The COVID-19 pandemic

[taylortbb]

So ... Ontario government ... hello, could we get an updated plan, please?

The supply constraint seems to be in the past now, no more excuses there. Can we actually deliver 250-300K shots per day? If we can, we should be able to easily have everyone (over 18) with at least their first shots by the end of July.

Didn't we already have a new plan announced, Hillier said that he expected everyone to have a first shot by June 20th.

I felt that was a reasonably ambitious plan.

I'd call that announcement more of a target than a plan. The end date sounds great, but how we get there remains too uncertain. The province seems to have downloaded most of that responsibility on to local public health to setup the clinics. While I agree local public health should take the lead, they have the community connections to find space fast and in the right locations, they haven't really communicated what (if anything) the province is doing in support.

Locally though, https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...on-3535321 didn't get as much coverage as I expected. That's the first real specifics about where in Waterloo Region the large clinics will be, and what dates they'll be opening. It also has specifics about capacity of some of the locations. I was happy to see the UW School of Pharmacy will be a 7 days/week public mass vaccination clinic, it's far more transit accessible than the other proposed locations.

[danbrotherston]

Didn't we already have a new plan announced, Hillier said that he expected everyone to have a first shot by June 20th.

I felt that was a reasonably ambitious plan.

I'd call that announcement more of a target than a plan. The end date sounds great, but how we get there remains too uncertain. The province seems to have downloaded most of that responsibility on to local public health to setup the clinics. While I agree local public health should take the lead, they have the community connections to find space fast and in the right locations, they haven't really communicated what (if anything) the province is doing in support.

Locally though, https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...on-3535321 didn't get as much coverage as I expected. That's the first real specifics about where in Waterloo Region the large clinics will be, and what dates they'll be opening. It also has specifics about capacity of some of the locations. I was happy to see the UW School of Pharmacy will be a 7 days/week public mass vaccination clinic, it's far more transit accessible than the other proposed locations.

I generally agree with everything you said, but this is nothing new for our provincial government, I just took it for granted that the "plan" would consist mostly of aspirations that depend on others getting stuff right with no help to achieve.

[tomh009]

Yeah, not exactly a plan. I'll add my highlighting to the Kitchener Today article excerpt:

The recent approval of new vaccines will accelerate Ontario's immunization plan, the province said Friday as the man in charge of the rollout expressed optimism all adults could receive the first dose by June 20.

The government said under the current plan, seniors aged 75 and older will start getting the shot in April, while everyone 60 and older will receive the first dose by the end of May or early June, if not earlier.

It sure doesn't look like this is a plan for getting everyone vaccinated by June. Hopefully they are working on one.

[danbrotherston]

Yeah, not exactly a plan. I'll add my highlighting to the Kitchener Today article excerpt:

The recent approval of new vaccines will accelerate Ontario's immunization plan, the province said Friday as the man in charge of the rollout expressed optimism all adults could receive the first dose by June 20.

The government said under the current plan, seniors aged 75 and older will start getting the shot in April, while everyone 60 and older will receive the first dose by the end of May or early June, if not earlier.

It sure doesn't look like this is a plan for getting everyone vaccinated by June. Hopefully they are working on one.

I hope I'm not disappointed.

I could move to Quebec really easy.

[plam]

Quebec's great and somehow they seem to now be dealing better with COVID. Also Montreal is of course much better for active transportation than anywhere in Ontario. But the health system in general is under resourced.

[danbrotherston]

Quebec's great and somehow they seem to now be dealing better with COVID. Also Montreal is of course much better for active transportation than anywhere in Ontario. But the health system in general is under resourced.

Yup...nowhere is perfect, but some places are less imperfect than Ontario.

I don't want to say too much about my personal life, but we're planning on moving out of KW in the near future (if not for COVID we'd probably already be gone), Montreal is on the list of options, but not at the top at the moment.

[tomh009]

I don't want to say too much about my personal life, but we're planning on moving out of KW in the near future (if not for COVID we'd probably already be gone), Montreal is on the list of options, but not at the top at the moment.

Have never met you in person (I think!) but I'll say that we'll miss you on this forum!

[ac3r]

New vaccination sites have been announced, with the Langs Health Centre opening today: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/Modules/...c04cb31333

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-03-12

Waterloo Region reported 48 new cases for today (14.3% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 28; 288 new cases for the week (+17), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 344 active cases, -52 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,787 tests per day for the past week for a positivity rate of 2.30%.

Ontario reported 1,371 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,269 (+17). 1,124 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to an increase of 229 active cases and a new total of 11,512. +1,134 active cases for the week and 81 deaths (12 per day). 64,611 tests for a positivity rate of 2.12%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.67% for the past seven days, compared to 2.21% for the preceding seven.

282 patients in ICU (+5 today, +2 for the week) and a total of 676 hospital beds in use (+33 for the week).

