(07-25-2022, 06:25 PM)dtkvictim Wrote: I don't know where you are getting your confidence that KWs growth boundary is untouchable. It's great that we have it, and it hasn't been touched yet, but you can look nearly anywhere in North America with an urban growth boundary to find examples of this promise being broken. Ottawa voted to expand their boundary just 2 years ago, and there is a good chance developer money had influence (not "under the table", but involved nonetheless): https://development.money/
Though it's probably worth considering that urban vs suburban developers probably have opposing views on urban growth boundaries.
Oh I definitely don't think it's untouchable. Quite the opposite is likely to be the case as we grow larger and larger. But there are a few things working in our favour to ensure it hopefully does not, or at least not in a way where they return to building massive subdivisions in every last bit of usable land.
The cities aren't exactly large in terms of their square kilometer area. Much of it has already been developed so there aren't many areas of land left to utilize. Regardless of what happens, the fact of the matter is we're going to be building up more than we are building out. With the Region of Waterloo projected to be nearing 1 million people by 2051, that is going to require a lot of new homes (of whatever form) to be constructed. And with the region and cities (particularly Kitchener, as they've been the real leaders of this region) have developed plans to densify cities, regardless of what the couple pessimists of this forum who love to constantly reply "no, you're wrong, here's why" to the rest of us this think. The plans we have now are not perfect, but it's an attempt for now and will evolve.
I think as we grow over the next couple decades, zoning changes will become more flexible. We will see more of that missing middle going up because we're going to understand it's required. Simple math can demonstrate that we can't have a couple hundred thousand more people living here primarily living in single family detached homes, but nor can they all live in 1 or 2 bedroom condos. Even if fewer people are having families these days, there will still be a need for more than a 1 or 2 bedroom home. Not everyone is going to want to live in a skyscraper. Those who do decide to start a family, if they are unable to afford or just do not want a detached home, then they may consider a rowhouse, duplex, a low or midrise apartment/condo and similar. And just keeping in line with the various development plans, that missing middle is not going to be such a fantasy anymore, though we'll have to change zoning rules to get there. I also know that by 2051 we'll no doubt have an additional LRT line (and will keep on adding more), which will continue to spur transit oriented development along those lines. That will also help to densify and develop areas in the city, even up to the borders, with things other than towering skyscrapers of condos or low rise homes. Generally speaking...it's just inevitable we'll see more middle density being built. Look at any large city you wish and you'll see they have everything: single family homes, a wide variety of middle housing and skyscrapers in high density areas.
But secondly, this sort of approach can benefit the townships too. They're still in a place where they can create specific plans for their communities. And that means, while for sure they'll see generic single family home neighbourhoods built by extremely wealthy developers, they can also lay down rules and allow their communities to follow a good, progressive, sustainable path of evolution and development. That is, while they have the time, they can start to think of things like MUTs, where to allow retail and services in convenient locations, to zone areas that can permit the development of rowhouses, low/mid rise apartments, to maintain their downtown by limiting stuff like strip malls and huge big box stores and so on. There's a good video which I'll link below which explores why not all small towns out there suck and it's worth the watch, though isn't exactly detailed about things: