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General Politics Discussion
(06-04-2022, 02:54 PM)cherrypark Wrote:
(06-04-2022, 02:19 PM)sevenman Wrote: Hwy 413 doesn't go anywhere near the Holland Marsh

I think mixing up the 413 and the Bradford Bypass. Both planned to proceed by Ford.

It's interesting that the voters of the York-Simcoe riding, where the Bradford Bypass is located, voted overwhelmingly in favour of Ford's PCs
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(06-05-2022, 03:55 AM)sevenman Wrote:
(06-04-2022, 02:54 PM)cherrypark Wrote: I think mixing up the 413 and the Bradford Bypass. Both planned to proceed by Ford.

It's interesting that the voters of the York-Simcoe riding, where the Bradford Bypass is located, voted overwhelmingly in favour of Ford's PCs

I would argue the people who didn't vote spoke louder suggesting the alternatives weren't really inspiring.

It's unfortunate, but the NDP and Liberals need to do better in both leadership and policy if they want to take on the Dumpster Fire that is the current PC party.
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Has anybody seen an analysis of what happened to the vote? I mean, did the PCs attract any new votes, or just lose fewer votes than the other parties, compared to the last election?
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(06-04-2022, 02:19 PM)sevenman Wrote:
(06-03-2022, 03:12 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: You're optimistic. The highway is there to promote development in the greenbelt. It is the policy that his donors want.

My bet is, it'll get built before the next election, or at least be so far along as to be impossible to cancel. And I don't see us having AW2D GO or highway 7 by then.

Ford is an unmitigated disaster. IMO 413 is the most unrecoverable harm he's going to cause. Even our healthcare system can be rebuilt, the Holland Marsh cannot be unpaved.

Hwy 413 doesn't go anywhere near the Holland Marsh

This is missing the point entirely. Whether the road goes through the Holland Marsh itself or not is irrelevant. If we were only paving the 413, it would be bad, but not a disaster. The problem is that it will induce sprawl all throughout the area. The paving will be parking lots and driveways.

And yes, maybe not the Holland Marsh itself, but the greenbelt as a whole so I'm unsure of what point you were specifically trying to make?
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(06-05-2022, 11:21 AM)ijmorlan Wrote: Has anybody seen an analysis of what happened to the vote? I mean, did the PCs attract any new votes, or just lose fewer votes than the other parties, compared to the last election?

The PC's % point went up slightly (like 0.3pp) and Liberals went up by about 4.28pp. NDP dropped a staggering 9.85pp. Ontario Party and New Blue Party took about 4.5pp combined, while the Greens went up 1.4pp.

The Liberals actually came in 2nd for percentage points, but I think they were hotly popular in Ottawa and some the richest sections of Toronto (Yorkville, The Beaches) which may skew numbers a bit. It could be too that Del Duca spent little time outside Toronto, trying to make sure he wins his seat, but that didn't happen.

What is fascinating about the PC's is that they did very, very well in the so-called "minority population" areas of Ontario - sweeping most of the GTA (like Brampton, Mississauga, Vaughn, Markham and Richmond Hill). These cities are all heavily populated with people from the Asian continents, be it Indian or Chinese and the surrounding areas. They obviously did well in farming country and rural areas around southern Ontario because NDP and Liberals don't care about those folks.

Misplays: Del Duca spending too much time in Toronto and not around the province. Certain weird promises that would likely only help 'white' collar workers (4-day work week) I think frustrated many 'blue collar' workers that would never benefit from such a plan. $1/transit isn't something the vast majority of citizens care about, especially when transit in most cities is horrible - so it really was a Toronto centric promise.

NDP: Horwath I think wasn't a great leader here. She spent too much time attacking the old Liberals. I think she worried people about her '4-year tax freeze' -- there was no clarity on that. Normally the tax rate is constant in Ontario, so it may have made people believe she was referring to a tax freeze on the personal exemption, which is the only thing that can be frozen - so more taxes for most earners. I think promising to double ODSP was good, but not the same as promising to double OW which I think lost her some votes as well.

Voter turnout was super low - as if everyone was uninspired this turn round, and a-okay with the status quo. That said, being that ONLY the NDP lost percentage points this time around. In normal elections cycles, the incumbents *normally* lose PP, not gain. The "Official" opposition normally gain PP, not lose.

Votes 2018 vs 2022

PC: 2,326,632 vs 1,912,057
NDP: 1,929,649 vs 1,111,923
Liberal: 1,124,218 vs 1,116,961
Green: 264,487 vs 279,152

My main take away though is that Horwath did a horrible job with her messaging. And she was unable to connect with most minority groups, something Ford was able to do. Obviously small business owners and their friends and families voted for Ford.

But hey, I am no expert. I didn't vote either. Though I am in Kitchener-Centre and I knew my MPP was going to be re-elected no matter what (as she's done the job she's supposed to do). I know two to the Liberal candidates personally, not bad people at all, but they were not answering questions that concerned people.

