The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

FWIW...as a result of this pandemic, I'm much more aware of the harm caused by the flu. It kills (in the US, where the numbers I saw are from) tens of thousands of people including hundreds of children every year. I'm no longer satisfied with our public health response to the flu. Our flu vaccination programs should be much more widespread, and it's shocking to me that the flu vaccine isn't free everywhere in Canada.

I sort of agree with your opinion. The issue though is, with the flu vaccine, is efficacy in any given year. It doesn't always offer a hell of a lot of protection. My understanding of the vaccine is that it's made in advance of the flu season, but the cocktail isn't always right. When they predict the flu correctly, it's about 60% percent effective, but apparently in seniors it's less effective.

That said, the vaccine is a safer option (less risky) than not getting it, for 6 months and up. But thousands of people would still die, even if all were vaccinated. It's one of those diseases that we have learned to live with -- and that could very well happen with Covid.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 945.3
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 848.8
• Lambton Public Health 836.1
• Toronto Public Health 764.1
• York Region Public Health 760.9
• Halton Region Public Health 728.7
• Peel Public Health 708.2
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 706.6
• Durham Region Health Department 705.5
• Brant County Health Unit 702.3
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 693.4
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 685.5

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 679.2

• Porcupine Health Unit 677.1
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 671.3
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 632.6
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 628.9
• Ottawa Public Health 628.1
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 573.3
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 571.1
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 569.8
• Niagara Region Public Health 557.5
• Peterborough Public Health 554.1
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 550.5
• Southwestern Public Health 549.4
• Northwestern Health Unit 545.2
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 509.7
• Huron Perth Public Health 507.3
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 496.8
• Timiskaming Health Unit 480.3
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 441.1
• Algoma Public Health 423.8
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 400.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 342.2

• TOTAL ONTARIO 687.5

IMHO: things escalated rather quickly in Ontario, across Canada and around the world.

[panamaniac]

FWIW...as a result of this pandemic, I'm much more aware of the harm caused by the flu. It kills (in the US, where the numbers I saw are from) tens of thousands of people including hundreds of children every year. I'm no longer satisfied with our public health response to the flu. Our flu vaccination programs should be much more widespread, and it's shocking to me that the flu vaccine isn't free everywhere in Canada.

I sort of agree with your opinion. The issue though is, with the flu vaccine, is efficacy in any given year. It doesn't always offer a hell of a lot of protection. My understanding of the vaccine is that it's made in advance of the flu season, but the cocktail isn't always right. When they predict the flu correctly, it's about 60% percent effective, but apparently in seniors it's less effective.

That said, the vaccine is a safer option (less risky) than not getting it, for 6 months and up. But thousands of people would still die, even if all were vaccinated. It's one of those diseases that we have learned to live with -- and that could very well happen with Covid.

This is why seniors can now receive an extra-strength dose.  I believe todays vaccines also offer protection against more than one strain.  I do recall that, a few years ago, they got the strain wrong and the vaccine that year was not very effective.

[tomh009]

This is why seniors can now receive an extra-strength dose.  I believe todays vaccines also offer protection against more than one strain.  I do recall that, a few years ago, they got the strain wrong and the vaccine that year was not very effective.

Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future."

And that's what they do with flu vaccines: they try to anticipate which flu strains will be predominant over the coming season. There is no way to know the correct answer at that time, all you can do is try to use your knowledge of prior patterns.

[plam]

This is why seniors can now receive an extra-strength dose.  I believe todays vaccines also offer protection against more than one strain.  I do recall that, a few years ago, they got the strain wrong and the vaccine that year was not very effective.

Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future."

And that's what they do with flu vaccines: they try to anticipate which flu strains will be predominant over the coming season. There is no way to know the correct answer at that time, all you can do is try to use your knowledge of prior patterns.

However we did seem to have eradicated one of the strains that was circulating pre-pandemic: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211025...tinction#1

The wrong prediction will probably still give some protection, but much less than the not-awesome protection from the right prediction.

[danbrotherston]

I sort of agree with your opinion. The issue though is, with the flu vaccine, is efficacy in any given year. It doesn't always offer a hell of a lot of protection. My understanding of the vaccine is that it's made in advance of the flu season, but the cocktail isn't always right. When they predict the flu correctly, it's about 60% percent effective, but apparently in seniors it's less effective.

That said, the vaccine is a safer option (less risky) than not getting it, for 6 months and up. But thousands of people would still die, even if all were vaccinated. It's one of those diseases that we have learned to live with -- and that could very well happen with Covid.

This is why seniors can now receive an extra-strength dose.  I believe todays vaccines also offer protection against more than one strain.  I do recall that, a few years ago, they got the strain wrong and the vaccine that year was not very effective.

Yes, the “everybody” vaccine is usually quadvalent and protects against four strains, and the vaccine for seniors is pentavalent I think. 

It’s interesting, I’m not even sure how many strains there (although as pointed out, one fewer now) are but five is getting up there.

[ac3r]

This is why seniors can now receive an extra-strength dose.  I believe todays vaccines also offer protection against more than one strain.  I do recall that, a few years ago, they got the strain wrong and the vaccine that year was not very effective.

