General Politics Discussion

[tomh009]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens when the "strong mayors" decide to do things that the PC government wasn't anticipating (eg anything left of centre that Doug Ford railed against while he was on Toronto City Council).

I am betting that this won't happen.

Mostly because I'm cynical...

The left is rarely bold, often afraid of it's own shadow.

I might expect some bold moves by Olivia Chow, assuming she is elected. Most mayors tend to be centrist, though.

[JoeKW]

Doesn't the strong mayor powers only help to further the goals of the province?

[danbrotherston]

I am betting that this won't happen.

Mostly because I'm cynical...

The left is rarely bold, often afraid of it's own shadow.

I might expect some bold moves by Olivia Chow, assuming she is elected. Most mayors tend to be centrist, though.

I don't know her well enough, but certainly she'd be the most progressive mayor I know of in the province, probably on par with Valérie Plante.

I do hope she gets elected, but I'm not holding my breath. Frankly, if none of the crazy nutjobs win, I think it'll be a win.

[KevinL]

Chow is leading in the polls, so fingers crossed.

[timio]

Doesn't the strong mayor powers only help to further the goals of the province?

That was my understanding.

[tomh009]

Doesn't the strong mayor powers only help to further the goals of the province?

That was my understanding.

That's what the provincial government expects, yes. But they will strengthen the hand of any mayor: even if not actually used, the potential of the mayor overriding the council may sway some councilors towards negotiating a compromise rather than trying to block the mayor.

[danbrotherston]

With Chow's win in Toronto and the strong mayors powers, anyone have a good sense if she can unilaterally cancel the Gardiner project?

Given the utterly immense amount of funding that would require such a move would seem to be an unbelievably smart move. Yeah, you piss off a handful of suburbanites, but in return you free up enough funding to pay off basically every other person in the city.

[ijmorlan]

With Chow's win in Toronto and the strong mayors powers, anyone have a good sense if she can unilaterally cancel the Gardiner project?

Given the utterly immense amount of funding that would require such a move would seem to be an unbelievably smart move. Yeah, you piss off a handful of suburbanites, but in return you free up enough funding to pay off basically every other person in the city.

I don’t know whether it’s within her power or not.

Regardless, I don’t expect it. The bad projects seem to have an unstoppable momentum (Scarborough subway, Ontario Line), whereas the good ones can be cancelled almost anytime (Scarborough LRT network, Downtown Relief Line).

[danbrotherston]

With Chow's win in Toronto and the strong mayors powers, anyone have a good sense if she can unilaterally cancel the Gardiner project?

Given the utterly immense amount of funding that would require such a move would seem to be an unbelievably smart move. Yeah, you piss off a handful of suburbanites, but in return you free up enough funding to pay off basically every other person in the city.

I don’t know whether it’s within her power or not.

Regardless, I don’t expect it. The bad projects seem to have an unstoppable momentum (Scarborough subway, Ontario Line), whereas the good ones can be cancelled almost anytime (Scarborough LRT network, Downtown Relief Line).

I mean, that's a perception...but it's only a result of a strongly conservative council...which has now changed.

I also think the subways are different...they might be less optimal (although I find the objections to the Ontario line pretty weak) but they aren't an wildly destructive as the Gardiner project. And the Gardiner project is also not as far along as the others I believe.

FWIW...I do think there is a risk in cancelling in progress projects (Toronto has made this mistake many times) but the Gardiner is one that I think could be cancelled at this point.

[ijmorlan]

I mean, that's a perception...but it's only a result of a strongly conservative council...which has now changed.

I also think the subways are different...they might be less optimal (although I find the objections to the Ontario line pretty weak) but they aren't an wildly destructive as the Gardiner project. And the Gardiner project is also not as far along as the others I believe.

They’re not as bad as rebuilding the Gardiner, but both projects I mentioned are pretty bad.

In Scarborough, they are spending the same money that could build an entire network of high-quality LRT with dozens of stations on a subway expansion that only adds a couple of new stations and eliminates most of the existing RT stations; I believe they will end up with fewer mass transit stations than there are now.

