Waterloo Region Connected
2019 Federal Election - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: 2019 Federal Election (/showthread.php?tid=1380)

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RE: 2019 Federal Election - ijmorlan - 10-14-2019

(10-14-2019, 09:10 AM)jgsz Wrote:
(10-13-2019, 09:49 PM)ijmorlan Wrote: All of them. That’s how it is supposed to work.
....

That's a rather fanciful and romanticised notion of what an independent representative can do.  I suspect those who favour independents are folks who are quite comfortable with the status quo.   I say that because a parliament full of independents (338 in the Canadian parliament) would, at best, accomplish absolutely nothing.  At worst, they would create chaos and anarchy.  

We have political parties to accomplish things.  Would it help if political parties were called "teams?"  We have political parties, or teams, if you prefer, because they are more effective than individuals.  That's why we have sports teams.  Can you imagine what would happen if the Kitchener Rangers were independents and not team players?  They would never win!  Same would be true in politics.  If independents is such a good idea why are there no democratic governments in the world made up of independents?  Because it's not a good idea.  That's why.

Regardless, I'd like to discuss the need for PR rather than political parties.

You asked who the independent representative would represent, and I said everybody. I think an independent representative is starting from a better place in representing everybody in their riding than a loyal party member, who is usually beholden to the party line. And I don’t see the problem with a parliament full of independents. They would be elected by their constituents, so if they produced chaos and anarchy presumably they would be replaced by others. And it is much easier to “fire” a representative under ranked choice than under our current system.

You say that no democratic governments in the world are made up of independents. Thousands of city councils are all counterexamples. And just because something isn’t common doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea — that’s just hopelessly inept argumentation. By your argument, first past the post is peachy keen, because it’s everywhere, even though it should be nowhere.

Also please note that I am not suggesting that we abolish political parties (how would that even work?) just that one thing I don’t like about PR is that it institutionalizes the concept of political parties. Right now, the actual voting system doesn’t mention political parties, other than to specify that the political party label of each candidate is written on the ballot. But even that is just a convenience — hypothetically, our elections could run exactly as they do with no mention of political parties in the rules for balloting. This is true because we vote for representatives. Under PR, or at least under many PR systems, we would vote for a political party, not for a representative.

If we switched to ranked ballots, small parties and independents would find it easier to make progress. Big parties would still attract many 2nd place votes as they do now, but those 2nd place votes would only count if voters’ real preference of a 3rd party or independent didn’t get elected.

Of course, I am making some possibly foolish assumptions about the quality of thinking that goes into voting. Some people are concerned about the supposed complexity of a ranked ballot, and if those concerns are valid, then indeed there is likely no good voting system. People who are too dull to understand the basic meaning of a ranked ballot are really people that ideally would stay home on voting day and keep their mouths shut whenever political topics (or any topics, really) arise in conversation.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - tomh009 - 10-14-2019

(10-13-2019, 07:06 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Not sure districts of 10 MPs would be feasible when we have a province with only 4 MPs, barring even more profound changes to the system.

In my off-the-cuff suggestion of a target of 10 MPs per district, we would cap the district size at provincial boundaries, giving the smallest provinces a single smaller district. Provinces with 11-20 MPs might have two, and so on.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - danbrotherston - 10-15-2019

(10-13-2019, 04:31 PM)tomh009 Wrote:
(10-12-2019, 11:25 AM)ijmorlan Wrote: There are a wide variety of PR systems, not all of which suffer from the “party list” problem. Some systems have some members elected from each district, with additional ones appointed to make up the proportional totals. It’s also possible to take “extra” votes from ridings which elect someone overwhelmingly and use them to elect members of the same party from other ridings.

What I don’t like about PR is that it entrenches the concept of parties. My hope with ranked ballots is that it would make it much more likely for independents to get elected. If a popular member were to quit their party, or if a well-known local person were to run separately from any party, they might find it easier to attract votes if their voters can put a “2” next to one of the major parties. Similarly smaller parties would find it easier. How many current Liberal votes are really “2” votes from people who really want to vote Green or NDP?

A popular independent could certainly get elected with PR, given a reasonable electoral district size -- maybe 10 or so seats per electoral district.

I would prefer PR, and I have no issue with coalition governments. But I would certainly accept ranked ballots, as pretty much anything is an improvement over FPTP. STV (multi-member ranked ballot) with, again, a reasonable electoral district size would not be terrible at all, I think.

Dan, when you say ranked ballots don't work, are you specifically referring to single-member constituency ranked ballots?

Yes, and when I say "don't work" I mean they do not result in a highly proportional government.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - tomh009 - 10-15-2019

(10-15-2019, 11:48 AM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(10-13-2019, 04:31 PM)tomh009 Wrote: I would prefer PR, and I have no issue with coalition governments. But I would certainly accept ranked ballots, as pretty much anything is an improvement over FPTP. STV (multi-member ranked ballot) with, again, a reasonable electoral district size would not be terrible at all, I think.

Dan, when you say ranked ballots don't work, are you specifically referring to single-member constituency ranked ballots?

Yes, and when I say "don't work" I mean they do not result in a highly proportional government.

Understood -- that's a deficiency of any voting system that uses a single-member constituency.

But STV (which is also a ranked ballot) would (could) result in a reasonably high degree of proportionality, as long as the electoral districts are not too small.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - ijmorlan - 10-15-2019

(10-15-2019, 03:37 PM)tomh009 Wrote:
(10-15-2019, 11:48 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: Yes, and when I say "don't work" I mean they do not result in a highly proportional government.

