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General University Area Updates and Rumours
(06-14-2017, 03:20 PM)panamaniac Wrote: I think we can assume that he meant to refer to the owner(s).

Funny enough, I think this architecture studio is owned by the developers!
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So which student tower(s) won't be ready as promised for their September 1 move in date this year?

:-)
Everyone move to the back of the bus and we all get home faster.
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City of Waterloo Finance agenda (page 66) has a report on student housing.

Predicts a potential surplus of 1,060 beds with an additional potential of 7,114 beds still coming down stream.


Also mentions the assembly of parcels for two new parks (Hickory @ Sunview, and Hickory @ Hemlock) in Northdale (page 53) that I think were previously announced.
Everyone move to the back of the bus and we all get home faster.
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That's a decent analysis.  A 1,060-bed surplus is not unreasonable, it would be something like a 5% vacancy rate.  8,000+ beds would be quite different though.

But I do wonder about the counting:

Quote:Low-density rental licensing number generated by averaging two figures:
• 1. Counted 90% of licensed beds in catchment area and 25% beds outside catchment area
•2. CBRE Limited analysis figure

Is the "licensed beds" counting all rental aparments?  Barrel Yards, for example, is within the catchment area, and is (I think) primarily catering to the non-student population.
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If apartment growth surpasses university growth, perhaps there is hope for the 3000+ name waiting list for affordable housing in the Region.
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(10-13-2017, 08:13 AM)tomh009 Wrote: That's a decent analysis.  A 1,060-bed surplus is not unreasonable, it would be something like a 5% vacancy rate.  8,000+ beds would be quite different though.

But I do wonder about the counting:

Quote:Low-density rental licensing number generated by averaging two figures:
• 1. Counted 90% of licensed beds in catchment area and 25% beds outside catchment area
•2. CBRE Limited analysis figure

Is the "licensed beds" counting all rental aparments?  Barrel Yards, for example, is within the catchment area, and is (I think) primarily catering to the non-student population.

I'm pretty sure they're counting Barrel Yards as 90% student occupancy, which is pretty absurd. They also assume 25% of all other multi-residential beds in the city, which seems high. I doubt there's that many students living far enough from campus they're outside the catchment area.

I continue to believe we're not at oversupply. The students towers seem to still be displacing a lot of unlicensed low rise rentals, which are returning to non-student uses. As a result student housing growth should be viewed in the context of Waterloo's overall population growth, rather than just student enrollment growth, at least until we've achieved 80%+ displacement of unlicensed low rise rentals. A lot of the new buildings are also friendly to younger staff/researchers at the university that are without families, and would like a 1 bedroom apartment close to work.
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(10-16-2017, 03:07 PM)taylortbb Wrote: A lot of the new buildings are also friendly to younger staff/researchers at the university that are without families, and would like a 1 bedroom apartment close to work.

Yeah, basically every grad student I knew considered a 1-bed apartment to be the ideal living situation. And they used to be in fairly short supply.
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I can see some of the current student-oriented buildings becoming popular with larger families that don't want or can't afford a house. How often do you find an apartment where a family of four could give each kid their own room?
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Seen last night that Factory Square (451 Phillip St) sign says that 75000 Sq ft has been leased approximately 35% of the total space.
Also the Matter of Taste within the project is now open for business.
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Apparently Spear Capital is in the process of selling 3 former BlackBerry buildings on Phillip St.
Raytheon also looks like it is in negotiations to sell their property and significantly downsize their local foot print.

News from this Whitney Real Estate report 2017 Q4 :

https://www.google.ca/url?q=http://www.w...eItRflfwwj
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That Raytheon property is quite large (and has a surprising amount of open space). Could be interesting.
My Twitter: @KevinLMaps
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24 acres is quite substantial. I can't see that being developed into a new office space complex, but I hope it won't be all student housing, either.
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(10-12-2017, 10:18 PM)Pheidippides Wrote: City of Waterloo Finance agenda (page 66) has a report on student housing.

Predicts a potential surplus of 1,060 beds with an additional potential of 7,114 beds still coming down stream.

And new data is out: http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/waterloo-reg...-1.3697898

Looks like Waterloo Region has declining rental vacancy (now below 2%) combined with increasing rents, despite a substantial increase in supply of over 2000 units (a 6.9% increase). Not sure on the timeframe, but all the numbers are over the same one so they should be comparable. I really don't think this "student housing surplus" exists based on the data.
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Yeah, I suggest people take a look at the CMHC report:

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/pr...1905121773
(If that doesn't work, go here, and click on Kitchener)

The doom and gloom people could point to the vacancy in Waterloo going up to 2.3%, but the vacancy across the region going down clearly indicates that we can continue to absorb more housing. Rents are still highest in Waterloo, so we might see some decent downward pressure on rental rates. And indeed, the data bears this out, with Waterloo having the lowest increase in average rents in the last year. (2.8% increase vs CMA average of 3.3%)
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What about (rental) condos that have been purchase, but not actually put onto the rental market? Is the vacancy rate subject to the same argument about employment rates, eg "the jobless rate went up because more people looked for jobs" and conversely, "the jobless rate went down because people stopped looking for jobs but nonetheless remained unemployed"?
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