The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

COVID-19 cases in Canada could rise to 60,000 per day by end of year, Dr. Tam warns: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...d-of-year/

I wonder what data (until what date) was used for the projections. In the last week the number of cases in most provinces has been more stable. Still high, but the number of cases isn't getting inexorably higher each day. If this pattern holds, we should be able to avoid the kinds of numbers the projection is highlighting.

It's all about human behaviour at this point: if people smarten up and minimize their contacts, we can turn this trend around. But that's a big "if" at the moment.

I dunno...doesn't take reading the comments for very long to realize that human's are the worst and their behaviour will lead to the worst outcome.

As for the stability, yes, we've had a number of days of stability, but we had that before too...it doesn't mean a turnaround. I see no indication that behaviour has changed. In fact it was exactly a few days of stability a month or so ago that led Ford's team to clami they were about to turn around....and we see where that got us.

That being said, while it's possible we could get to 60k per day, I think it's unlikely. Things that will change our behaviour...freezer trucks outside hospitals...and by that I mean, if things get bad enough, it will turn around--that's long before 60k per day. Of course, it hasn't worked in many US states so maybe I'm being overly optimistic.

[tomh009]

That being said, while it's possible we could get to 60k per day, I think it's unlikely. Things that will change our behaviour...freezer trucks outside hospitals...and by that I mean, if things get bad enough, it will turn around--that's long before 60k per day. Of course, it hasn't worked in many US states so maybe I'm being overly optimistic.

I think that's really it: asking people to change doesn't help much at this point (people that are willing to listen are already behaving well), the remaining population needs some shock treatment to change their ways. The question is what is enough of a shock? Rapidly climbing numbers? Massive projections? Hospitals overflowing? Morgue trucks lined up?

I hope that we can see change earlier in that list rather than later. We'll have to wait and see. BC and a few other provinces are still going up quickly, even if Ontario looks more stable at the moment.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2020-11-20

Waterloo Region reported 40 new cases for today (11.5% of the active cases).  328 new cases for the week (-12), averaging 14.0% of active cases. 333 active cases (+41 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,255 tests in the past week, for a positivity rate of 3.75%.

Ontario reported 1,418 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,373 (+3). 1,415 recoveries and eight deaths translated to a drop of five active cases, and a current total of 12,623. +993 active cases for the week, and 139 deaths. 48,173 tests resulted in a 2.94% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.67% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count dropped to 142 (-4) and the total hospital bed occupancy dropped to 518 (+66b for the week).

• 400 cases in Peel: 26.6 per 100K population
  
• 393 cases in Toronto: 13.6 per 100K
  
• 168 cases in York: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Ottawa: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Durham: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Windsor-Essex
  
• 37 cases in Middlesex-London
  
• 36 cases in Hamilton: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Halton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 21 cases in Niagara: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Grey-Bruce
  
• 28 cases in Waterloo: 4.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Ottawa back up to 77; the GTA is at 1,042 cases. And now many other regions also at 20+ new cases.

[neonjoe]

They just announced that we are in Red level as of Monday.

[ac3r]

It's all about human behaviour at this point

That seems to be one of the biggest driving factors with the increase in cases, apart from certain regions not having sufficient resources to deal with it (Brampton, according to a Torstar article today). Add on private Thanksgiving, Diwali, Christmas, New Years Eve, regular party events etc...it's likely going to be a bad few months. Just look at how bad the cases got in Alberta right after Thanksgiving:

[ac3r]

1'588 new cases and 21 deaths throughout Ontario today: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5811300

The Walrus has also published a good reminder about caring for our mental health as we go into a pandemic winter: https://thewalrus.ca/the-mental-health-t...ic-winter/

[panamaniac]

I guess we’ll see 2000 per day before the new restrictions show any effect.  (If they show any effect ...)

[jeffster]

Not a surprise of the increase of numbers, which will likely continue to rise over the next 2 or 3 weeks at minimum, due to Diwali celebrations last week. Peel Region will be hit the hardest, and in particular, Brampton.

[tomh009]

I guess we’ll see 2000 per day before the new restrictions show any effect.  (If they show any effect ...)

Maybe. There are signs that the sharp increases are dampening. The increase in the active caseload averaged 2.7% per day in the past week, as compared to 3.5% the week before. Today's 1,588 cases is a new record, but it's only seven cases more than the count a week ago. And both the positivity rate and the new cases as % of actives are edging down.

Let's see what kind of data next week brings.

   

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-11-21

Waterloo Region reported 47 new cases for today (14.1% of the active cases).  320 new cases for the week (-8), averaging 13.3% of active cases. 336 active cases (+19 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,588 new cases today -- a new high, but only seven cases more than one week ago -- with a seven-day average of 1,374 (+1). 1,363 recoveries and 21 deaths translated to an increase of 204 active cases, and a current total of 12,827. +639 active cases for the week, and 140 deaths. 46,671 tests resulted in a 3.40% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.65% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is back up to 146 (+4) but the total hospital bed occupancy dropped to 513 (+34 for the week).

