The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

I suspect there are actually quite a lot of people like her. When I went and got vaccinated, there were a lot of people my age, but there were still people getting vaccinated who were clearly eligible months ago. I was prepared to get vaccinated the day that Health Canada approved the Pfizer vaccine, but other people are going to take longer to come round. I do think one thing that has been lost in the communication to the public is that while we are individually vaccinated and individually benefit, it is also an act that benefits the whole community. It was something I constantly reminded myself as someone who was farther to the back of the queue of eligible people - that even though I wasn't getting my shot just yet, I'm also benefitting from every single other person getting a shot. The corollary is that by getting the shot, I'm benefitting the people around me too. Often times, more outward-focused community-minded motivations like that can resonate with some people/cultures more than the more individual-focused ones.

I think many people can be convinced, especially in Canada. The US is probably more tricky due to radicalization. In the end I'm medium-term optimistic about Canada.

Prof. Tara Moriarty from U of T has been running Zoom Q&A sessions: https://www.utoronto.ca/news/daily-zoom-...9-vaccines, may be useful; the link at the end still seems to work.

Here's a first-person piece in CBC where it talks about someone convincing their parents to get vaccinated: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/first-per...-1.6036728

I don't think there's a mass media Ontario ad. Here's the New Zealand vaccine ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcIQATtAkS0

(and in how to lie with statistics, NZ's fully-vaccinated rate at 3.82% is close to Canada's 3.99% as of yesterday; of course the first dose counts are way apart)

Quebec: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfKl40Hi3pc

I've been meaning to write something comparing the different ads, I have a collection of them. I heard that in Switzerland ads just wouldn't fly.

I am pretty sure I did see an ad for Ontario, but I could be wrong. That said, as for NZ, it’s a country; is Canada not capable of making a commercial for the country?

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-05-27

Waterloo Region reported 54 new cases for today (13.6% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 32; 324 new cases for the week (-11), averaging 9.9% of active cases. 403 active cases, -98 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

5,052 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,778. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (+1 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 17 days (+1).

Not good that the region is getting further and further behind Ontario. I’m having a hard time understanding why we’re struggling at getting enough vaccines (as this seems to be be issue).  It seems we’re not advocating for ourselves enough.

We could end up being one of the last areas to open up.

In addition to the data above, currently an average of about 800 people per day are getting vaccinated outside the region. And our regional case numbers are still substantially lower than the provincial average.

The three-step reopening plan is not being implemented regionally, all regions will move in lockstep.

[ZEBuilder]

Today the region started allowing 12-17 year olds to book appointments to get there shot.

[jeffster]

In addition to the data above, currently an average of about 800 people per day are getting vaccinated outside the region. And our regional case numbers are still substantially lower than the provincial average.

The three-step reopening plan is not being implemented regionally, all regions will move in lockstep.

Do we have a tally of how many have been vaccinated who live in this region? Does that make up the difference?

As fo the three-step reopening plan, I only believe things when I see things. The government changes its mind every other week, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see changes again. Almost a guarantee we’ll see something different than what they’re talking about, and it may be up to local PHU’s to determine what’s best for a city/region.

[taylortbb]

Do we have a tally of how many have been vaccinated who live in this region?  Does that make up the difference?

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...mid_=32238 has your answers.

298,861 doses have been administered to Waterloo Region residents (here or elsewhere). 19,675 of those were second doses though, so the total is 279,186 people that live in Waterloo Region with at least one dose.

According to the dashboard 59% of adults are vaccinated, and 47% of the total population.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-05-28

Waterloo Region reported 31 new cases for today (7.6% of the active cases) and four more for yesterday for 58; 292 new cases for the week (-32), averaging 9.2% of active cases. 391 active cases, -119 in the last seven days.

Only 736 tests per day for the past week, but with a still-dropping average positivity rate of 5.67%.

5,452 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,734. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (+0 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 17 days (+0). Adding in the (net) number of people vaccinated outside the region would bring the date forward by roughly three days.

Ontario reported 1,273 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,353 (-88). 2,362 recoveries and 14 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,103 active cases and a new total of 15,438. -6,762 active cases for the week and 132 deaths (19 per day). 40,666 tests with a positivity rate of just 3.13%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.95%, finally back below the 5% mark again, for the past seven days, compared to 6.17% for the preceding seven.

645 patients in ICU (-5 today, -70 for the week) and a total of 1,023 hospitalized (-242 for the week).

159,775 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 136,475. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

• 268 cases in Peel: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Hamilton: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Niagara: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Huron Perth: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Durham: 11.1 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Brant: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in Ottawa: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Lambton: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Middlesex-London: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Halton: 9.3 per 100K
  
• 269 cases in Toronto: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Waterloo: 7.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 25 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in York: 5.0 per 100K
  

[bgb_ca]

I don't think there's a mass media Ontario ad. Here's the New Zealand vaccine ad:

We received some (paper!) mailers about vaccines, as I recall. But it might have been the region sending them out? I can't remember any more.

