The COVID-19 pandemic

[ijmorlan]

So possibly we cannot achieve it. Ultimately, I'm not sure what the answer will be, but at a certain point, we have to get somewhere, and the biggest threat is the hospital system. Perhaps, people who refuse to vaccinate shouldn't get a bed when they get sick.

The medical system doesn’t like doing this. But, in the absence of unlimited resources, it would be bizarre to ignore individuals’ own choices in prioritizing care. Unvaccinated people have no business taking up all the beds and denying them to vaccinated people who still managed to get infected or who have a non-Covid-related problem.

I’m not sure what the line is, but Covid is a big enough single event with an obvious enough and essentially zero-cost avoidance strategy that this would be a good place to start. It’s not like saying that somebody who injured themselves diving shouldn’t have been … doing sports at all, in the limit.

Of course, start by not allowing any non-patients in the building (in particular, employees) who are not fully vaccinated. There is absolutely zero ethical problem with that whatsoever, not really anything to discuss except for the rules around issuing medical exemptions related to allergies and the like.

[ac3r]

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-07-16

Waterloo Region reported 19 new cases for today (7.6% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 24; 173 new cases for the week (-23 from yesterday and -111 from last week), averaging 8.5% of active cases. 224 active cases, -92 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,160 tests/day for the past week, with a 2.13% positivity rate, down from 6.37% the previous week.

7,243 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,595 (previous week was 8,790). 65.77% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +1.08% from 7 days ago), 46.02% fully vaccinated (+1.07% from yesterday, +8.68% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 159 new cases today with a seven-day average of 151 (-4). 189 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a decrease of 40 active cases and a new total of 1,403. -354 active cases for the week and 48 deaths (seven per day). 28,126 tests with a positivity rate of 0.57%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.67% for the past seven days, compared to 0.99% for the preceding seven. 119 patients in ICU (-11 today, -32 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 19
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 14 (47% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 1
  

168,616 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 170,078(previous week was 209,347). 69.51% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +0.87% from 7 days ago), 51.48% fully vaccinated (+1.00% from yesterday, +7.22% from 7 days ago).

• 25 cases in Waterloo: 4.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Hamilton: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Niagara: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Halton: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Durham: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  

[Chris]

Hey @tomh009

I just want to say thanks Tom for all the daily updates. I read everyone and appreciate the time and effort you put into this.

[danbrotherston]

[ac3r]

On optimistic days, I hope that the majority of those comments are Russian bots.

God we've got to fix our social media discourse.

4-5 years ago, I would have accepted that a good amount of people pushing such messages are botnets run by malicious actors. But in 2021, the virus of stupidity is enough to propagate such stuff on its own. Russia, Iran, China, far-right conservatives barely need to push any buttons these days. There are certainly malicious actors out there pushing this stuff for sure, but by now the seeds of conspiracy have been planted all over the place. These morons don't need bots to tell them how to think because this is their default mode of thinking.

However, I don't think we need to police social media in any matter, though. That won't fix anything. Those are the sort of goals that the GQP, Iran, North Korea, China, Libya, Syria, Russia etc promote. It stifles free speech in the end. The only reason we're not as fucked up as they are is because we are allowed to be stupid. That is why people in Russia can't write op-eds talking about how bad Putin is without being thrown in jail - or worse, killed. They can't make memes about Putin eating dicks. We can...we can both be morons or world renown philosophers in our part of the world.

People just need to stop being so fucking stupid over here. If we need our corporations and government to protect us from conspiracies then we are already so far gone it doesn't matter in my opinion. Improve education. Promote philosophy, science, critical theory, the arts etc. Teach kids to question things, to challenge, to create, to express. The problems are obvious - the media being a main issue. We're so addicted to the dopamine rush that TV and refreshing Instagram and Facebook provide that we don't really care to read something like The Critique of Cynical Reason or Faust.

Ultimately, I blame capitalism, but that's not a topic to discuss on WRC.

[Bjays93]

Ultimately, I blame capitalism, but that's not a topic to discuss on WRC.

I mean this is the off topic section lol and I do agree. 

I also find infuriating how clearly a combination of masks and vaccines should keep us safe in the long term. Like people would rather have a perpetual crisis, death, economic pain, on and off closures, rather than just do everything with a fucking mask it's really really stupid.

[danbrotherston]

On optimistic days, I hope that the majority of those comments are Russian bots.

God we've got to fix our social media discourse.

4-5 years ago, I would have accepted that a good amount of people pushing such messages are botnets run by malicious actors. But in 2021, the virus of stupidity is enough to propagate such stuff on its own. Russia, Iran, China, far-right conservatives barely need to push any buttons these days. There are certainly malicious actors out there pushing this stuff for sure, but by now the seeds of conspiracy have been planted all over the place. These morons don't need bots to tell them how to think because this is their default mode of thinking.

However, I don't think we need to police social media in any matter, though. That won't fix anything. Those are the sort of goals that the GQP, Iran, North Korea, China, Libya, Syria, Russia etc promote. It stifles free speech in the end. The only reason we're not as fucked up as they are is because we are allowed to be stupid. That is why people in Russia can't write op-eds talking about how bad Putin is without being thrown in jail - or worse, killed. They can't make memes about Putin eating dicks. We can...we can both be morons or world renown philosophers in our part of the world.

People just need to stop being so fucking stupid over here. If we need our corporations and government to protect us from conspiracies then we are already so far gone it doesn't matter in my opinion. Improve education. Promote philosophy, science, critical theory, the arts etc. Teach kids to question things, to challenge, to create, to express. The problems are obvious - the media being a main issue. We're so addicted to the dopamine rush that TV and refreshing Instagram and Facebook provide that we don't really care to read something like The Critique of Cynical Reason or Faust.

Ultimately, I blame capitalism, but that's not a topic to discuss on WRC.

I mean, this assumes that social media has some natural condition, and "policing" it would push it away from that natural position. But that isn't true, our feeds (at least outside of WRC) are all curated by algorithms, and the choices those algorithms make affect the things we see, and ultimately believe. Right now, corporations make the decisions about how these feeds should look, and do so to maximize advertising revenue. It isn't necessarily a good choice for society, but it is critical to note that it is an intentional choice, it is not the natural state.

(We've discussed this similar point WRT other things like urban planning, transportation, etc....)

As you point out, capitalism plays a role.

As for people not being so stupid, you're right, but just saying "don't be stupid" will never achieve that. Education can help inoculate, but there's a reason that doesn't happen in the US. We need to actually make structural changes if we want to see structural changes.

[jeffster]

I think the question is, what measures are we, as a society, willing to accept for the long term, in order to keep this under control? (And, yes, that answer is likely very different for us and for our neighbours to the south.)

I think the only things that are needed to control it will be masking and mass vaccination.

This is easy, trivial to achieve, yet there is a significant segment of the population throwing an absolute on the floor screaming like a toddler tantrum about it.

So possibly we cannot achieve it. Ultimately, I'm not sure what the answer will be, but at a certain point, we have to get somewhere, and the biggest threat is the hospital system. Perhaps, people who refuse to vaccinate shouldn't get a bed when they get sick.

We might not achieve 'under control' as this is likely endemic now. As you mentioned, best bet is vaccinations and masking may have to stay in place, at least indoors.

Mind you, if it certain that Pfizer is safe for 11 and under, if that group is vaccinated at the same rate as the rest (looks like 85% is achievable), AND, we make it mandatory for health care workers to be vaccinated, AND, we make it mandatory for travellers to be vaccinated, AND, any large indoor gathering (NHL, OHL, concerts, etc) are only only accessible by vaccinated people, I think we'd make such a huge dent in covid that it will no longer be in the news, no longer discussed here, and most people will be happy.

We might need boosters on a regular basis. Maybe, at some point, media delivery will be a nasal spray or pill.

Our families last vaccination will be July 25th -- we'll all have two vaccines. I might ask for a 2nd Moderna though, as my first was AZ, and there might be issues with travel. While our government and PHAC is saying that mixed doses are OK, we seem to be outliers in that case. Hopefully they recommend a 3rd vaccination so we have matched vaccinations.

