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+--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463)
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RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 10:09 AM)ac3r Wrote: Health Canada approves use of AstraZeneca vaccine: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astrazeneca-approved-1.5929050
Worth noting that while the article states it has an efficacy of 62.1%, it does provide 100% protection against severe symptoms/hospitalization/death: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html
Well, no, it doesn't say that it provides 100% protection. It simply says that there were none in their trial, they don't claim that this will be the normal case. The control group had 15 hospitalizations, it's not enough to claim that the vaccine will prevent all those. EDIT: The same is actually true for the BioNTech, Moderna and J&J vaccines: in the phase 3 trials, none had a death in the group that received the vaccine. But it still doesn't guarantee 100% protection against death.
Still, the data is encouraging, and it seems that this time they avoided the chaos of their first trial and ran things properly.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 10:13 AM)danbrotherston Wrote:(02-26-2021, 10:09 AM)ac3r Wrote: Health Canada approves use of AstraZeneca vaccine: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astrazeneca-approved-1.5929050
Worth noting that while the article states it has an efficacy of 62.1%, it does provide 100% protection against severe symptoms/hospitalization/death: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html
Is there any information on what the delivery schedule would be? I assume this means the entire schedule the PCs presented yesterday gets thrown out...at least assuming they aren't exclusively limited by distribution capability.
Is the Ontario schedule actually supply-constrained? They expect to vaccinate about 3M people by the end of June (ages 65 and over). But, even without AstraZeneca, the federal government is expecting 23M doses for Canada, which would equate to about 9.5M for Ontario. Sure, some of those 3M people will get second doses, but it still doesn't look like much more than 5M doses, much less than will be available.
If it's not supply-constrained, having AstraZeneca will not make any substantial difference.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 12:10 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(02-26-2021, 10:13 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: Is there any information on what the delivery schedule would be? I assume this means the entire schedule the PCs presented yesterday gets thrown out...at least assuming they aren't exclusively limited by distribution capability.
Is the Ontario schedule actually supply-constrained? They expect to vaccinate about 3M people by the end of June (ages 65 and over). But, even without AstraZeneca, the federal government is expecting 23M doses for Canada, which would equate to about 9.5M for Ontario. Sure, some of those 3M people will get second doses, but it still doesn't look like much more than 5M doses, much less than will be available.
If it's not supply-constrained, having AstraZeneca will not make any substantial difference.
It's shocking just how incompetent DoFo is proving to be here. I mean, in the last 24 hours, I've heard "oh transparency"...then a schedule which makes little sense and is at minimum communicated so incompetently, and to top it off, there's a tweet from his party about how we are "leading the provinces"...when we are second from last.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
A nice diagram of the variant lineages from the Economist:
![[Image: EvFgH7KVIAYJSe3?format=jpg&name=large]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EvFgH7KVIAYJSe3?format=jpg&name=large)
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
FRIDAY 2021-02-26
Waterloo Region reported 71 (!) new cases for today (19.5% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 65; 345 new cases for the week (+21), averaging 14.5% of active cases. 408 active cases -- back over 400 now -- and +62 in the last seven days.
An average of 1,623 tests per day for a positivity rate of 3.04%, substantially higher than the provincial average.
Ontario reported 1,258 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,114 (+15). 1,007 recoveries and 28 deaths translated to an increase of 223 active cases and a new total of 10,294. -256 active cases for the week and 124 deaths (18 per day). 64,049 tests for a positivity rate of 1.96%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.45% for the past seven days, compared to 2.41% for the preceding seven.
In the past week there have been 92 cases (-7) of B.1.1.7 (UK), five cases (+4) of B.1.351 (SA) and one case (+0) of P.1 (BR) variant. The variant data looks very bursty so I suspect they are not being analyzed on a daily basis.
284 patients in ICU (+1 today, +15 for the week). Total hospital population of 684 (-6 for the week). Hospitalization numbers are no longer dropping, and I expect to see them start creeping up soon.
