04-15-2021, 07:41 AM
(04-14-2021, 07:10 PM)Bytor Wrote: The 301 has a week day ridership of ~3,000 and with the southern half of the former 200 it has a yearly growth rate that will like get it to rough 8,000/day in 10 years. The 206 (which Stage 2 will draw from in part) has ~2,200/day, but is too early to tell annual growth trends.
The 201's ridership south of Ottawa disappears dramatically, and the 10 is only at ~1,800/day and dropping since a peak in fall 2018. Unless something changes drastically, ridership into Pioneer Park and lower Doon down to Conestoga College is not going to be anywhere close to warranting an LRT. The 10 needs to double it's boardings and be showing an average 10% annual growth trend for 5+ years to be where the 302 was just prior to the pandemic. It needs to hit 13k/day to be as heavily used as the 7 was.
As a comparison, the 201 in September 2018 had ~7,100/weekday compared to the 200's ~10,000/weekday.
Thanks. Ultimately, it'll definitely be a long time before we see any concrete plans for rapid transit on the west side of the city that would connect the Doon area. The next LRT line they build will likely be something simple going East-West to service the Victoria and Highland corridors but even that will likely be 20-25+ years out. Highland is densely populated residential and Victoria has a lot of potential for redevelopment so it makes the most sense to me. It also leaves open a connection to both the suburb of Breslau, Breslau GO station and YKF which would be important connections for long-term regional growth.