03-19-2023, 08:35 PM
(03-19-2023, 07:14 PM)Bytor Wrote:(03-12-2023, 10:04 PM)KevinL Wrote: Yeah, it's like the old phrase 'don't measure the need for a bridge by counting the number of people swimming across the river'. There could be a LOT of latent demand unlocked.
And a 10 minute headway bus route would show you what that demand is quite handily since it's in or close to the zone of "just go to a bus stop and wait as it will be there soon" since the median wait time will be 5 minutes.
And that's exactly what we have in route 302, a 10 minute bus route.
If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?
Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.
Does anyone have the 2019 statistics to show what impact phase 1 had on ridership?
Just anecdotally, I've taken maybe... 5 buses since the LRT launched. And I've taken the LRT for hundreds of trips. When I go somewhere that isn't on the LRT route, I walk or bike if practical, or otherwise I take an Uber/taxi. Buses just aren't in the same class of transportation for me, and it's not just about headways.
I'm sure you're probably right that ridership wouldn't double overnight, but I think it's a bigger difference than you are giving credit for. I have to imagine most of the people taking the 302 are highly captive, and there is a lot of voluntary ridership to be gained.