I do hope Ford keeps his promise to help those on ODSP. I hope he keeps his promises for tax relief for those earning less than $50k. I hope he keeps his promise regarding public transit and GO Train services. And I hope he listens to the public and the opposition on other ways to improve the lives of us here in Ontario.
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(06-05-2022, 01:02 PM)jeffster Wrote: I do hope Ford keeps his promise to help those on ODSP. I hope he keeps his promises for tax relief for those earning less than $50k. I hope he keeps his promise regarding public transit and GO Train services. And I hope he listens to the public and the opposition on other ways to improve the lives of us here in Ontario.

I will note that, in addition to the failings of the opposition campaigns (and NDP in particular), the PC policies are significantly more centrist than before, reducing the maneuvering room for the Liberals and NDP. This is not the Mike Harris government, to be sure -- nor is it the Trump-lite that many of us feared after Ford was first elected.
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(06-05-2022, 03:00 PM)tomh009 Wrote:
(06-05-2022, 01:02 PM)jeffster Wrote: I do hope Ford keeps his promise to help those on ODSP. I hope he keeps his promises for tax relief for those earning less than $50k. I hope he keeps his promise regarding public transit and GO Train services. And I hope he listens to the public and the opposition on other ways to improve the lives of us here in Ontario.

I will note that, in addition to the failings of the opposition campaigns (and NDP in particular), the PC policies are significantly more centrist than before, reducing the maneuvering room for the Liberals and NDP. This is not the Mike Harris government, to be sure -- nor is it the Trump-lite that many of us feared after Ford was first elected.

I do agree with this...although centrist policies right now are extremely harmful, there are multiple crises going on, and he doesn't really have a plan to fix any of them, other than just ignoring them.

But also, we're going to have to see what he does. He has proposed a ton of spending and no way to pay for it...
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(06-05-2022, 03:34 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(06-05-2022, 03:00 PM)tomh009 Wrote: I will note that, in addition to the failings of the opposition campaigns (and NDP in particular), the PC policies are significantly more centrist than before, reducing the maneuvering room for the Liberals and NDP. This is not the Mike Harris government, to be sure -- nor is it the Trump-lite that many of us feared after Ford was first elected.

I do agree with this...although centrist policies right now are extremely harmful, there are multiple crises going on, and he doesn't really have a plan to fix any of them, other than just ignoring them.

But also, we're going to have to see what he does. He has proposed a ton of spending and no way to pay for it...

Yep. That is one issue. Mind you, with gas at $2/litre, they're bringing in a lot more money with this type of tax. With average incomes up, they should be bring in a lot more money that way too.

Speaking of gas, that was a weird promise that Horwath spoke about - trying to regulate gas prices somehow. There was an article in the paper talking about this, and how it has worked (and not in a good way) out east.

I think an issue people have is politicians over-promising then underdelivering.
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(06-05-2022, 09:45 AM)timio Wrote: It's unfortunate, but the NDP and Liberals need to do better in both leadership and policy if they want to take on the Dumpster Fire that is the current PC party.

They also need to learn how to reconnect with everyday people. As in, all people.

The left will go all in for the alphabet people, but then totally ignore the common working class Canadians who overwhelmingly seem to vote for the PCPO even if it isn't in their best interest at times. The average working class family doesn't give a shit about things like trans people using certain bathrooms, gun bans, sex-ed in school, idenity polics, vaccines, face masks or whatever. They want to know their livelihoods are going to be safe and sound, whether that's policy that's pro-manufacturing, pro-infrastructure, unions, wages, investing, taxes, provincial debt and so on.

I know the NDP or OLP do touch these sort of topics, but their messaging is shit. Nobody wants to vote for some clown wearing a vest (lol at the vest) or someone who just whines about how bad the other party is. Connect with the very people who vote for the party you're trying to beat. Go into their territory, their world, their lives. Listen, watch, learn, understand. Doug Ford may not do that himself but for some reason he (and the PCPO in general) are good at pulling in votes from certain segments of our society that the left just seems to ignore or vilify. "We need to make Covid-19 vaccines mandatory for children! And also ban legal guns even though it's illegal guns that are used in virtually all crime!" Like, no, shut the hell up. Tell parents how they'll have better child care, health care, have their wages raised, find it easier to buy a house or rent, propose improvements to help their children get into trades or higher education and just benefit from proposed changes in society overall. And do it in a way that they can build trust and faith in your party.

The ONDP and OLP failed because they weren't saying the right things to connect to people. They basically got publicly humiliated by people every step of the way. Doug Ford and his entire party sat back, watched these two morons and their entire parties eat each other alive and sailed into another 4 years of a majority government while laughing at Del Duca and Horwath being such failures that they had to step down.

Politics in Canada is pathetic.
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Were trans bathrooms, sex-ed in school, identity politics, vaccines and face masks significant issues in this election? Because if they were, I managed to miss them.

Firearms policies are federal, though, so really not much to do with this election. (And, for what it's worth, legal guns do turn into illegal guns very easily, all it takes is one break-in.)
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(06-05-2022, 09:45 AM)timio Wrote:
(06-05-2022, 03:55 AM)sevenman Wrote: It's interesting that the voters of the York-Simcoe riding, where the Bradford Bypass is located, voted overwhelmingly in favour of Ford's PCs

I would argue the people who didn't vote spoke louder suggesting the alternatives weren't really inspiring.

