01-02-2021, 12:23 PM
Close to 6000 cases and 95 deaths in Ontario over the last 48 hours...yikes.
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The COVID-19 pandemic
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01-02-2021, 02:17 PM
10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-01 (posting this every two days).
Notably Toronto's number for Thursday (499) is missing data and thus is too low. No word yet on when they will have a correction for that. Our regional numbers are surprisingly low.
01-02-2021, 03:10 PM
FRIDAY 2021-01-01
Waterloo Region reported 68 new cases today (12.9% of the active cases). 500 new cases for the week (-9), averaging 12.7% of active cases. 532 active cases, -64 in the last seven days. An average of only 709 tests reported for the past three days which seems way too low, and the resulting positivity of 12% way too high. Ontario reported 2,476 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,481 (+45). 2,460 recoveries and 51 deaths translated to a drop of 35 active cases and a current total of 21,582. +1,894 active cases for the week and 260 deaths (37 per day). 70,570 tests -- a new record -- for a positivity rate of 3.51%. The positivity rate is averaging 5.38% for the past seven days, compared to 3.88% for the preceding seven. Further in the list of bad news, 336 patients in ICU (-1) and a total of 1,260 hospital beds (+262 for the week).
01-02-2021, 03:25 PM
SATURDAY 2021-01-02
Waterloo Region reported 106 new cases today (19.9% of the active cases) -- are some of these delayed from the earlier dates which looked low? 542 new cases for the week (+33), averaging 14.0% of active cases. 586 active cases, -71 in the last seven days. Next testing report on Tuesday. Ontario reported 3,363 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,655 (+219). 2,054 recoveries and 44 deaths translated to an increase of 1,265 active cases and a current total of 22,847. +2,968 active cases for the week and 266 deaths (38 per day). 61,401 tests for a positivity rate of 5.48%. The positivity rate is averaging 5.55% for the past seven days, compared to 4.00% for the preceding seven. 322 patients in ICU (-14).
Waterloo Region will look worse tomorrow once the province has today's regional case numbers.
01-03-2021, 04:19 PM
SUNDAY 2021-01-03
Waterloo Region reported 93 new cases today (15.0% of the active cases) -- and added 35 more to yesterday's 106 for a new total of 141. 617 new cases for the week (+75), averaging 15.9% of active cases. 619 active cases, +16 in the last seven days. Next testing report on Tuesday. Ontario reported 2,964 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,792 (+137). 2,175 recoveries and 25 deaths translated to an increase of 764 active cases and a current total of 23,611. +3,750 active cases for the week and 273 deaths (39 per day). 49,803 tests for a positivity rate of 5.95%. The positivity rate is averaging 5.71% for the past seven days, compared to 4.21% for the preceding seven. 337 patients in ICU (+14).
01-04-2021, 02:55 PM
MONDAY 2021-01-04
Waterloo Region reported 133 new cases today (21.3% of the active cases); 705 new cases for the week (+88), averaging 17.9% of active cases. 659 active cases, +102 in the last seven days. Next testing report on Tuesday. Ontario reported 3,270 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,982 (+190). 2,074 recoveries and 29 deaths translated to an increase of 1,167 active cases and a current total of 24,778. +5,166 active cases for the week and 265 deaths (38 per day). 39,121 tests for an ugly positivity rate of 8.36%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.21% for the past seven days, compared to 4.35% for the preceding seven. 333 patients in ICU (+4).
The numbers have been up and down over the past week with the reduced testing and the intermittent reporting. I'm expecting to see data with higher confidence this week. I'm just not confident that it will be numbers that I will be happy to see. 
For the second time this month, Trinity Bible Chapel has been charged with keeping its doors open and services running during the worst period of the pandemic: https://outline.com/g8yyd6
Hopefully they're shut down.
01-04-2021, 03:46 PM
(01-04-2021, 03:25 PM)ac3r Wrote: For the second time this month, Trinity Bible Chapel has been charged with keeping its doors open and services running during the worst period of the pandemic: https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-...ience.html From the story: Quote:“We are not criminals,” (Jacob Reaume) wrote He's indeed a criminal -- as is anyone who commits a crime. And a liar, too. There are already two church outbreaks in the region, and these people are flouting the law and risking everyone else's health, because they feel they are above the law. The region should request an injunction to prevent people from entering the church. 
01-04-2021, 04:11 PM
(01-04-2021, 03:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: He's indeed a criminal -- as is anyone who commits a crime. And a liar, too. We’re getting ample confirmation, once again, that in fact prayer does not work to avoid illness. They’re entitled to their religious beliefs, but not to impose the consequences of those beliefs on the rest of us. If necessary, the next step should be to set up a checkpoint at the driveway entrance Sunday morning and give people the choice of turning back or being ticketed. No-one gets in to the property without being identified and ticketed.
01-04-2021, 05:16 PM
(01-04-2021, 04:11 PM)ijmorlan Wrote:(01-04-2021, 03:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: He's indeed a criminal -- as is anyone who commits a crime. And a liar, too. Indeed. Of course, we'll see if anything actually happens. That being said, the situation in the US is far more extreme, we are watching protestors, not protesting in buildings, but swarming malls and businesses and intentionally antagonizing people, and in some cases actually physically assaulting people who are wearing masks, and otherwise creating a disturbance and refusing to leave. And rarely, even for these very clear, non-pandemic time crimes (assault is a crime, so is trespassing) no charges are being laid. A very scary place to be in the US right now, where being a criminal relates not to committing a crime, but who you are.
01-04-2021, 05:16 PM
(01-04-2021, 03:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote:Quote:“We are not criminals,” (Jacob Reaume) wrote Surely these are just provincial offenses, not criminal charges? (01-04-2021, 03:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: There are already two church outbreaks in the region Where did you get this information? I looked at the outbreak list here: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx and I don't see any churches? Thanks by the way for your daily updates on here, they are my go-to to get an idea of what is going on in WR.
01-04-2021, 05:44 PM
(01-04-2021, 05:16 PM)highlander Wrote:(01-04-2021, 03:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: There are already two church outbreaks in the region They are called "congregate setting outbreaks". One with nine cases, the other with 16. And the second one is from the 29th, after the start of the shutdown, so it's a pretty easy guess who is doing the superspreading in Waterloo Region. Sharing wine, bread and COVID-19 ...
01-04-2021, 07:45 PM
(01-04-2021, 05:16 PM)highlander Wrote: Surely these are just provincial offenses, not criminal charges? Well that is an interesting question. Gathering together where prohibited and going maskless where masks are required are presumably bylaw violations. But encouraging large numbers of people to gather and violate those bylaws looks to me more like criminal negligence. Not a lawyer, but then again the above is a mix in an undetermined ratio of what I think the law is with what I think it ought to be, seasoned by my own ideas of the ethics of the situation.
01-04-2021, 08:55 PM
(01-04-2021, 05:44 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(01-04-2021, 05:16 PM)highlander Wrote: Where did you get this information? I looked at the outbreak list here: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx and I don't see any churches? I see the misunderstanding, from Public Health Ontario: "Congregate living settings refer to a range of facilities where people (most or all of whom are not related) live or stay overnight and use shared spaces (e.g., common sleeping areas, bathrooms, kitchens) including: Shelters Group homes Correctional facilities Children or youth residential settings" Does anyone know if there a list of the outbreaks in Waterloo Region since the beginning of the pandemic?
01-05-2021, 12:34 PM
10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-05 (posting this every two days).
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