The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-02-18

Waterloo Region reported 38 new cases today (11.8% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 35; 267 new cases for the week (-29), averaging 10.1% of active cases. 339 active cases, -63 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,038 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,016 (+12). 1,277 recoveries and 44 deaths translated to a drop of 283 active cases and a new total of 10,702. -2,151 active cases for the week and 159 deaths (23 per day). 56,165 tests for a positivity rate of 1.85%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.40% for the past seven days, compared to 2.68% for the preceding seven.

In the past week: 12 cases of B.1.1.7 (UK), seven cases of B.1.351 (SA) and one case of P.1 (BR) variant.

277 patients in ICU (-21 today, -22 for the week). Total hospital population of 758 (-125 for the week).

• 25 cases in Northwestern: 28.5 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Thunder Bay: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 376 cases in Toronto: 12.8 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Lambton: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 122 cases in York: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 142 cases in Peel: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Hamilton: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Waterloo: 7.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 20 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Halton: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Ottawa: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Durham: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Brant: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-02-19

Waterloo Region reported 42 new cases today (12.5% of the active cases) and two fewer for yesterday for a total of 36; 251 new cases for the week (-16), averaging 9.9% of active cases. 341 active cases, -71 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,623 tests per day for the past week, with a positivity rate of 2.21%.

Ontario reported 1,150 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,026 (+10). 1,255 recoveries and 47 deaths translated to a drop of 152 active cases and a new total of 10,550. -1,946 active cases for the week and 188 deaths (27 per day). 65,372 tests for a positivity rate of 1.76%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.41% for the past seven days, compared to 2.58% for the preceding seven.

In the past week: 110 cases of B.1.1.7 (UK), six cases of B.1.351 (SA) and one case of P.1 (BR) variant.

269 patients in ICU (-8 today, -26 for the week). Total hospital population of 689 (-74 for the week).

• 264 cases in Peel: 19.1 per 100K
  
• 376 cases in Toronto: 12.8 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 108 cases in York: 9.7 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Hamilton: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 73 cases in Ottawa: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Halton: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Waterloo: 6.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 41 cases in Durham: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Lambton: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Northwestern: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Niagara: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-20 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	228	16.5	209	15.1	-12%
Thunder Bay	41	27.3	21	13.9	+26%
Northwestern	20	22.8	12	13.7	+57%
York	132	11.9	123	11.1	-1%
Toronto	331	11.3	294	10.0	+37%
Lambton	14	10.7	11	8.6	-22%
Windsor-Essex	31	8.0	32	8.2	+2%
Hamilton	86	14.8	42	7.3	+53%
Waterloo	38	6.2	40	6.4	-27%
Durham	47	7.3	39	6.0	+1%
Halton	40	7.3	33	5.9	+2%
Brant	17	12.5	8	5.9	+51%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	11	4.0	16	5.7	-59%
Simcoe-Muskoka	36	6.7	31	5.7	+8%
Ottawa	54	5.4	51	5.1	+7%
Niagara	13	2.9	19	4.2	-49%
Eastern Ontario	8	3.9	9	4.2	-24%
Middlesex-London	24	5.9	14	3.6	-14%
Huron Perth	3	3.1	3	3.5	-74%
Southwestern Ontario	4	2.0	6	2.9	-63%
Ontario total					+10%

The trend figures are not nearly as green as they were just a week ago ...

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-02-20

Waterloo Region reported 46 new cases today (13.5% of the active cases) and no more for yesterday for a total of 42; 258 new cases for the week (+7), averaging 10.4% of active cases. 318 active cases, -76 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,228 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,016 (-10). 1,313 recoveries and 28 deaths translated to a drop of 113 active cases and a new total of 10,437. -1,906 active cases for the week and 197 deaths (28 per day). 57,194 tests for a positivity rate of 2.15%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.40% for the past seven days, compared to 2.58% for the preceding seven.

