10-17-2019, 07:21 AM
There is a great deal of talk about the spectre of a "coalition government." My view is that the Conservatives are just using it as part of their get out the vote right now, but they'll continue to push it if the PM does anything but promptly resign if the Tories win the most seats next week.
I think you're wrong on a couple of counts. "Scheer is keenly aware that if he doesn't win a majority no other party will support the Conservatives." That's not true, and recent history disproves it. It is very conceivable that the Tories could govern, supported by the Bloc on some issues and strategic abstaining by the NDP and Liberals. That isn't hard to imagine.
"If the Liberals fail to get a majority they will have no problem forming a government with the NDP (and the Greens if their seats are needed)." I think that's wrong, too. Not that it can't happen, or is impossible, but "no problem" is an understatement. There are plenty of risks to them. Trudeau will have lost after a single majority government, quite a feat, and there will be plenty of Liberals I'm sure questioning whether they will want to be seen as moving even further to the left.
I think you're wrong on a couple of counts. "Scheer is keenly aware that if he doesn't win a majority no other party will support the Conservatives." That's not true, and recent history disproves it. It is very conceivable that the Tories could govern, supported by the Bloc on some issues and strategic abstaining by the NDP and Liberals. That isn't hard to imagine.
"If the Liberals fail to get a majority they will have no problem forming a government with the NDP (and the Greens if their seats are needed)." I think that's wrong, too. Not that it can't happen, or is impossible, but "no problem" is an understatement. There are plenty of risks to them. Trudeau will have lost after a single majority government, quite a feat, and there will be plenty of Liberals I'm sure questioning whether they will want to be seen as moving even further to the left.