2019 Federal Election

[danbrotherston]

likely a minority government....

I'm not so sure. The NDP won Burnaby last night, but that should be a given that the leader wins his seat. They lost Outremont, which could foretell a poor showing in Quebec. The Liberals may do very well in Quebec again.

My thinking is that, if Bernier polls well between not and autumn, the Tories may try to shore up their base with various more-rightist policies and messaging that the Liberals can capitalize on to capture swing voters who might be easily convinced that Scheer is as "scary" as Harper. It's not hard to imagine Scheer saying something to a group like that truck convoy in Ottawa last week that the Liberals successfully turn into this cycle's version of the "old stock Canadians" remark.

I believe the Liberals have the possibility of campaigning to younger voters with the same type of more progressive rhetoric they used in 2015; and to older, more moderate voters with their actual record of governance since.

It's going to take some serious scare mongering to get most progressives to vote Liberal again...to quote the second worst US president in my lifetime and...a painter, fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice...well you don't fool me twice.