[tomh009]

4-5 years ago, I would have accepted that a good amount of people pushing such messages are botnets run by malicious actors. But in 2021, the virus of stupidity is enough to propagate such stuff on its own. Russia, Iran, China, far-right conservatives barely need to push any buttons these days. There are certainly malicious actors out there pushing this stuff for sure, but by now the seeds of conspiracy have been planted all over the place. These morons don't need bots to tell them how to think because this is their default mode of thinking.
(...)
Ultimately, I blame capitalism, but that's not a topic to discuss on WRC.

Allow me to assure you, such stupidity does not require any specific economic system. And, on the flip side, there are many capitalist countries (to me, a social democracy is still fundamentally capitalist) where this is a far, far smaller problem. That country to the south of us, though ...

[danbrotherston]

4-5 years ago, I would have accepted that a good amount of people pushing such messages are botnets run by malicious actors. But in 2021, the virus of stupidity is enough to propagate such stuff on its own. Russia, Iran, China, far-right conservatives barely need to push any buttons these days. There are certainly malicious actors out there pushing this stuff for sure, but by now the seeds of conspiracy have been planted all over the place. These morons don't need bots to tell them how to think because this is their default mode of thinking.
(...)
Ultimately, I blame capitalism, but that's not a topic to discuss on WRC.

Allow me to assure you, such stupidity does not require any specific economic system. And, on the flip side, there are many capitalist countries (to me, a social democracy is still fundamentally capitalist) where this is a far, far smaller problem. That country to the south of us, though ...

There are "capitalist countries" which have policies in place to avoid and mitigate some of the worst excesses of capitalism. That does not mean that capitalism is not the cause of these problems, only that those countries have effectively reigned it in.

Capitalism, ultimately, is a tool like any other, and just like a hammer is a useful tool to put in a nail, it can be a very bad tool when used indiscriminately. That country to the south of us has a mythos where capitalism is believe to be a universally good force (except when it comes to parking somehow).

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 80.6
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 29.4
• Porcupine Health Unit 20.4
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 16.7
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 12.3
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 11.8
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 10.1
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 9.6
• Southwestern Public Health 9.5
• Huron Perth Public Health 8.6

• TOTAL ONTARIO 7.1

Numbers continue to improve for RoW — not so much in Grey Bruce. Ontario remains in ‘the green’ according to the old colouring scheme.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-07-17 (posting this every Saturday).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Waterloo	20	3.2	31	5.0	-39%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	10	3.7	7	2.6	+31%
Middlesex-London	6	1.5	8	1.9	+48%
Hamilton	9	1.6	10	1.6	-33%
Huron Perth	3	3.1	2	1.6	+35%
Southwestern Ontario	4	2.0	3	1.3	-13%
Peel	20	1.4	17	1.2	-44%
Halton	10	1.8	7	1.2	+20%
Lambton	1	.8	1	1.0	-65%
Ontario total					-16%

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-07-17

Waterloo Region reported 26 new cases for today (11.6% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 19; 170 new cases for the week (-3 from yesterday and -92 from last week), averaging 8.9% of active cases. 206 active cases, -110 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 176 new cases today with a seven-day average of 151 (+0). 203 recoveries and three deaths translated to a decrease of 30 active cases and a new total of 1,373. -337 active cases for the week and 43 deaths (six per day). 21,392 tests with a positivity rate of 0.82%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.68% for the past seven days, compared to 0.92% for the preceding seven. 112 patients in ICU (-7 today, -36 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 11
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 132 (54% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 1
  

169,103 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 164,592 (previous week was 208,919). 69.65% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +0.87% from 7 days ago), 52.49% fully vaccinated (+1.01% from yesterday, +6.96% from 7 days ago). The pace of second shots has dropped off somewhat in the past week, likely because there are fewer people eligible for them due to the timing of the first shots. A seven-percentage point increase over a week is still absolute tops in the world, though -- the next-best big country was Italy at 5.35%.

• 10 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Waterloo: 3.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Halton: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Hamilton: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Middlesex-London: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Peel: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Thunder Bay: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Toronto: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Durham: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in York: 1.0 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 89.5
• Porcupine Health Unit 31.2
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 30.1
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 14.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 13.9
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 11.1
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 10.8
• Huron Perth Public Health 8.6
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 8.5
• Southwestern Public Health 7.6

• TOTAL ONTARIO 7.2

Numbers in Ontario might be stablizing now, though they could drop further once regions in “orange” and “red” drop to yellow or green.