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(05-30-2021, 05:23 PM)tomh009 Wrote: The early estimates is that the vaccine effectiveness is down only by about 10% (for BioNTech-Pfizer and AZ, presumably others will be similar) so at the moment it does not appear dramatically worse.
Not-yet-peer-reviewed article here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...21257658v1
The issue is that single dose effectiveness against B16172 is much lower than against B117. Is a problem given that most Canadians have only one dose.
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(05-30-2021, 05:27 PM)taylortbb Wrote: (05-30-2021, 05:14 PM)tomh009 Wrote: 144,833 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 131,239. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).
Am I reading this correctly that you're just counting all doses as first doses when you say dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06?
29k of the 145k doses administered were second doses, I suspect from areas that were hot spots ramping up second doses (this is up a lot compared to a couple weeks ago).
Yes, I'm counting doses only. More advanced tracking metrics are left as an exercise for the reader. 
But, as of yesterday, 56.3% of Ontario residents have received at least one dose.
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(05-30-2021, 05:50 PM)plam Wrote: (05-30-2021, 05:23 PM)tomh009 Wrote: The early estimates is that the vaccine effectiveness is down only by about 10% (for BioNTech-Pfizer and AZ, presumably others will be similar) so at the moment it does not appear dramatically worse.
Not-yet-peer-reviewed article here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...21257658v1
The issue is that single dose effectiveness against B16172 is much lower than against B117. Is a problem given that most Canadians have only one dose.
Yes, the early estimate has it at a 35% reduction in efficacy -- but it still has more than 33% efficacy. The second doses are now starting, and more than 97% of the variants in detected in Ontario are still the British one (B.1.1.7), not the South African or Brazilian one. So, I think it's quite possible that this one, too, will spread slowly enough for the second-dose vaccinations to have an impact in time.
No one actually knows this, though, everyone is either projecting (based on data) or guessing. I'm not going to panic quite yet.
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Certain at risk groups as well as Indigenous people are now eligible to rebook an earlier second vaccine through ROW: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...ation.aspx
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Canada now has the third-highest rate of first-dose vaccination (as % of total population) of all OECD countries. It'll be second-highest sometime this coming week as we'll pass the UK. We should also catch Israel (later) as they have approved vaccines only for 16+, and they have a large percentage of children.
Second-dose vaccinations are well behind the US, though. Too early to predict the progress on those.
I'm estimating the eligible population (12+ years old) at roughly 87%. If that's correct, getting 90% coverage of the eligible population would mean 78.3% of the total population, and 85% of eligibles would be 74%. I do expect that we should be able to reach that 85% (74% of total) by late June or July. 90% (78% of total) would be great but may not be realistic. But either level should have us at something close to herd immunity, at least for the current variants.
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(05-30-2021, 10:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Canada now has the third-highest rate of first-dose vaccination (as % of total population) of all OECD countries. It'll be second-highest sometime this coming week as we'll pass the UK. We should also catch Israel (later) as they have approved vaccines only for 16+, and they have a large percentage of children.
Second-dose vaccinations are well behind the US, though. Too early to predict the progress on those.
I'm estimating the eligible population (12+ years old) at roughly 87%. If that's correct, getting 90% coverage of the eligible population would mean 78.3% of the total population, and 85% of eligibles would be 74%. I do expect that we should be able to reach that 85% (74% of total) by late June or July. 90% (78% of total) would be great but may not be realistic. But either level should have us at something close to herd immunity, at least for the current variants.
I think we’ll level off at 80% of the eligible population, if things go well.
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(05-31-2021, 12:34 PM)jeffster Wrote: (05-30-2021, 10:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: I'm estimating the eligible population (12+ years old) at roughly 87%. If that's correct, getting 90% coverage of the eligible population would mean 78.3% of the total population, and 85% of eligibles would be 74%. I do expect that we should be able to reach that 85% (74% of total) by late June or July. 90% (78% of total) would be great but may not be realistic. But either level should have us at something close to herd immunity, at least for the current variants.
I think we’ll level off at 80% of the eligible population, if things go well.
My guess is higher than your guess. But they are both guesses at this point. Right now, assuming the 87% eligibility is roughly correct, we're at about 65% of eligible population. Israel made it to about 80% in spite of a large ultra-orthodox population that is largely vaccine-hesitant.
I think we can beat that mark, but that does remain to be seen. For now, the vaccination pace is not letting up, which is a positive in itself.
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10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-31 (posting this every two days).
