The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-06-01

Waterloo Region reported 31 new cases for today (9.1% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 32; 281 new cases for the week (+3), averaging 10.3% of active cases. 333 active cases, -119 in the last seven days.

An average of 665 tests/day for the past week for a positivity rate of 6.03%, a higher rate than last week as testing volume is down by a third.

5,414 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,794. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (-2 days over the past three). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 17 days (-2 days).

Ontario reported 699 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,030 (-48). 1,707 recoveries and nine deaths translated to a decrease of 878 active cases and a new total of 11,689. -7,337 active cases for the week and 111 deaths (16 per day). 20,262 tests with a positivity rate of 3.45%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.74% for the past seven days, compared to 5.49% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today:

• B.1.1.7: 762
  
• B.1.351: 1
  
• P.1: 45
  

583 patients in ICU (-34 today, -109 for the week). Total hospital population of 804 (-221 for the week).

120,195 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 135,797. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

• 144 cases in Peel: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Durham: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Hamilton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 207 cases in Toronto: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in York: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Waterloo: 4.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 39 cases in Ottawa: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Niagara: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Halton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.7 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Our numbers aren't going in the right direction....hopefully we can turn things around.

[plam]

Our numbers aren't going in the right direction....hopefully we can turn things around.

Huh? Waterloo Region's or Ontario's? The numbers look better to me, WR has been having many days in the 30s in the past week, and Ontario seems to be dipping below 1000 consistently. Still not ideal but far better than the peak.

[jeffster]

Our numbers aren't going in the right direction....hopefully we can turn things around.

Huh? Waterloo Region's or Ontario's? The numbers look better to me, WR has been having many days in the 30s in the past week, and Ontario seems to be dipping below 1000 consistently. Still not ideal but far better than the peak.

For WR, as per Tom's post; 281 new cases for the week (+3) So the previous 7 days would have been 278. Unless I am not understanding something. Also to add, our positivity rate is much higher than Ontario.

Ontario, though, is doing very good, with numbers dropping very fast.

[plam]

Huh? Waterloo Region's or Ontario's? The numbers look better to me, WR has been having many days in the 30s in the past week, and Ontario seems to be dipping below 1000 consistently. Still not ideal but far better than the peak.

For WR, as per Tom's post; 281 new cases for the week (+3) So the previous 7 days would have been 278. Unless I am not understanding something. Also to add, our positivity rate is much higher than Ontario.

Ontario, though, is doing very good, with numbers dropping very fast.

It's a 1% difference, which is likely to be outweighed by random error. The positivity rate at 6% is also not ideal but far from red alert levels.

I'd be much more concerned in general by potential Delta variant numbers and our lack of same. I think that's where the potential action lies.

[megabytephreak]

Huh? Waterloo Region's or Ontario's? The numbers look better to me, WR has been having many days in the 30s in the past week, and Ontario seems to be dipping below 1000 consistently. Still not ideal but far better than the peak.

For WR, as per Tom's post; 281 new cases for the week (+3) So the previous 7 days would have been 278. Unless I am not understanding something. Also to add, our positivity rate is much higher than Ontario.

Ontario, though, is doing very good, with numbers dropping very fast.

It looks like the region updated yesterday's number from 30 cases to 32 cases. So the 7-day average (which is what Tom is reporting as cases for the week, with the delta relative to yesterday) is only +1 from yesterday. Also, day that dropped off the average today is the holiday Monday... likely to have been less testing. One "bad" number in a day with otherwise good numbers for the region does not a crisis make.

Looking week over week, we were at a 7 day average of 344 a week ago and 281 today. The rate of decline might not match the provincial average, but it's still respectable.

[tomh009]

Huh? Waterloo Region's or Ontario's? The numbers look better to me, WR has been having many days in the 30s in the past week, and Ontario seems to be dipping below 1000 consistently. Still not ideal but far better than the peak.

For WR, as per Tom's post; 281 new cases for the week (+3) So the previous 7 days would have been 278. Unless I am not understanding something. Also to add, our positivity rate is much higher than Ontario.

Ontario, though, is doing very good, with numbers dropping very fast.

281 cases from May 25 to May 31
vs
278 cases from May 24 to May 30

It's a small variation. Week over week, it's a much bigger difference.

281 cases from May 25 to May 31
vs
344 cases from May 18 to May 24

That's a solid 19% drop, week over week.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-06-02

Waterloo Region reported 31 new cases for today (9.3% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 32; 280 new cases for the week (-1 from yesterday, -59 from last week), averaging 10.6% of active cases. 318 active cases, -84 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

6,469 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 5,046. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-21 (-2 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 15 days (-2 days).

Ontario reported 733 new cases today with a seven-day average of 978 (-52) -- back below 1,000! 1,733 recoveries and 25 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,025 active cases and a new total of 10,664. -7,063 active cases for the week and 113 deaths (16 per day). 31,768 tests with a positivity rate of just 2.31%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.42% for the past seven days, compared to 5.55% for the preceding seven. I think we can now be confident that there was no "Victoria Day bump"!

New case variants reported today:

• B.1.1.7: 938
  
• B.1.351: 3
  
• P.1: 44
  

576 patients in ICU (-7 today, -96 for the week). Total hospital population of 708 (-365 for the week).

139,901 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 136,453. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

• 66 cases in Hamilton: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 134 cases in Peel: 9.7 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Brant: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in York: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Durham: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 173 cases in Toronto: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Waterloo: 4.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 41 cases in Ottawa: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Windsor-Essex: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Halton: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-06-02 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	134	9.7	241	17.5	-53%
Durham	40	6.2	72	11.2	-56%
Hamilton	66	11.4	63	10.9	-17%
Toronto	173	5.9	291	9.9	-50%
Brant	10	7.4	12	8.8	-26%
Middlesex-London	36	8.9	34	8.3	-43%
York	69	6.2	91	8.2	-49%
Waterloo	29	4.7	43	6.9	-29%
Niagara		.0	30	6.8	-54%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	14	5.1	18	6.6	-54%
Halton	18	3.3	36	6.6	-63%
Windsor-Essex	14	3.6	25	6.5	-43%
Ottawa	41	4.1	60	6.0	-34%
Huron Perth	7	7.1	6	5.9	+12%
Simcoe-Muskoka	20	3.7	30	5.6	-32%
Thunder Bay	15	10.0	7	4.3	+143%
Lambton	5	3.8	5	3.8	-11%
Southwestern Ontario	5	2.5	7	3.5	-29%
Eastern Ontario	3	1.5	5	2.5	-42%
Ontario total					-36%

Now, for a different chart: this shows the weekly trend over time: effectively, this is the first derivative of the new case rate. -40% here means that the new case rate was trending down at 40% at that point in time. This does not show actual number of cases.

But what it does show is that the cases are currently dropping as fast as they have ever dropped -- thanks to the vaccinations, I expect.

   

[tomh009]

Canada is now #2 in the OECD in terms of the percentage of people vaccinated, just edging past the UK (this excludes Gibraltar, Pitcairn Island, Falkland Islands etc).

And the most encouraging thing to me is that the line on the chart is continuing it inexorable progress upward. This may slow down somewhat as the priority shifts to second shots, depending on vaccine supply, but we are not yet hitting vaccine hesitancy.

   

[jeffster]

Canada is now #2 in the OECD in terms of the percentage of people vaccinated, just edging past the UK (this excludes Gibraltar, Pitcairn Island, Falkland Islands etc).

And the most encouraging thing to me is that the line on the chart is continuing it inexorable progress upward. This may slow down somewhat as the priority shifts to second shots, depending on vaccine supply, but we are not yet hitting vaccine hesitancy.

Looks like Trumpism is alive and well in the USA! Lots of people avoiding the jab. Since I got the jab: I have 5G on my phone. The aliens are no longer doing anal probs on me. I got a discount code from the CRA to reduce my taxes (thanks Larry). And my car is getting better fuel economy.

Is there a reason for the slow-down in the UK? Does it have something to do with AZ?

[danbrotherston]

Canada is now #2 in the OECD in terms of the percentage of people vaccinated, just edging past the UK (this excludes Gibraltar, Pitcairn Island, Falkland Islands etc).

And the most encouraging thing to me is that the line on the chart is continuing it inexorable progress upward. This may slow down somewhat as the priority shifts to second shots, depending on vaccine supply, but we are not yet hitting vaccine hesitancy.

Looks like Trumpism is alive and well in the USA! Lots of people avoiding the jab. Since I got the jab: I have 5G on my phone. The aliens are no longer doing anal probs on me. I got a discount code from the CRA to reduce my taxes (thanks Larry). And my car is getting better fuel economy.

Is there a reason for the slow-down in the UK? Does it have something to do with AZ?

I know they are giving second doses much sooner than us. That could play a role.

[tomh009]

Looks like Trumpism is alive and well in the USA! Lots of people avoiding the jab. Since I got the jab: I have 5G on my phone. The aliens are no longer doing anal probs on me. I got a discount code from the CRA to reduce my taxes (thanks Larry). And my car is getting better fuel economy.

Is there a reason for the slow-down in the UK? Does it have something to do with AZ?

I know they are giving second doses much sooner than us. That could play a role.

That's pretty much it. Our total vaccination pace (doses/100K/day) is somewhat higher but their focus is clearly on the second shot. I don't know whether first shots are readily available (and not in demand) or whether there are not many available.

[jamincan]

I've heard rates are slowing down in Saskatchewan, so I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing it taper off.

[tomh009]

I've heard rates are slowing down in Saskatchewan, so I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing it taper off.

It doesn't look too bad yet.