11-27-2020, 02:28 PM
(11-24-2020, 10:30 PM)catarctica Wrote: I heard it wouldn’t be coming till 2025 or 2028? I low key already want a new line going thru king/Columbia and st jacobs farmers market (this one is more like a wishful hope).
When Stage one was finished, and we went through 2 years of "any day now" thanks to Bombardier, the quasi-official word from councillors and senior staff when asked was that the earliest Stage 2 would be started was 2025 based on ability to get funding from senior levels of government in a timely manner, and how fast ridership along the 302 would increase. 2028 is the new date given recently and seems to be merely a simple adjustment based on the Bombardier-induced delays in starting operations, and now CoViD-19 their effects on ridership.
Left unstated, however, has been what those ridership targets are that would trigger the process to move into final route plans, start expropriations, order more trams, open up RFQ and then RFP, and then finally construction. (Assuming funding is there, of course.)
Depending on local conditions, including like salaries for your staff, fuel/energy costs, etc…, LRTs become competitive with bus routes on an operational cost per ride somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 boardings per day, usually around 7,000, and outperform about 25-50% later. We left implementing our LRT until significantly later. As recently as 2018, the Region had been hinting that it would not wait as long in terms of the 302 getting crowded as it had for the iXpress 200 and 7, and that it might even be willing to do it slightly before it was fully viable in terms of that operating cost per ride. Those hints were always couched in terms of hurrying along densification being worth Stage 2 underperforming for a few years. Reading between the lines between of what local politicians said on the record or in just talking to people, a lot of people felt the Region was implying that it would do so in order to pacify Cambridge. After all, Cambriding having had to pay the extra property tax levies for Stage 1 while only being indirectly served by it is an undeniable political hot potato. Also, the usual 7% average annual growth for GRT ridership that is mentioned in Regional transportation documents wouldn't put what is now route 302 over 5,000/day until 2026 and over 10,000/d day until 2036, and that was seen by some as more evidence that Stage 2 would be built before it was viable in terms of that operational cost. (Numbers given to me by GRT for 2015-2018 showed an average of 10% annual growth, which would have brought the 302 to just under 6,500/day in 2025, do not know what recent, precoid numbers were.)
Maybe it's just me being cynical, but I think we have at least 2 and probably 3 municipal elections to go before we see a council authorise an RFQ for Stage 2 construction, because even if they get funding I cannot see political appetites (i.e., getting reelected) before the 302 reached 7,000 to 10,000 riders a day on average, likely some time after 2030. I will be highly surprised if the Council authorises Stage 2 construction at 5,000/day or fewer.