In the past week there have been 89 cases (-21) of B.1.1.7 (UK), six cases (+0) of B.1.351 (SA) and one case (+0) of P.1 (BR) variant.

263 patients in ICU (-6 today, -24 for the week). Total hospital population of 699 (-87 for the week).

• 41 cases in Thunder Bay: 27.3 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Northwestern: 22.8 per 100K
  
• 228 cases in Peel: 16.5 per 100K
  
• 86 cases in Hamilton: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 132 cases in York: 11.9 per 100K
  
• 331 cases in Toronto: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Lambton: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Halton: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Durham: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Waterloo: 6.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 24 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Ottawa: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Niagara: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

The big downhill is good ... but I don't like the look of that ski jump at the bottom!

   

   

[ac3r]

USA now vaccinating more people against COVID-19 in one day than Canada has in total: https://www.cp24.com/news/usa-now-vaccin...-1.5317891

At the start of this pandemic I was quite pleased with our response (for the most part). A year later, our ability to control this virus and vaccinate our population is absolutely abysmal. They managed to vaccinate 1.7 million people a day in the USA last week whereas we've only managed to vaccinate 1.4 million people in a span of close to 3 months. It's not just in the USA where they have production facilities that give them some edge over us either. Over the weekend, two friends in I have in Europe (early 20s/Germany and 30s/France) were vaccinated, the former sitting in a park, drinking beer with friends hours later. Nobody in Canada in these age groups will have any hope whatsoever of being vaccinated for months to come. This article also mentions that we're expected to administer 1.5 million doses over the course of 3 weeks! Why do we need 3 weeks to vaccinate even less people than the USA manages to do in a single day? It's an absolute joke.

[tomh009]

Why do we need 3 weeks to vaccinate even less people than the USA manages to do in a single day? It's an absolute joke.

Is this a serious question? Or are you just complaining about the fact that we are not receiving as much vaccines as the Americans are keeping for themselves?

[plam]

USA now vaccinating more people against COVID-19 in one day than Canada has in total: https://www.cp24.com/news/usa-now-vaccin...-1.5317891

At the start of this pandemic I was quite pleased with our response (for the most part). A year later, our ability to control this virus and vaccinate our population is absolutely abysmal. They managed to vaccinate 1.7 million people a day in the USA last week whereas we've only managed to vaccinate 1.4 million people in a span of close to 3 months. It's not just in the USA where they have production facilities that give them some edge over us either. Over the weekend, two friends in I have in Europe (early 20s/Germany and 30s/France) were vaccinated, the former sitting in a park, drinking beer with friends hours later. Nobody in Canada in these age groups will have any hope whatsoever of being vaccinated for months to come. This article also mentions that we're expected to administer 1.5 million doses over the course of 3 weeks! Why do we need 3 weeks to vaccinate even less people than the USA manages to do in a single day? It's an absolute joke.

I still say Canada's not doing great but it has done better than much of Europe in terms of overall COVID impact. Vaccines aren't the whole story, and for instance Australia and New Zealand are only starting to vaccinate now: there are probably less than 1000 vaccines administered in NZ yet.

EDIT: David Fisman from the University of Toronto adds:

“It looks more like we’ve gotten what we had been expecting, with occasional hiccups,” he said. “So I think most of the sound and fury really relates to just political point scoring. Is there anything the federal government realistically could have done to have received more vaccine earlier and magically stopped those hiccups?”

(quoted in NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/18/world...virus.html, which is fairly comprehensive.)

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-02-21

Waterloo Region reported 49 new cases today (15.1% of the active cases) and six more for yesterday for a total of 52; 278 new cases for the week (+20), averaging 11.6% of active cases. 318 active cases, -68 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,087 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,031 (+15). 1,140 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to a drop of 66 active cases and a new total of 10,371. -1,676 active cases for the week and 168 deaths (24 per day). 48,178 tests for a positivity rate of 2.26%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.43% for the past seven days, compared to 2.45% for the preceding seven.