• 52 cases in Thunder Bay: 34.7 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Lambton: 20.6 per 100K
  
• 109 cases in Hamilton: 18.8 per 100K
  
• 225 cases in Peel: 16.3 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Northwestern: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 371 cases in Toronto: 12.7 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 111 cases in York: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Sudbury: 9.5 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Chatham-Kent: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Ottawa: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Middlesex-London: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Halton: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Waterloo: 5.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 35 cases in Durham: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Niagara: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[danbrotherston]

I don't want to say too much about my personal life, but we're planning on moving out of KW in the near future (if not for COVID we'd probably already be gone), Montreal is on the list of options, but not at the top at the moment.

Have never met you in person (I think!) but I'll say that we'll miss you on this forum!

Thanks! I appreciate that.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-03-13

Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (11.2% of the active cases) and three more for yesterday for a total of 51; 276 new cases for the week (-12), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 351 active cases, -54 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

1,452 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 1,237. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2022-01-19 (-24 days).

Ontario reported 1,468 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,337 (+68). 1,151 recoveries and 11 deaths translated to an increase of 306 active cases and a new total of 11,818. +1,608 active cases for the week and 86 deaths (12 per day). 58,431 tests for a positivity rate of 2.51%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.79% for the past seven days, compared to 2.17% for the preceding seven.

275 patients in ICU (-7 today, -3 for the week) and a total of 689 hospital beds in use (+69 for the week).

53,586 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 36,583. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-11-12 (-14 days).

• 66 cases in Thunder Bay: 44.0 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Brant: 17.6 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Chatham-Kent: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Lambton: 16.8 per 100K
  
• 226 cases in Peel: 16.4 per 100K
  
• 168 cases in York: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Northwestern: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 381 cases in Toronto: 13.0 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Sudbury: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 8.8 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Halton: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Waterloo: 8.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 82 cases in Ottawa: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Niagara: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Hamilton: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Durham: 5.9 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[danbrotherston]

SATURDAY 2021-03-13

Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (11.2% of the active cases) and three more for yesterday for a total of 51; 276 new cases for the week (-12), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 351 active cases, -54 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

1,452 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 1,237. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2022-01-19.
....

I have never found this type of stat to be particularly useful, obviously the pace will change. What is more interesting is is the pace increasing, and by what type of function, and what are the limiting factors.

Given that the plan is to vaccinate everyone (first dose) by June 20th, what pace do we need to hit to achieve that.  Would be nice to have more data and plans from the region, what is the capacity of their centres, what is their plan for getting to June 20th.

[ac3r]

One year later: Where COVID hit Waterloo Region by neighbourhood: https://outline.com/mHEyeJ

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-03-13

Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (11.2% of the active cases) and three more for yesterday for a total of 51; 276 new cases for the week (-12), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 351 active cases, -54 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

1,452 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 1,237. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2022-01-19.
....

I have never found this type of stat to be particularly useful, obviously the pace will change. What is more interesting is is the pace increasing, and by what type of function, and what are the limiting factors.

Given that the plan is to vaccinate everyone (first dose) by June 20th, what pace do we need to hit to achieve that.  Would be nice to have more data and plans from the region, what is the capacity of their centres, what is their plan for getting to June 20th.

Alas, we have no plan from the province (who has apparently dumped the planning on the health units now) or from our local health unit. So, we don't know how many doses they plan to deliver when, or when they expect to complete the inoculation of what demographic segment.

Where did you see the June 20th plan? The Ontario web pages still talk about delivering the first dose to over-60s by the end of June, which is a whole lot different.

The projected date in my post is clearly meaningless, but it highlights the gap between the people's expectations of being vaccinated and the current pace of delivery. I expect the date to move forward reasonably quickly, but without knowledge of the plans, I really don't know how quickly. My post does include both the current day's number of doses as well as the weekly average, so that provides some indication. And there are various vaccine trackers out there, so I really don't want to build one, just highlight what's going on.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-14 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Thunder Bay	40	26.7	58	38.7	-20%
Lambton	38	29.0	23	17.2	+34%
Peel	352	25.5	234	16.9	+38%
Toronto	545	18.6	388	13.2	+24%
York	163	14.7	122	11.0	+31%
Hamilton	93	16.1	63	10.8	+28%
Brant	23	16.9	13	9.9	+83%
Northwestern	6	6.8	8	9.2	+37%
Windsor-Essex	28	7.2	33	8.4	+20%
Halton	38	6.9	42	7.6	-8%
Simcoe-Muskoka	50	9.3	39	7.1	+33%
Sudbury	49	12.6	28	7.1	+89%
Waterloo	48	7.8	43	7.0	-4%
Durham	55	8.5	45	7.0	-13%
Chatham-Kent	3	2.8	7	6.9	+157%
Ottawa	83	8.3	64	6.5	+41%
Eastern Ontario	12	5.9	12	6.0	+12%
Niagara	48	10.7	27	5.9	+54%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	9	3.3	15	5.6	-51%
Middlesex-London	13	3.2	21	5.2	+20%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	3	1.8	9	5.2	-12%
Huron Perth	7	7.1	4	3.9	-11%
Southwestern Ontario	8	4.0	8	3.8	+109%
Ontario total					+23%