The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Speaking of second wave, it's arrived alright. While the US (and a number of other countries) are still trying to control the first wave, the pandemic has returned with a vengeance in a lot of countries that originally got hit much earlier.

   

   

   

Countries like Japan and South Korea got hit again as well, but have wrestled it down a second time, with infections trending the right way.

   

   

[danbrotherston]

Speaking of second wave, it's arrived alright. While the US (and a number of other countries) are still trying to control the first wave, the pandemic has returned with a vengeance in a lot of countries that originally got hit much earlier.







Countries like Japan and South Korea got hit again as well, but have wrestled it down a second time, with infections trending the right way.

The waves of a pandemic are interesting, because AFAIK there is nothing about the virus itself which would lead to this effect, I assume it must be driven almost entirely by human behaviour...I'm tempted to try and model this, I am curious about what it is that humans are doing that causes this, because in many (most?) cases, the second spike is far far larger than the initial.

[tomh009]

I agree very much, it's the humans, not the virus. In some cases (such as Israel) the virus has spread into communities that never had it before. But in most cases it is the relaxation of behaviour that allows the virus to spread again rapidly. An that's the same thing that's happening in selected areas in Ontario, too.

Oh yeah, all the charts are from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2020-09-15

Waterloo Region reported three new cases today (0.2% of the total and 4.4% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 15.6% of active cases over the past seven days. 68 active cases (+0).  56 new cases for the week.

4,328 tests in the past week for a 1.29% positivity rate.

Ontario reported 251 new cases today with a seven-day average of 219, still going up. 117 recoveries and four deaths translated to an increase of 130 active cases and a current total of 2,157. A weekly total change of +630 active cases. 27,664 tests for a 0.91% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.78% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 11.6% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 12.1% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 19 (+2).

• 73 cases in Toronto: 2.3 per 100K population
  
• 51 cases in Ottawa: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Peel: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in York: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Waterloo: 0.5 per 100K (based on regional reporting)
  

188 of 251 cases (75%) from the above top regions.

[jeffster]

The waves of a pandemic are interesting, because AFAIK there is nothing about the virus itself which would lead to this effect, I assume it must be driven almost entirely by human behaviour...I'm tempted to try and model this, I am curious about what it is that humans are doing that causes this, because in many (most?) cases, the second spike is far far larger than the initial.

It could be weather related — more people staying in doors. People letting their guard down. People are getting lazy with social distancing. As I mentioned earlier, I’ve seen some food service not covering their face. There are other reason too, I am sure.

[plam]

I'd wondered about resurgences... everywhere... and did an analysis as of early Sept.

https://patricklam.ca/post/20200904-intl-covid-munging/

Africa continues to do well and I should edit my post and mention that.

European countries are mostly not near the early peaks but some are getting there. This virus will do that.

[jeffster]

I'd wondered about resurgences... everywhere... and did an analysis as of early Sept.

https://patricklam.ca/post/20200904-intl-covid-munging/

Africa continues to do well and I should edit my post and mention that.

European countries are mostly not near the early peaks but some are getting there. This virus will do that.

We have a doctor in the house guys!

OK, so not a medical doctor, but interesting none-the-less. I guess I'll need to proofread my spew from now on.

[plam]

We have a doctor in the house guys!

OK, so not a medical doctor, but interesting none-the-less. I guess I'll need to proofread my spew from now on.

As I've heard it said: "not the kind of doctor that helps people"...

[tomh009]

I'd wondered about resurgences... everywhere... and did an analysis as of early Sept.

https://patricklam.ca/post/20200904-intl-covid-munging/

Africa continues to do well and I should edit my post and mention that.

European countries are mostly not near the early peaks but some are getting there. This virus will do that.

Thanks. One nit I have with the source dataset is that they do use a seven-day moving average rather than the last day -- but their peak value is not based on a seven-day average -- some countries had one-day peaks that were way higher than the surrounding days due to catching up earlier reports. But it looks like it would not be trivial to get that seven-day peak value.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-09-16

Waterloo Region reported two new cases today (0.1% of the total and 2.7% of the active cases) but added five more for yesterday. Given how often the region updates the previous days' data, it's much better to look at weekly numbers rather than daily. New cases are now averaging 14.8% of active cases over the past seven days. 75 active cases (+7).  58 new cases for the week.

No test data until Friday.

Ontario reported 315 new cases today with a seven-day average of 243, still going up fast. 154 recoveries and two deaths translated to an increase of 159 active cases and a current total of 2,316. A weekly total change of +776 active cases. 28,761 tests for a 1.10% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.82% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.7% of the total and 13.6% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 12.6% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+1).

• 77 cases in Toronto: 2.4 per 100K population
  
• 61 cases in Ottawa: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Peel: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in York: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Durham: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Windsor-Essex: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Waterloo: 0.3 per 100K (based on regional reporting)
  

GTA now up to 182 cases a day, and Ottawa up to 61.

[jeffster]

We have a doctor in the house guys!

OK, so not a medical doctor, but interesting none-the-less. I guess I'll need to proofread my spew from now on.

As I've heard it said: "not the kind of doctor that helps people"...

My understanding is that your profession probably helps more people ‘in the background’. We don’t think about it, perhaps don’t even appreciate it, but it makes life a lot better.

[jeffster]

WEDNESDAY 2020-09-16

GTA now up to 182 cases a day, and Ottawa up to 61.

[/quote]

I think GTA is 192 -

Either way, outside the GTA, Windsor and Ottawa, we had 52 cases.

Gotta wonder why Ottawa continues to have so many cases. Not good at all.

[panamaniac]

WEDNESDAY 2020-09-16

GTA now up to 182 cases a day, and Ottawa up to 61.

I think GTA is 192 -

Either way, outside the GTA, Windsor and Ottawa, we had 52 cases.

Gotta wonder why Ottawa continues to have so many cases. Not good at all.
[/quote]

Ottawa is apparently due to people socializing at private homes without appropriate precautions.  Something like two thirds of new cases involve people under the age of 40.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-09-17

Waterloo Region reported eight new cases today (0.5% of the total and 9.8% of the active cases). 47 new cases for the week, averaging 10.5% of active cases. 82 active cases (+7).

No test data until Friday.

Ontario reported 293 new cases today with a seven-day average of 260, still going up fast. 179 recoveries and three deaths translated to an increase of 111 active cases and a current total of 2,427. A weekly total change of +859 active cases. 35,134 tests for a 0.83% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.84% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 12.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 12.8% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 21 (+1).

• 85 cases in Toronto: 2.7 per 100K population
  
• 63 cases in Peel: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Ottawa: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Halton: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Waterloo: 1.3 per 100K (based on regional reporting)
  

GTA cases now spreading to neighbouring Halton?

[Bytor]

Speaking of second wave, it's arrived alright.

I'd prefer number of hospitalisations or deaths as a better public metric. Too many people under 40 think this wave is overblown because it is "only" bad for older people.