- 42 cases in Thunder Bay: 28.0 per 100K
- 274 cases in Peel: 19.8 per 100K
- 35 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.9 per 100K
- 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
- 362 cases in Toronto: 12.4 per 100K
- 69 cases in Waterloo: 11.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
- 64 cases in Hamilton: 11.0 per 100K
- 104 cases in York: 9.4 per 100K
- 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
- 42 cases in Durham: 6.5 per 100K
- 32 cases in Halton: 5.8 per 100K
- 11 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.4 per 100K
- 52 cases in Ottawa: 5.2 per 100K
- 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
- 6 cases in Lambton: 4.6 per 100K
- 9 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.5 per 100K
- 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
- 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
- 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
- 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 04:26 PM)tomh009 Wrote: A nice diagram of the variant lineages from the Economist:
Presumably antibody resistance means that the vaccines would be less effective. Has anyone actually gotten any data on that yet?
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 04:56 PM)tomh009 Wrote: FRIDAY 2021-02-26
Waterloo Region reported 71 (!) new cases for today (19.5% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 65; 345 new cases for the week (+21), averaging 14.5% of active cases. 408 active cases -- back over 400 now -- and +62 in the last seven days.
An average of 1,623 tests per day for a positivity rate of 3.04%, substantially higher than the provincial average.
Ontario reported 1,258 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,114 (+15). 1,007 recoveries and 28 deaths translated to an increase of 223 active cases and a new total of 10,294. -256 active cases for the week and 124 deaths (18 per day). 64,049 tests for a positivity rate of 1.96%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.45% for the past seven days, compared to 2.41% for the preceding seven.
In the past week there have been 92 cases (-7) of B.1.1.7 (UK), five cases (+4) of B.1.351 (SA) and one case (+0) of P.1 (BR) variant. The variant data looks very bursty so I suspect they are not being analyzed on a daily basis.
284 patients in ICU (+1 today, +15 for the week). Total hospital population of 684 (-6 for the week). Hospitalization numbers are no longer dropping, and I expect to see them start creeping up soon.
- 42 cases in Thunder Bay: 28.0 per 100K
- 274 cases in Peel: 19.8 per 100K
- 35 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.9 per 100K
- 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
- 362 cases in Toronto: 12.4 per 100K
- 69 cases in Waterloo: 11.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
- 64 cases in Hamilton: 11.0 per 100K
- 104 cases in York: 9.4 per 100K
- 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
- 42 cases in Durham: 6.5 per 100K
- 32 cases in Halton: 5.8 per 100K
- 11 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.4 per 100K
- 52 cases in Ottawa: 5.2 per 100K
- 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
- 6 cases in Lambton: 4.6 per 100K
- 9 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.5 per 100K
- 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
- 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
- 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
- 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population
Our pandemic policy might be pessimal. Maximizing harm by maintaining high numbers of cases requiring long lockdowns and significant economic harm in addition to excess deaths from the pandemic itself.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 02-26-2021
Vaccination site locations have been released. They are in the most transit unfriendly locations you could possibly use in the city, which is just great for the 80+ crowd. The locations are RONA in Cambridge and The Boardwalk in Waterloo: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/region-announces-locations-of-covid-vaccination-clinics-3460682
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:06 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Presumably antibody resistance means that the vaccines would be less effective. Has anyone actually gotten any data on that yet?
Vaccines could be less effective, yes -- and also antibodies from a prior infection would be less effective.
The results are remarkably similar, though. This is extracted from the J&J submission to the FDA, and shows that the results are very similar (within the 95% confidence interval) in the US, Brazil and South Africa. I suggest focusing on the 28-day data rather than the early 14-day data.
https://twitter.com/jpogue1/status/1364909840242515973?s=20
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:20 PM)ac3r Wrote: Vaccination site locations have been released. They are in the most transit unfriendly locations you could possibly use in the city, which is just great for the 80+ crowd. The locations are RONA in Cambridge and The Boardwalk in Waterloo: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/region-announces-locations-of-covid-vaccination-clinics-3460682
Boardwalk has half a dozen bus connections, does it not? I know I have a couple options from DTK.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:21 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(02-26-2021, 05:06 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Presumably antibody resistance means that the vaccines would be less effective. Has anyone actually gotten any data on that yet?
