03-21-2023, 09:26 PM
(03-19-2023, 08:27 PM)ijmorlan Wrote:(03-19-2023, 07:14 PM)Bytor Wrote: If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?
Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.
Because it’s well known that many more people will ride an LRT than will ride a bus. That being said, I don’t know that it would double quickly, but it’s believable that it could.
Eventually double it? Yes, in the 2028 time frame, sure. But this whole conversation has been about people griping that 2028 was way too long to wait for stage two and then talking like turning 301 into an LRT have bumped up the ridership immediately if not sooner in 2019.
In November 2015 the southern half of iXpress 200 was 72,844 boardings or about 2,780 per average weekday. In November 2016 was 3,030 per weekday. It was, roughly, 30% of the ridership of the total route during that time.
I don't have numbers for the southern half of iXpress 200 past April 2017, but if I had to guess, based on other numbers on growth from various Regional Council reports, I would guess ~3,400 in November 2017, and ~3,700 in November 2018.
Up until this point we're talking about 10% yearly growth for what would become the 302.
In November 2019, 302 was 114,313 boardings or almost 4,400 per weekday.
That was probably 18% growth from November 2018.
I could see up to 25% growth, or ~4,600/weekday, for of a Stage 2 built right away. Maybe 30% or ~4,800/weekday, but that's pushing as it would outstrip the growth percentage that did happen in K-W and would be incredibly out o character for Cambridge transit patterns.
TL;DR — thinking that the southern half as an LRT would have created such a huge bump in Cambridge transit ridership to have made it worthwhile (based on operational cost per ride compared to a bus route) is wishful thinking.