| Region | Cases today | per 100K | 10-day average | per 100K | Weekly trend |
|---|
Peel | 165 | 11.9 | 262 | 18.9 | -46% |
Durham | 67 | 10.4 | 78 | 12.0 | -53% |
Hamilton | 52 | 9.0 | 65 | 11.1 | -18% |
Toronto | 226 | 7.7 | 312 | 10.6 | -47% |
Brant | 9 | 6.6 | 13 | 9.4 | -14% |
Middlesex-London | 20 | 4.9 | 36 | 8.8 | -44% |
York | 85 | 7.7 | 97 | 8.7 | -48% |
Niagara | 43 | 9.6 | 35 | 7.8 | -23% |
Waterloo | 49 | 7.9 | 46 | 7.4 | -14% |
Halton | 26 | 4.7 | 40 | 7.3 | -54% |
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph | 8 | 2.9 | 19 | 7.1 | -55% |
Windsor-Essex | 23 | 5.9 | 27 | 6.9 | -38% |
Ottawa | 50 | 5.0 | 64 | 6.4 | -25% |
Huron Perth | 3 | 3.1 | 6 | 6.2 | +52% |
Simcoe-Muskoka | 20 | 3.7 | 32 | 6.0 | -20% |
Thunder Bay | 9 | 6.0 | 6 | 4.0 | +343% |
Southwestern Ontario | 4 | 2.0 | 8 | 3.8 | -11% |
Lambton | | .0 | 5 | 3.7 | -20% |
Eastern Ontario | 3 | 1.5 | 6 | 2.8 | -9% |
|
Ontario total
| | | | |
-40%
|
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It's probably more fair to compare us to the UK. We don't have as many crazy Karen Facebook, meth smoking, holistic health, politically divided and propaganda rotting brain dead morons as the Americans have, so our vaccine uptake should be higher here. And as much as Doug Ford sucks, he's never said anything like "vaccines are bad, don't get them". The United Kingdom is just shy of 75/50% of of the population having first and second doses, so I think we can achieve the same as our cultures are fairly similar. Anything 70%+ should be enough to minimize spread and take stress off of the healthcare systems in order to allow us to more or less reopen things. Our biggest issue was supply, but that seems to be okay now, so things should improve. Also - at least in Ontario - they're experimenting with both studying vaccine hesitancy and reopening by doing things like allowing spectators into sports games, so that should give even a minor boost to reducing the hesitancy here. They did this in England recently and those experiments have not resulted in any spikes due to the amount of people vaccinated, so we should easily see similar impact here as more of us get sore arms for a day.
As long as enough of us do not fall for Aunt Karen's Facebook posts on how much of an evil communist dictator Trudeau is, we'll probably see a pretty normal end of 2021.
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MONDAY 2021-05-31
Waterloo Region reported 30 new cases for today (8.5% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 39; 278 new cases for the week (-10), averaging 9.8% of active cases. 337 active cases, -133 in the last seven days.
Next testing report on Tuesday.
An average of 4,279 doses of vaccine administered over the past three days, with a seven-day average of 4,401. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-25 (+2 days over the past three). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 19 days (+2 over the past three).
Ontario reported 916 new cases -- under 1,000! -- today with a seven-day average of 1,078 (-76). 1,707 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to a decrease of 804 active cases and a new total of 12,567. -7,471 active cases for the week and 135 deaths (19 per day). 18,226 tests with a positivity rate of 5.03%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.13% for the past seven days, compared to 5.62% for the preceding seven.
New case variants reported today: - B.1.1.7: 910
- B.1.351: 1
- P.1: 8
617 patients in ICU (+3 today, -70 for the week).
97,747 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 131,044. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).
- 165 cases in Peel: 11.9 per 100K
- 67 cases in Durham: 10.4 per 100K
- 43 cases in Niagara: 9.6 per 100K
- 52 cases in Hamilton: 9.0 per 100K
- 49 cases in Waterloo: 7.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
- 226 cases in Toronto: 7.7 per 100K
- 85 cases in York: 7.7 per 100K
- 9 cases in Brant: 6.6 per 100K
- 9 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.0 per 100K
- 23 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.9 per 100K
- 50 cases in Ottawa: 5.0 per 100K
- 20 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.9 per 100K
- 26 cases in Halton: 4.7 per 100K
- 5 cases in Chatham-Kent: 4.7 per 100K
- 20 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.7 per 100K
- 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
- 8 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.9 per 100K
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05-31-2021, 06:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2021, 06:26 PM by plam.)
(05-31-2021, 04:25 PM)tomh009 Wrote: New case variants reported today:- B.1.1.7: 910
- B.1.351: 1
- P.1: 8
617 patients in ICU (+3 today, -70 for the week).
97,747 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 131,044. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).
Things are definitely looking better. June 6 is really soon!
We have suggested names for variants now... Alpha (B117) looks quite dominant. Any idea what the denominator is? Beta (B1351) and Gamma (P1) are barely there and none at all of Delta. Though I heard a rumour that Delta is effectively being not screened for technical reasons, which is really concerning.
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Is Delta the Indian variant? I saw somewhere that they had identified three or four such cases in Ontario, one of them unknown origin, others from travel to India.
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Got my shot today late this afternoon after pre-registering when they opened up for 18+ a few weeks ago. Anecdotally, two of the people within earshot fit the 12-17 category and another woman was 80+ and receiving her first shot.
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(05-31-2021, 11:05 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Is Delta the Indian variant? I saw somewhere that they had identified three or four such cases in Ontario, one of them unknown origin, others from travel to India.
Yes, Delta is the variant formerly known as B.1.617.2. I think they have to do full sequencing to find it now, but they're working on quicker tests.
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Seems like Ford is planning to announce that schools will not be opening anytime soon, but that it "would allow Ontario, which has been under a state of emergency and a stay-at-home order since April 17, to begin the first stage of reopening the economy as early as this Friday": https://twitter.com/l_stone/status/1399730945276715013
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