The Ontario line will be a different technology from the subway network thanks to Doug Ford and the route was laid down by Doug Ford, not by designers and engineers who actually know what they are doing. The alternative is another subway line using identical technology to the existing lines. The different technology is to save money in tunnelling (narrower tunnels), which is nice, but there is a cost in having a multiplicity of technologies, and their Scarborough and Eglinton West plans prove they don’t actually care about saving money (which reminds me of your observations about what true fiscal conservatism might look like — not penny-pinching on transit and building roads all over the place, that much is sure). And if I remember correctly the route changes are to allow more “savings” by bridging rather than tunneling the Don River, ignoring the fact that transitioning back and forth between above and below ground imposes its own costs.

FWIW...I do think there is a risk in cancelling in progress projects (Toronto has made this mistake many times) but the Gardiner is one that I think could be cancelled at this point.

Yes, the Gardiner really isn’t very far along. So maybe there is some hope! I would say that while I am almost certain the subway projects I named are bad projects, compared to the alternatives which were cancelled, I’m not absolutely confident that cancelling them is the correct choice. By contrast, I feel quite confident agreeing that the Gardiner should be cancelled (both the existing project and the road segment).

[danbrotherston]

I mean, that's a perception...but it's only a result of a strongly conservative council...which has now changed.

I also think the subways are different...they might be less optimal (although I find the objections to the Ontario line pretty weak) but they aren't an wildly destructive as the Gardiner project. And the Gardiner project is also not as far along as the others I believe.

They’re not as bad as rebuilding the Gardiner, but both projects I mentioned are pretty bad.

In Scarborough, they are spending the same money that could build an entire network of high-quality LRT with dozens of stations on a subway expansion that only adds a couple of new stations and eliminates most of the existing RT stations; I believe they will end up with fewer mass transit stations than there are now.

The Ontario line will be a different technology from the subway network thanks to Doug Ford and the route was laid down by Doug Ford, not by designers and engineers who actually know what they are doing. The alternative is another subway line using identical technology to the existing lines. The different technology is to save money in tunnelling (narrower tunnels), which is nice, but there is a cost in having a multiplicity of technologies, and their Scarborough and Eglinton West plans prove they don’t actually care about saving money (which reminds me of your observations about what true fiscal conservatism might look like — not penny-pinching on transit and building roads all over the place, that much is sure). And if I remember correctly the route changes are to allow more “savings” by bridging rather than tunneling the Don River, ignoring the fact that transitioning back and forth between above and below ground imposes its own costs.

FWIW...I do think there is a risk in cancelling in progress projects (Toronto has made this mistake many times) but the Gardiner is one that I think could be cancelled at this point.

Yes, the Gardiner really isn’t very far along. So maybe there is some hope! I would say that while I am almost certain the subway projects I named are bad projects, compared to the alternatives which were cancelled, I’m not absolutely confident that cancelling them is the correct choice. By contrast, I feel quite confident agreeing that the Gardiner should be cancelled (both the existing project and the road segment).

Yeah exactly, we more or less agree here. To me, the Gardiner has no upsides at all, it's not just a net negative, its an absolute negative. Where as the other two are mediocre, but have some benefits in addition to the issues.

FWIW...I do have much bigger issues with the Scarborough subway than the Ontario line...the Ontario line alignment at least, yes, picked by DoFo, but it does provide important transit connections both across downtown where transit is really needed, as well as to the existing lines, and across new areas that *could* be intensified if the right people were there to permit that intensification.

The problem with the Scarborough subway is much bigger and if I could cancel it, I would. But "could" only comes in the form of realistically being able to put something else in place in the same timeframe. To be honest, I don't really understand why the TTC feels they can no longer operate the RT...if it's just a cost thing....well that's a bad excuse, if there's a safety issue due to the breakdown of the equipment...well it's odd that they can foresee that occurring in the future.

[KevinL]

The SRT's trains are falling apart and won't make it through another winter. There is no train stock available that can traverse the same tracks (particularly the tunnels and corners) without extensive (and expensive) modifications to trains, tunnels, or both.

These facts have been known for over a decade, but repeated municipal waffling and inaction means that the existing Line 3 will have to shut down a good 7 years before its replacement service opens.

At least the section between Kennedy and Ellesmere can be made into a busway in the interim, and Olivia Chow has made that a priority.

