05-24-2023, 05:19 PM
So they assumed a construction inflation rate of 3.6% per year. That is not out of the realm of possibility, but is probably on the higher end of what is likely to happen. The last 2 years were crazy for predicting costs. I don't know what the historic rate of inflation for the construction industry is, but I imagine it is closer to 2 - 2.5%. Which would still equate to roughly 4B with a 20% contingency. The region will probably need to foot roughly 40-50% of the cost to construct to get phase 2 approved by the province and Federal Government. Similar to the city of Ottawa. Assuming the Region is close to 700K by 2030 that would be roughly $2,800 per resident to build. That assumes no development fees help. So if the Region put a decade long $300 tax levy to pay for the Rapid Transit we could have enough in the coffers to pay our share. My math was done very quickly so do not hold me to it. haha