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(10-07-2020, 12:45 PM)jamincan Wrote: (10-07-2020, 12:38 PM)ijmorlan Wrote: Appointments are better than waiting in line. Waiting in line is just a pointless waste of time. The one thing I will say for it is that the people who get tested are the ones who feel it’s important enough to wait in line, rather than the ones who click the button before everybody else does.
Either way, it’s clear a massive expansion of testing capacity is needed. It should be more or less on demand; and they should be tracking the extent to which people aren’t able to get tested. I'm not disagreeing that appointment is better than waiting in line, but there is a side-effect to this, and I fear it will be at the expense of government accountability. You can't hold someone to account for a problem you don't know about.
One note from today's Record: they are seeing about 20% no-shows for the appointments in the region. They believe this is mostly people tryign to book in multiple locations and then only showing up for one.
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THURSDAY 2020-10-08
Waterloo Region reported seven new cases for today (5.6% of the active cases) -- but with five additional cases for yesterday (now 13 cases total, 9.5% of actives). 99 new cases for the week (-6), averaging 10.0% of active cases. 124 active cases (-37 in the last seven days).
Next testing report on Friday.
Ontario reported 797 new cases today -- a new high! -- with a seven-day average of 642 (+35), another new high. 695 recoveries and four deaths translated to an increase of 98 active cases, and a current total of 5,442. A weekly total change of +582 active cases (net). 48,488 tests (a new high) for a 1.64% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.51% for the past seven days.
ICU patient count was up to 47 (+4) and the total hospital population was up to 206. The hospitalization numbers lag the new case/active case numbers but the impact is showing now, both are nearly 4x what they were a month ago.
- 265 cases in Toronto: 5.6 per 100K population
- 182 cases in Ottawa: 18.2 per 100K
- 134 cases in Peel: 13.4 per 100K
- 78 cases in York: 7.1 per 100K
- 33 cases in Halton: 6.0 per 100K
- 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.4 per 100K
- 22 cases in Durham: 3.4 per 100K
- 10 cases in Waterloo: 1.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
Ottawa seems to be out of control.
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Ottawa due to social gatherings, apparently. Testing and tracing are both a mess too, apparently.
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(10-08-2020, 12:33 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Ottawa due to social gatherings, apparently. Testing and tracing are both a mess too, apparently.
Indeed, I see constant news feed items about Ottawa social gatherings resulting in hundreds of cases. I had assumed it was simply bias in my feed that they were always from Ottawa, but it seems to reflect the real results...I have no idea why that is happening in Ottawa however.
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10-08-2020, 05:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2020, 05:47 PM by panamaniac.)
(10-08-2020, 01:24 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: (10-08-2020, 12:33 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Ottawa due to social gatherings, apparently. Testing and tracing are both a mess too, apparently.
Indeed, I see constant news feed items about Ottawa social gatherings resulting in hundreds of cases. I had assumed it was simply bias in my feed that they were always from Ottawa, but it seems to reflect the real results...I have no idea why that is happening in Ottawa however.
Well, given Ottawa’s reputation as a major party town ...
Seriously, I suspect that it may have a social/cultural/economic dimension to it that would make for an uncomfortable conversation, such that turning a blind eye while hoping things improve has been easier.
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(10-08-2020, 03:07 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Going to an indoor wedding (or say, a SCOTUS nomination ceremony) WHEN YOU HAVE SYMPTOMS is wilful negligence, something someone should be legally liable for.
Turns out that this has poor second-order effects in that it makes public health much more difficult. See HIV.
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(10-08-2020, 05:45 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Well, given Ottawa’s reputation as a major party town ...
I always thought a good time in Ottawa was a weekend in Montreal? 
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(10-08-2020, 06:40 PM)plam Wrote: (10-08-2020, 03:07 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Going to an indoor wedding (or say, a SCOTUS nomination ceremony) WHEN YOU HAVE SYMPTOMS is wilful negligence, something someone should be legally liable for.
Turns out that this has poor second-order effects in that it makes public health much more difficult. See HIV.
It is entirely possible that that is the case, I haven't seen any research.
But it still doesn't sit well with me.
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10-08-2020, 07:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2020, 07:25 PM by panamaniac.)
(10-08-2020, 07:04 PM)tomh009 Wrote: (10-08-2020, 05:45 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Well, given Ottawa’s reputation as a major party town ...
I always thought a good time in Ottawa was a weekend in Montreal? Not so much any more, although we’re still known, with a touch of exaggeration, as “the town that fun forgot”.
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FRIDAY 2020-10-09
Waterloo Region reported 10 new cases for today (8.6% of the active cases) -- but with seven additional cases for yesterday (now 12 cases total, 9.2% of actives). 107 new cases for the week (+8), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 116 active cases (-35 in the last seven days).
An average of 1,400 tests for the past seven days, with positivity averaging 1.09%.
Ontario reported 939 new cases today -- here we go! -- with a seven-day average of 672 (+30), a big jump to a new high. 724 recoveries and five deaths translated to an increase of 210 active cases, and a current total of 5,652, now well above the spring peak. A weekly total change of +564 active cases (net). 44,914 tests for a 2.09% positivity rate. It's been over four months since the positivity rate last exceeded 2%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.55% for the past seven days.
ICU patient count was steady at 47 (+0) but the total hospital population was up to 225 (+19).
- 265 cases in Toronto: 5.6 per 100K population
- 150 cases in Peel: 15.0 per 100K
- 126 cases in Ottawa: 12.6 per 100K
- 68 cases in York: 6.1 per 100K
- 59 cases in Halton: 10.3 per 100K
- 40 cases in Hamilton: 6.9 per 100K
- 32 cases in Durham: 5.0 per 100K
- 28 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.9 per 100K
- 24 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.0 per 100K
- 13 cases in Waterloo: 2.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
Waterloo Region seems to be holding the line for now. Will it last, though?
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(10-09-2020, 11:29 AM)tomh009 Wrote: FRIDAY 2020-10-09
Ontario reported 939 new cases today -- here we go! -- with a seven-day average of 672 (+30), a big jump to a new high. 724 recoveries and five deaths translated to an increase of 210 active cases, and a current total of 5,652, now well above the spring peak.
Our spring peak was 5675 so we are just below the spring peak. Tommorrow would be the day that we pass it.
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My bad, thanks for spotting that.
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The three problem areas are going back to a Modified Stage 2 tomorrow.
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