[ijmorlan]

If Rob Ford hadn’t been elected in 2010, the Sheppard LRT would have been running for several years by now to U of T Scarborough, and the RT would have been converted to LRT and extended north of Sheppard to Malvern. Note that this also means there would have been a true LRT network — several lines using the same interchangeable technology and able to benefit from economy of scale. For example, the network would need only a single delivery track.

[danbrotherston]

The SRT's trains are falling apart and won't make it through another winter. There is no train stock available that can traverse the same tracks (particularly the tunnels and corners) without extensive (and expensive) modifications to trains, tunnels, or both.

These facts have been known for over a decade, but repeated municipal waffling and inaction means that the existing Line 3 will have to shut down a good 7 years before its replacement service opens.

At least the section between Kennedy and Ellesmere can be made into a busway in the interim, and Olivia Chow has made that a priority.

This is a vague and unsubstantiated claim. It's the same kind of thing I've heard from TTC constantly.

WHAT is falling apart. What will stop them working through the winter?

The fact that TTC will not answer these questions specifically (and nobody is willing to ask them) suggests that there are other motives here.

In my opinion the real answer is that the maintenance cost is escalating. The trains are old and old trains require more maintenance. This isn't impossible, it is just expensive, but again, the unwillingness to give an accurate and specific statement on this is what makes me so angry.

If they said "well, these are the repairs we expect the trains to need, these parts must be fabricated, it will cost 80 million in additional maintenance to operate the RT...or 40 million to operate at reduced service using the trains in best mechanical condition, or 20 million to build an interim busway"

Then I'd actually believe their statements....but they've said nothing more than vague bullshit....

This is why I don't trust them!

[ijmorlan]

The SRT's trains are falling apart and won't make it through another winter. There is no train stock available that can traverse the same tracks (particularly the tunnels and corners) without extensive (and expensive) modifications to trains, tunnels, or both.

These facts have been known for over a decade, but repeated municipal waffling and inaction means that the existing Line 3 will have to shut down a good 7 years before its replacement service opens.

At least the section between Kennedy and Ellesmere can be made into a busway in the interim, and Olivia Chow has made that a priority.

If they said "well, these are the repairs we expect the trains to need, these parts must be fabricated, it will cost 80 million in additional maintenance to operate the RT...or 40 million to operate at reduced service using the trains in best mechanical condition, or 20 million to build an interim busway"

The Scarborough RT has always been trouble. It was supposed to be built as effectively an LRT line using streetcars on a dedicated right of way. That’s why when it opened the vehicles reversed at Kennedy station by looping around above the station entrance. But the vehicles they ended up using derailed on the tight curve. The maximum speed around the curve was reduced to avoid the derailments and eventually a switch was installed and the platform extended over where one of the tracks had been so they now reverse in the usual way.

Why did they switch vehicles? Because the Ontario government wanted a made-in-Ontario transit technology. They believed there was space for something less than a subway but more than a streetcar, hence ICTS (Intermediate Capacity Transit System), but they didn’t know about LRTs. I guess flights to Europe were too expensive at the time.

The following has more information:

https://transittoronto.ca/subway/5107.shtml

Also check out Steve Munro’s website:

https://stevemunro.ca

I am aware that the exact same technology works well in Vancouver. There are 2 main differences: the weather is much better there (specifically, warmer temperatures and very little snow), and it’s a huge system rather than a one-off line using its own technology (like the Ontario line will be).

The above does not fully explain why the line is falling apart. But the Transit City plan had the RT being replaced by a Transit City LRT line, either as part of preparations for the 2015 Pan Am games or with the line closing for construction immediately afterwards. I assume they let maintenance, already overpriced, slide during that time. At this point restoring it to full operation would be a very large project and probably doesn’t make sense. That doesn’t explain why we don’t turn it into an LRT line as previously planned; as far as I can see you might not even have to replace the track — it’s already standard gauge, unlike the subway and streetcar, so just rip out the linear induction stuff, install new overhead and signalling, and re-work the stations to bring the track to the appropriate level in the stations for our LRVs.

I hope that explains some of the background. Rob Ford and Dalton McGuinty have a lot to answer for. Why Dalton McGuinty? Because Rob Ford only actually delayed Transit City by a couple of years; less than 2 years after he took office Council voted to resume LRT construction, but the province slow-walked everything rather than just continuing from where they left off.