Station Park | 18, 28, 36, 40, 50 fl | U/C

[tomh009]

I feel like construction on this and all other projects will slow down with the virus pandemic. We've not seen the peak of that thing, so as the weeks/months go on, it's going to impact the construction industry regardless of whether or not it's deemed essential. Workers are going to become sick and money will start to dry up. In fact, I'd say that this world event could very well signal the end of this real estate/construction boom for the foreseeable future because the economic impacts have been expected to parallel what happened to the world following the 1918 influenza. I suspect few new projects will really be announced, and what exists will lose a chunk of its value. I feel bad for anyone who spent a couple hundred thousand on a condo or who opened a new business downtown.

The construction will slow indeed, due to either unavailability of workers, or to shortages of materials (as the supply chain experiences worker shortages or shutdowns).

But the impact is unlikely to be anywhere near the 1918 influenza numbers. Back then, something like 40M people died worldwide, and up to half of those may have been in the 18-40 age bracket, or prime working age. While the COVID-19 impact is still very much unknown, the deaths may be an order of magnitude lower (better economic conditions, better hygiene, better medical care) and most of the dead are people who are out of the workforce, whether retired or disabled due to other medical conditions.

We'll have to wait and see what happens with the new projects. There are still quite a few in the pipeline, but it's impossible to judge right now whether they will still go ahead once the conditions ease, or whether the developers will start pulling plugs.