates climb into the 30% range, things start getting out of hand very quickly and the system can no longer cope. France, Germany, Italy (before the lockdown), Spain, Sweden are examples of this.
And then there are the explosive growth rates, such as Iran (56%/day in the last earliest sample period) and USA (75%/day in the last week). Simply not sustainable. The US is averaging 500+ new cases every day over the last five days, and 100+ of those in New York. What's the real number of cases?
Thanks for this, it's interesting to see the comparison between countries.
Not only is testing very narrow, though, testing protocols have changed in Ontario. The same individual who merited a test a week or two ago would not have a few days ago. There is effectively acknowledgement that there are many, many cases of the virus in Ontario that will not be captured in those numbers. The Public Health Officer in Ottawa estimated that there are likely 1000 or so cases in the community.
I'm not saying anything about whether more people should be tested or not, just that the relationship between confirmed cases and actual cases has likely changed over the past weeks, and so the growth rate may be a lot higher than shown in your chart. We can't know for sure what the curve we're climbing looks like.
But your conclusion is obviously correct: Italy's system is overwhelmed, ours is still manageable. The measures we take today and tomorrow will hopefully ensure is still is in a couple of weeks' time.