I remember a federal one early on near the start, and some regional ones, but I don't remember seeing any from the province.

[danbrotherston]

We received some (paper!) mailers about vaccines, as I recall. But it might have been the region sending them out? I can't remember any more.

I remember a federal one early on near the start, and some regional ones, but I don't remember seeing any from the province.

Province is spending all their marketing efforts on anti-Trudeau ads.

[jeffster]

We received some (paper!) mailers about vaccines, as I recall. But it might have been the region sending them out? I can't remember any more.

I remember a federal one early on near the start, and some regional ones, but I don't remember seeing any from the province.

Speaking of federal ones, they do have a commercial (video) out for Canada. It was playing during the Jays game. I can't recall seeing it before, so it may be new, perhaps it's not though.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-29 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	178	12.9	324	23.5	-47%
Hamilton	71	12.3	82	14.2	-44%
Toronto	228	7.8	387	13.2	-52%
Durham	54	8.4	85	13.1	-35%
Middlesex-London	41	10.1	48	11.9	-47%
Brant	17	12.5	14	10.2	-8%
York	82	7.4	113	10.2	-49%
Niagara	22	4.9	40	8.9	-35%
Halton	37	6.7	48	8.8	-47%
Windsor-Essex	31	8.0	33	8.6	-55%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	23	8.5	23	8.4	-37%
Waterloo	58	9.4	47	7.6	-8%
Ottawa	64	6.4	73	7.3	-27%
Simcoe-Muskoka	45	8.3	37	6.9	-23%
Huron Perth	15	15.3	7	6.9	+12%
Lambton	4	3.1	6	4.7	-35%
Southwestern Ontario	4	2.0	9	4.3	-65%
Eastern Ontario	11	5.4	8	4.0	-49%
Northwestern	1	1.1	3	3.0	-65%
Thunder Bay	3	2.0	4	2.6	+70%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	2	1.2	4	2.3	-24%
Ontario total					-51%

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-05-29

Waterloo Region reported 55 new cases for today (13.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 31; 303 new cases for the week (+11), averaging 9.9% of active cases. 377 active cases, -117 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 1,057 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,248 (-105). 2,057 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,015 active cases and a new total of 14,423. -7,031 active cases for the week and 127 deaths (18 per day). 33,759 tests with a positivity rate of 3.13% (again). The positivity rate is averaging 4.66% for the past seven days, compared to 6.03% for the preceding seven.

626 patients in ICU (-19 today, -80 for the week) and a total of 934 hospitalized (-273 for the week), back below 1,000.

148,972 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 130,595. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

• 15 cases in Huron Perth: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 178 cases in Peel: 12.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Hamilton: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Middlesex-London: 10.1 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Waterloo: 9.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 23 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Durham: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 228 cases in Toronto: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in York: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Halton: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Ottawa: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Niagara: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  

[danbrotherston]

Seems like our numbers are holding steady...not really good. We must be a significantly increasing portion of the cases in all of Ontario.

Do we have any data yet on how effective vaccines are against the new B.1.617 variant that appears to be significantly more transmissible than previous VOCs, given that it is starting to spread here, and we are highly reliant on rolling out vaccines...that's kind of a make or break situation for us I'd think.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-05-30

Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (11.1% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 55; 288 new cases for the week (-15), averaging 9.9% of active cases. 352 active cases, -123 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 1,033 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,154 (-94). 2,067 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,052 active cases and a new total of 13,371. -7,301 active cases for the week -- a drop of more than a third in just one week -- and 130 deaths (19 per day). 26,565 tests with a positivity rate of 3.89%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.44% for the past seven days, compared to 5.86% for the preceding seven.

614 patients in ICU (-12 today, -79 for the week).

144,833 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 131,239. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

• 214 cases in Peel: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Thunder Bay: 12.7 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Hamilton: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Huron Perth: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Durham: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 237 cases in Toronto: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 80 cases in York: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Lambton: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Waterloo: 6.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Halton: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Ottawa: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Niagara: 3.6 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

Seems like our numbers are holding steady...not really good. We must be a significantly increasing portion of the cases in all of Ontario.

Do we have any data yet on how effective vaccines are against the new B.1.617 variant that appears to be significantly more transmissible than previous VOCs, given that it is starting to spread here, and we are highly reliant on rolling out vaccines...that's kind of a make or break situation for us I'd think.

Here is the chart for Waterloo Region. One factor is that the third wave was never as big in our region, so the drop has also been more gradual. The active case count is down from a high of 750 to the current 352, and is continuing to drop steadily.

The early estimates is that the vaccine effectiveness is down only by about 10% (for BioNTech-Pfizer and AZ, presumably others will be similar) so at the moment it does not appear dramatically worse.

Not-yet-peer-reviewed article here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...21257658v1

   

[taylortbb]

144,833 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 131,239. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

Am I reading this correctly that you're just counting all doses as first doses when you say dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06?

29k of the 145k doses administered were second doses, I suspect from areas that were hot spots ramping up second doses (this is up a lot compared to a couple weeks ago).