• 522 cases in Peel: 34.8 per 100K population
  
• 450 cases in Toronto: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 153 cases in York: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Durham: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Halton: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Hamilton: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Ottawa: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Niagara: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Middlesex-London
  
• 26 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Waterloo: 6.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Ottawa back into the 30s; the GTA is at 1,215 cases, with probably a third of those in Brampton.

[panamaniac]

SATURDAY 2020-11-21

Waterloo Region reported 47 new cases for today (14.1% of the active cases).  320 new cases for the week (-8), averaging 13.3% of active cases. 336 active cases (+19 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,588 new cases today -- a new high, but only seven cases more than one week ago -- with a seven-day average of 1,374 (+1). 1,363 recoveries and 21 deaths translated to an increase of 204 active cases, and a current total of 12,827. +639 active cases for the week, and 140 deaths. 46,671 tests resulted in a 3.40% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.65% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is back up to 146 (+4) but the total hospital bed occupancy dropped to 513 (+34 for the week).

• 522 cases in Peel: 34.8 per 100K population
  
• 450 cases in Toronto: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 153 cases in York: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Durham: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Halton: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Hamilton: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Ottawa: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Niagara: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Middlesex-London
  
• 26 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Waterloo: 6.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Ottawa back into the 30s; the GTA is at 1,215 cases, with probably a third of those in Brampton.

Ottawa seems all over the map.  I'm wondering whether it doesn't reflect variations in the number of tests being done?

[tomh009]

Ottawa back into the 30s; the GTA is at 1,215 cases, with probably a third of those in Brampton.

Ottawa seems all over the map.  I'm wondering whether it doesn't reflect variations in the number of tests being done?

I looked on their web site, and Ottawa Public Health publishes a lot of data. Unfortunately parts of it lag about a week behind so not useful for this question.

The testing pattern is clear, though: they are averaging about 1,700 tests/day (similar to Waterloo Region on a per capita basis) but the weekends are about half that; those end up being processed on Sunday and Monday -- and reported on Monday and Tuesday. So, I don't think test volumes are the answer here.

But, in the end, the sample sizes in Ottawa are fairly small, the same as here, so more variation is to be expected. The seven-day averages will be muc more useful in gauging progress.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-11-22

Waterloo Region reported 61 new cases for today (18.2% of the active cases).  314 new cases for the week (-6), averaging 12.9% of active cases. 341 active cases (-19 in the last seven days).

The drop in active cases is a positive sign, but, still, at best we are treading water at this point.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,534 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,409 (+35). 1,429 recoveries and 14 deaths translated to an increase of 91 active cases, and a current total of 12,918. +533 active cases for the week, and 125 deaths. 46,389 tests resulted in a 3.31% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.69% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up a notch to 147 (+1).

• 490 cases in Peel: 32.7 per 100K population
  
• 460 cases in Toronto: 15.8 per 100K
  
• 130 cases in York: 11.7 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Hamilton: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Durham: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Halton: 9.5 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Ottawa: 3.2 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
  
• 29 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Niagara: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Waterloo: 8.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Ottawa staying in the 30s; the GTA slightly down at 1,160 cases.

[tomh009]

-70C seems pretty extreme for most facilities. Would they just store it on dry ice or something?

One interesting quote from an article on the vaccines in today's G&M:

Acuitas Therapeutics in Vancouver licenses its technology to make the tiny lipid nanoparticles that contain the RNA in the Pfizer vaccine. President and CEO Thomas Madden said the two vaccines are similar enough that Pfizer’s will likely turn out to be just as viable as Moderna’s under the same storage conditions.

If this is true, and Pfizer/BioNTech is just being super-conservative for now, this would be good news instead.

That said, some of the Ebola vaccines also require -70C, and they have been successfully distributed and delivered in the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, where the facilities are not nearly at the same level as here.

[danbrotherston]

-70C seems pretty extreme for most facilities. Would they just store it on dry ice or something?

One interesting quote from an article on the vaccines in today's G&M:

Acuitas Therapeutics in Vancouver licenses its technology to make the tiny lipid nanoparticles that contain the RNA in the Pfizer vaccine. President and CEO Thomas Madden said the two vaccines are similar enough that Pfizer’s will likely turn out to be just as viable as Moderna’s under the same storage conditions.

If this is true, and Pfizer/BioNTech is just being super-conservative for now, this would be good news instead.

That said, some of the Ebola vaccines also require -70C, and they have been successfully distributed and delivered in the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, where the facilities are not nearly at the same level as here.

Yes, it was pointed out in the video as well...-70C is just the temperature that they know the vaccine will be stable at.  It is not necessarily the temperature required for it to be stable--but we don't have the time right now to test it at other temperatures.

That being said, I really have no idea how they know -70C or why Moderna knows that -20C is fine for theirs.