They generally attempt to target a few types each year and it also depends on where you live in the world. For example (pulling this from Wikipedia), the EU states:

The composition of virus vaccines for use in the European Union for the 2021–2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza season recommended by the European Medicines Agency on March 30, 2021, is:

Egg-based or live attenuated trivalent vaccines should contain:

an A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
an A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 (H3N2)-like virus;
a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus.

Cell-based trivalent vaccines should contain:

an A/Wisconsin/588/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
an A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 (H3N2)-like virus;
a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus.
A B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus is recommended in addition to the strains mentioned above for the quadrivalent vaccines.

So, in this case, EU vaccines are attempting to target both influenza A and B types and multiple subtypes and lineages of those two main types. I don't know enough about virology to say whether or not these target specific clades and subclades, though I imagine they don't go that far, similar to how we don't have specific vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 variants, just SARS-CoV-2 itself.

It definitely makes it hard to predict what to target and mistakes do occur. At the same time, the fact we can still develop a vaccine a priori each influenza season is an incredible feat. The idea of a universal flu vaccine is nice, but scientifically quite challenging - although there has been some progress over the years. It'd be nice to see that one day assuming it's possible. Likewise, the NIAID in the USA is hoping to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine.

[jamincan]

My understanding is that they develop the next season's flu vaccine based on the prevalence of various strains in the opposite hemisphere the season prior. So vaccines for the southern hemisphere will be based on infection data collected this winter in the northern hemisphere.

[jeffster]

My understanding is that they develop the next season's flu vaccine based on the prevalence of various strains in the opposite hemisphere the season prior. So vaccines for the southern hemisphere will be based on infection data collected this winter in the northern hemisphere.

I heard the same. So whatever they were getting in May/June is what we’d expect to start seeing in November.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 953.0
• Lambton Public Health 849.1
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 802.5
• York Region Public Health 762.0
• Durham Region Health Department 738.3
• Toronto Public Health 737.4
• Halton Region Public Health 719.4
• Peel Public Health 710.2
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 705.2
• Brant County Health Unit 681.7
• Ottawa Public Health 680.7

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 669.1

• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 668.3
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 648.6
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 638.6
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 635.6
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 633.2
• Porcupine Health Unit 616.0
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 597.8
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 592.5
• Niagara Region Public Health 565.5
• Northwestern Health Unit 558.9
• Southwestern Public Health 547.5
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 538.5
• Huron Perth Public Health 532.4
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 530.1
• Peterborough Public Health 522.4
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 520.3
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 469.7
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 458.1
• Timiskaming Health Unit 440.5
• Algoma Public Health 422.1
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 392.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 363.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 684.3

[nms]

I came across this CBC article today from January 2020: "A virtual plague that decimated World of Warcraft could hold lessons for real-world outbreaks, researchers say"

In the late summer of 2005, a mysterious plague affected an estimated four million people, but caused no deaths — at least not in the real world.

When an update to the multiplayer online game World of Warcraft introduced an in-game condition called Corrupted Blood that acted as a viral disease, players around the world faced a virtual pandemic as their characters unwittingly infected others and rapidly perished.

Today, some epidemiologists believe it can offer insight into the spread of viral infections, including a new coronavirus that has killed 41 people in China as of Friday evening.

"What we saw is some remarkably not-real-world behaviours, but things that are analogous to real-world behaviours," said epidemiologist Eric Lofgren, who was an active Warcraft player when the disease broke out.

It was definitely interesting to read something from the "Before times".

[ac3r]

First time I've heard of that! What an interesting idea to include in an MMORPG.

On the topic of video games and pandemics, I'll recommend the RTS game Plague Inc: Evolved in which you strategically develop a virus with the attempt to kill everyone in the world (and there is an expansion called The Cure in which, yeah, you try to cure it). Sounds grim, but it's rather fun for a couple playthroughs: https://store.steampowered.com/app/24662...nc_Evolved

[JoeKW]

It is an interesting idea and I wish these massive games would try experiments like that but in this case it was a bug that allowed this infection to escape a boss fight and spread in the rest of the world.

This was achieved by having your pet out during the boss fight and when the boss infects the pet you 'put the pet away'. After the fight is over you could go into town and 'pull your pet out' and it would still have the infection and spread it to those around him.

[ac3r]

It seems like the federal health minister is suggesting vaccinations may become mandatory for all in the coming months: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/duclos-...-1.6307398

[ijmorlan]

Even I am not in favour of true mandatory vaccination. Really, the police are going to arrest people and hold them down while they get their needle? That’s what truly mandatory vaccination would mean, by definition; anything less isn’t mandatory. It’s not a good look and it just isn’t appropriate.

That being said, I’d be totally fine with reserving Covid medical care to vaccinated people and people who are medically unable to be vaccinated. We can only go so far to protect people from themselves. It’s not really a question of ethics, but of what is possible; and it’s looking like providing all the medical care we want to provide just isn’t in the cards, so something has to go, and the obvious thing is extensive treatment for Covid patients who should have gotten themselves vaccinated.