Vaccines could be less effective, yes -- and also antibodies from a prior infection would be less effective.
The results are remarkably similar, though. This is extracted from the J&J submission to the FDA, and shows that the results are very similar (within the 95% confidence interval) in the US, Brazil and South Africa. I suggest focusing on the 28-day data rather than the early 14-day data.
https://twitter.com/jpogue1/status/1364909840242515973?s=20
Thanks for the data, yes, I "could" is more correct. I knew people would be studying it, the results do look promising.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:23 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(02-26-2021, 05:20 PM)ac3r Wrote: Vaccination site locations have been released. They are in the most transit unfriendly locations you could possibly use in the city, which is just great for the 80+ crowd. The locations are RONA in Cambridge and The Boardwalk in Waterloo: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/region-announces-locations-of-covid-vaccination-clinics-3460682
Boardwalk has half a dozen bus connections, does it not? I know I have a couple options from DTK.
The boardwalk has more than a few bus connections, including two iXpress routes.
The boardwalk is also a nightmare level of suburban sprawl. The medical building is a km or so walk through a dangerous parking lot, in winter...not something I'd expect the average 80 year old to enjoy. Not something that is ever safe for anyone. Of course, the area is such nonsense that one of the bus routes does service the medical building directly, so you can wait at the bus terminal for 20-40 minutes to make a connection if you're uncomfortable with the walk.
Yeah, I think it's a trash location, but it was a trash location for all the other things in that building...disappointing, but not surprising in our car dependent city. They do say they will have other centres so hopefully future ones will be better located. To be honest, I have no idea how the average 80 year old gets around...but given our city, I suspect the majority do drive or have someone to drive them.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:41 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Yeah, I think it's a trash location, but it was a trash location for all the other things in that building...disappointing, but not surprising in our car dependent city. They do say they will have other centres so hopefully future ones will be better located. To be honest, I have no idea how the average 80 year old gets around...but given our city, I suspect the majority do drive or have someone to drive them.
I suspect that, too: there are not many 80yo+ people on buses based on my anecdotal observations.
Hopefully the pharmacies are engaged in this as they will generally be more convenient.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:45 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(02-26-2021, 05:41 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Yeah, I think it's a trash location, but it was a trash location for all the other things in that building...disappointing, but not surprising in our car dependent city. They do say they will have other centres so hopefully future ones will be better located. To be honest, I have no idea how the average 80 year old gets around...but given our city, I suspect the majority do drive or have someone to drive them.
I suspect that, too: there are not many 80yo+ people on buses based on my anecdotal observations.
Hopefully the pharmacies are engaged in this as they will generally be more convenient.
Pharmacies are a no brainer, they already distribute the flu vaccine. Basically anyone who already gives vaccines should automatically be part of this process (and the medical building is already in that category).
The only surprises should be "we're also doing mass vaccinations at the following community sites".
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 02-26-2021
(02-26-2021, 05:23 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(02-26-2021, 05:20 PM)ac3r Wrote: Vaccination site locations have been released. They are in the most transit unfriendly locations you could possibly use in the city, which is just great for the 80+ crowd. The locations are RONA in Cambridge and The Boardwalk in Waterloo: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/region-announces-locations-of-covid-vaccination-clinics-3460682
Boardwalk has half a dozen bus connections, does it not? I know I have a couple options from DTK.
Yeah The Boardwalk has lots of bus connections, but it's actually a really long walk to go from the bus stops to the medical centre. Hopefully it doesn't inconvenience too many elderly people. Or, just people in general...it's over an hour long bus ride to get there from where I live.
Someone on Reddit asked why they didn't just use Catalyst 137 again. Going there would beat going way out to the suburbs.