Population and Housing

[tomh009]

Maybe I am wrong and the region can accommodate 300,000 people in shoebox towers in the downtowns or at various midrise infill projects that take years to build due to nimby protests. In the mean time I am glad I got into the housing market a couple years ago, because prices will probably continue to skyrocket in this region due to the artificial constraint.

So, the choice is single-family housing sprawl into the farmlands, with more car-centric transportation, or everyone living in a shoebox?

We are talking about a 30-year projection. There is no need to have housing for 300,000 more people this year or even in 10 years. 300,000 people is probably around 110,000 housing units, maybe only 100,000, given the current average household size of 2.9, and some people living in shared accommodations. That's around 3,600 housing units per year.

Let's assume 1,200 single-family/semi-detached houses, 1,200 in townhome/low-rise developments and 1,200 in mid-rise/high-rise developments, each per year. That's maybe 30-40 townhome/low-rise projects (depending on the size mix) and 5-10 mid-rise/high-rise projects, again depending on the mix. Averages for 30 years, lower in the near future and higher in the 2040s. Those numbers are really not stunningly high.