It's unfortunate, but the NDP and Liberals need to do better in both leadership and policy if they want to take on the Dumpster Fire that is the current PC party.

  You can argue that if you want but if the voters were truly against it ( the Bradford Bypass ) they would have at least voted for any party that was also against it.  Which they didn't.  The PC candidate there Carolyn Mulroney, ironically the Transportation Minister, ran on completing the Bradford Bypass and the majority of voters there voted for her.  She received almost 60% of the votes while the other seven parties received 40% combined.  I personally couldn't care less whether they build that highway or not as I'll likely never use it but that is a pretty strong mandate.
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(06-05-2022, 05:49 PM)jeffster Wrote: Yep. That is one issue. Mind you, with gas at $2/litre, they're bringing in a lot more money with this type of tax. With average incomes up, they should be bring in a lot more money that way too.

Unfortunately, I don’t believe that is correct. The gas taxes are ¢/L. Of course the HST on gas is bringing in more.

Quote:Speaking of gas, that was a weird promise that Horwath spoke about - trying to regulate gas prices somehow. There was an article in the paper talking about this, and how it has worked (and not in a good way) out east.

Yeah, generally I tend to support the NDP, but man do they come up with some really dumb ideas. Regulating gas prices. As if.

OK, maybe in specific circumstances, like saying that gas in remote areas can’t be more than a certain number of ¢/L more than in major centres, with the amount being based on the reasonable cost of transportation. But in a large and liquid market like Toronto, there is no way that anything good can come of trying to suppress gas prices. And that’s even without considering that we don’t want people burning so much fossil fuel.
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(06-05-2022, 12:44 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(06-04-2022, 02:19 PM)sevenman Wrote: Hwy 413 doesn't go anywhere near the Holland Marsh

This is missing the point entirely. Whether the road goes through the Holland Marsh itself or not is irrelevant. If we were only paving the 413, it would be bad, but not a disaster. The problem is that it will induce sprawl all throughout the area. The paving will be parking lots and driveways.

And yes, maybe not the Holland Marsh itself, but the greenbelt as a whole so I'm unsure of what point you were specifically trying to make?

Your posts leading up to mine referenced Hwy 413 and then you made reference to the Holland Marsh.  That's why I stated that Hwy 413 does not go any where near Holland Marsh.  If the Holland Marsh is irrelevant as you say, why did you bring it up?

BTW if the 413 does induce development throughout the area, it will never effect the Holland Marsh.
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(06-05-2022, 01:02 PM)jeffster Wrote: Votes 2018 vs 2022

PC: 2,326,632 vs 1,912,057
NDP: 1,929,649 vs 1,111,923
Liberal: 1,124,218 vs 1,116,961
Green: 264,487 vs 279,152

Thanks for this entire post, but especially for these numbers. So it looks like the PCs went down some, the NDP went down a lot, the Liberals are basically unchanged, and the Greens are up by an amount which is noticeable given their small baseline but overall not even worth mentioning.

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ontar...l_election, the seat change between elections is:

PC 76 -> 83 (+7)
NDP 40 -> 31 (-9)
Liberal 7 -> 8 (+1)
Green 1 -> 1 (0)

And I think an independent won this time. Overall, the NDP lost 9 seats to others compared to the last election. So the seat swings match the vote swing, which really makes it look like the NDP messed up big time and managed to keep their voters from last time at home. Meanwhile the Liberals didn’t change much of anything.
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(06-05-2022, 07:56 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Were trans bathrooms, sex-ed in school, identity politics, vaccines and face masks significant issues in this election? Because if they were, I managed to miss them.

Firearms policies are federal, though, so really not much to do with this election. (And, for what it's worth, legal guns do turn into illegal guns very easily, all it takes is one break-in.)

There was a strong narrative from the NDP and Liberals regarding certain social issues and that Ford was 'not there' for them. The LGBTQ+ itself was very vocal that people that vote PC are evil, wicked people (just browsing social media to see this) and the Ford hates every LGBTQ+ person out there. Just seeing the comments on twitter is sickening, but it is what it is.

On that topic, it should be noted that, as I mentioned before, the "905" play king-makers. The 905 has a lot of "visible" minorities. They are religious and read the Quran. The whole messaging from certain groups don't go over well with them. Those folks are more social conservatives than anything else. And, many are business owners. And many earn less than $50,000/year. So it was the perfect brewing pot for them not to vote NDP (hence their massive decrease in votes earned). Rural Ontario, and to an extent, all cities outside Toronto and Ottawa, are ignored by Liberals, which is another perfect brewing pot for those to vote PC. This is why Liberals had only 1 victory outside Ottawa and Toronto (Kingston, where that nut job that was excommunicated from the PC's, Randy Hillier, comes from).

As crazy as Ford and his party was for the first year in, he calmed down and learned the role after 2020. They had no issues with kicking people out of caucus and having members resign, and if not, they were excommunicated.
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