In the past week there have been 88 cases (-1) of B.1.1.7 (UK), three cases (-3) of B.1.351 (SA) and zero cases (-1) of P.1 (BR) variant.

277 patients in ICU (+14 today, -15 for the week). Total hospital population of 660 (-87 for the week).

• 31 cases in Thunder Bay: 20.7 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Huron Perth: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 344 cases in Toronto: 11.7 per 100K
  
• 156 cases in Peel: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Brant: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 122 cases in York: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Northwestern: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Lambton: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Durham: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Ottawa: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Waterloo: 7.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 25 cases in Niagara: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Hamilton: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Halton: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

The numbers are no longer dropping the way they were. Active cases are still slowly creeping down but the new cases are no longer on the downslope, at least for now.

Still, one encouraging thing is that the variants are not spreading wildly at the moment. The UK variant is accounting only for about 1% of the cases and not shooting up. And both the South African and Brazilian variants have small enough numbers that they may actually be contained. Maybe.

[plam]

The numbers are no longer dropping the way they were. Active cases are still slowly creeping down but the new cases are no longer on the downslope, at least for now.

Still, one encouraging thing is that the variants are not spreading wildly at the moment. The UK variant is accounting only for about 1% of the cases and not shooting up. And both the South African and Brazilian variants have small enough numbers that they may actually be contained. Maybe.

Looks like a plateau at September levels, probably school-associated. Hard to tell if the UK number is stable or whether it's going to shoot up.

[tomh009]

Yeah, too early to tell on the variants. Cautiously optimistic, but need to wait and see what happens in the next week or two.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-22 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Thunder Bay	32	21.3	23	15.1	+39%
Peel	215	15.6	205	14.8	-12%
Northwestern	26	29.7	13	14.7	+55%
York	87	7.8	120	10.8	-8%
Toronto	325	11.1	301	10.3	+26%
Lambton	10	7.6	11	8.7	-13%
Windsor-Essex	10	2.6	30	7.8	-17%
Hamilton	56	9.7	42	7.3	+28%
Waterloo	48	7.8	41	6.6	-9%
Simcoe-Muskoka	47	8.7	34	6.2	+31%
Durham	45	7.0	40	6.2	+12%
Brant	6	4.4	8	6.2	+39%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	18	6.6	16	5.7	-39%
Halton	28	5.1	31	5.7	-11%
Ottawa	51	5.1	53	5.3	+16%
Niagara	14	3.1	19	4.3	-32%
Huron Perth	2	2.0	4	4.1	-11%
Eastern Ontario	5	2.5	8	3.9	-35%
Middlesex-London	9	2.2	14	3.4	-25%
Southwestern Ontario	1	.5	5	2.5	-84%
Ontario total					+3%

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-02-22

Waterloo Region reported 28 new cases today (8.8% of the active cases) and two less for yesterday for a total of 47; 273 new cases for the week (-5), averaging 11.7% of active cases. 319 active cases, -38 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,058 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,045 (+14). 1,083 recoveries and 11 deaths translated to a drop of 36 active cases and a new total of 10,335. -1,390 active cases for the week and 166 deaths (24 per day). 31,163 tests for a positivity rate of 3.40%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.46% for the past seven days, compared to 2.54% for the preceding seven.

In the past week there have been 88 cases (+0) of B.1.1.7 (UK), six cases (-1) of B.1.351 (SA) and zero cases (+0) of P.1 (BR) variant.

280 patients in ICU (+3 today, -13 for the week).

• 26 cases in Northwestern: 29.7 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Thunder Bay: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 215 cases in Peel: 15.6 per 100K
  
• 325 cases in Toronto: 11.1 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Hamilton: 9.7 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.7 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in York: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Waterloo: 7.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Durham: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Ottawa: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Halton: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Niagara: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Windsor-Essex: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 0.5 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[plam]

I heard there were 3 cases at Sir John A MacDonald high school and 4 at the retirement home across the street, along with two at Resurrection.