06-05-2022, 01:02 PM
(06-05-2022, 11:21 AM)ijmorlan Wrote: Has anybody seen an analysis of what happened to the vote? I mean, did the PCs attract any new votes, or just lose fewer votes than the other parties, compared to the last election?
The PC's % point went up slightly (like 0.3pp) and Liberals went up by about 4.28pp. NDP dropped a staggering 9.85pp. Ontario Party and New Blue Party took about 4.5pp combined, while the Greens went up 1.4pp.
The Liberals actually came in 2nd for percentage points, but I think they were hotly popular in Ottawa and some the richest sections of Toronto (Yorkville, The Beaches) which may skew numbers a bit. It could be too that Del Duca spent little time outside Toronto, trying to make sure he wins his seat, but that didn't happen.
What is fascinating about the PC's is that they did very, very well in the so-called "minority population" areas of Ontario - sweeping most of the GTA (like Brampton, Mississauga, Vaughn, Markham and Richmond Hill). These cities are all heavily populated with people from the Asian continents, be it Indian or Chinese and the surrounding areas. They obviously did well in farming country and rural areas around southern Ontario because NDP and Liberals don't care about those folks.
Misplays: Del Duca spending too much time in Toronto and not around the province. Certain weird promises that would likely only help 'white' collar workers (4-day work week) I think frustrated many 'blue collar' workers that would never benefit from such a plan. $1/transit isn't something the vast majority of citizens care about, especially when transit in most cities is horrible - so it really was a Toronto centric promise.
NDP: Horwath I think wasn't a great leader here. She spent too much time attacking the old Liberals. I think she worried people about her '4-year tax freeze' -- there was no clarity on that. Normally the tax rate is constant in Ontario, so it may have made people believe she was referring to a tax freeze on the personal exemption, which is the only thing that can be frozen - so more taxes for most earners. I think promising to double ODSP was good, but not the same as promising to double OW which I think lost her some votes as well.
Voter turnout was super low - as if everyone was uninspired this turn round, and a-okay with the status quo. That said, being that ONLY the NDP lost percentage points this time around. In normal elections cycles, the incumbents *normally* lose PP, not gain. The "Official" opposition normally gain PP, not lose.
Votes 2018 vs 2022
PC: 2,326,632 vs 1,912,057
NDP: 1,929,649 vs 1,111,923
Liberal: 1,124,218 vs 1,116,961
Green: 264,487 vs 279,152
My main take away though is that Horwath did a horrible job with her messaging. And she was unable to connect with most minority groups, something Ford was able to do. Obviously small business owners and their friends and families voted for Ford.
But hey, I am no expert. I didn't vote either. Though I am in Kitchener-Centre and I knew my MPP was going to be re-elected no matter what (as she's done the job she's supposed to do). I know two to the Liberal candidates personally, not bad people at all, but they were not answering questions that concerned people.
I do hope Ford keeps his promise to help those on ODSP. I hope he keeps his promises for tax relief for those earning less than $50k. I hope he keeps his promise regarding public transit and GO Train services. And I hope he listens to the public and the opposition on other ways to improve the lives of us here in Ontario.