Understood -- that's a deficiency of any voting system that uses a single-member constituency.

But STV (which is also a ranked ballot) would (could) result in a reasonably high degree of proportionality, as long as the electoral districts are not too small.

I think advocates of PR often take as given what they are advocating. Why should the Commons have representatives proportionate to the party popular vote?

I agree it shouldn’t be wildly dis-proportionate, but to use proportionality itself as the yardstick against which appropriateness of representation is measured is circular reasoning.

Here is an alternative proposal (I don’t specifically support this over every other proposal, but I think it’s interesting), which I challenge any PR advocate to refute: give each party a number of MPs proportional to the square root of their popular vote. I understand that this tends to match power more closely to vote share. In particular, in the event that one party gets a majority of vote share, they get lots of power but not all the power.

I think it’s more important for new parties and even independents to be able to attract supporters than for the MP counts to exactly match the vote counts.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - KevinL - 10-15-2019

Another example of a body made entirely of independents: all three of Canada's territorial legislatures work without parties, by mutual consensus.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - danbrotherston - 10-15-2019

(10-15-2019, 03:37 PM)tomh009 Wrote:
(10-15-2019, 11:48 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: Yes, and when I say "don't work" I mean they do not result in a highly proportional government.

Understood -- that's a deficiency of any voting system that uses a single-member constituency.

But STV (which is also a ranked ballot) would (could) result in a reasonably high degree of proportionality, as long as the electoral districts are not too small.

Yes, I strongly support STV.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - danbrotherston - 10-15-2019

(10-15-2019, 04:44 PM)ijmorlan Wrote:
(10-15-2019, 03:37 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Understood -- that's a deficiency of any voting system that uses a single-member constituency.

But STV (which is also a ranked ballot) would (could) result in a reasonably high degree of proportionality, as long as the electoral districts are not too small.

I think advocates of PR often take as given what they are advocating. Why should the Commons have representatives proportionate to the party popular vote?

I agree it shouldn’t be wildly dis-proportionate, but to use proportionality itself as the yardstick against which appropriateness of representation is measured is circular reasoning.

Here is an alternative proposal (I don’t specifically support this over every other proposal, but I think it’s interesting), which I challenge any PR advocate to refute: give each party a number of MPs proportional to the square root of their popular vote. I understand that this tends to match power more closely to vote share. In particular, in the event that one party gets a majority of vote share, they get lots of power but not all the power.

I think it’s more important for new parties and even independents to be able to attract supporters than for the MP counts to exactly match the vote counts.

I really don't understand your comment here.  I am not saying there aren't other considerations, but proportionality is fundamentally the point of government...being less proportional is bad...yes, we may be able to tolerate some as a trade off for other considerations, but I don't understand how one must justify the idea that government should be of the people.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - ijmorlan - 10-15-2019

(10-15-2019, 07:03 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(10-15-2019, 04:44 PM)ijmorlan Wrote: I think advocates of PR often take as given what they are advocating. Why should the Commons have representatives proportionate to the party popular vote?

I agree it shouldn’t be wildly dis-proportionate, but to use proportionality itself as the yardstick against which appropriateness of representation is measured is circular reasoning.

Here is an alternative proposal (I don’t specifically support this over every other proposal, but I think it’s interesting), which I challenge any PR advocate to refute: give each party a number of MPs proportional to the square root of their popular vote. I understand that this tends to match power more closely to vote share. In particular, in the event that one party gets a majority of vote share, they get lots of power but not all the power.

I think it’s more important for new parties and even independents to be able to attract supporters than for the MP counts to exactly match the vote counts.

I really don't understand your comment here.  I am not saying there aren't other considerations, but proportionality is fundamentally the point of government...being less proportional is bad...yes, we may be able to tolerate some as a trade off for other considerations, but I don't understand how one must justify the idea that government should be of the people.

No, the point of democratic government is to represent the interests of the people. PR takes as a goal that the number of representatives from each party will be (near) proportional to the number of votes that party got in the election. Already, there are two assumptions:

1) there should be these things called “parties” for which one votes; and

2) the best way to represent the interests of the people is for the number of MPs from each party in the legislature should be proportional to the number of votes received by the corresponding party.

As I said, I agree that a situation where a party with 33% of the vote gets 55% of the MPs and therefore 100% of the power (well, not quite, MPs aren’t that well trained, but not far off), is clearly problematic, but I’m not aware of anybody actually arguing for the proposition that if a party gets 33% of the vote it should have 33% of the MPs +/- 1 MP. What’s wrong with 30% or 35%? I notice that you didn’t say anything about my ”square root” idea (which is not mine but arises out of a consideration of the voting power of various parties or interest groups given various numbers of representatives in the assembly). At a minimum, an advocate for PR should be able to explain, without resorting to circular argumentation, why simple proportion is more appropriate than the square root.

Also, does it matter where the support is? I think there is a colorable argument to be made that thin support country wide is not worthy of representation in Parliament; but if a large fraction of people in a small part of the country have concerns, they probably need to be heard, because widespread dissatisfaction in a geographical area is bad for the union.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - danbrotherston - 10-16-2019

(10-15-2019, 10:28 PM)ijmorlan Wrote:
(10-15-2019, 07:03 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: I really don't understand your comment here.  I am not saying there aren't other considerations, but proportionality is fundamentally the point of government...being less proportional is bad...yes, we may be able to tolerate some as a trade off for other considerations, but I don't understand how one must justify the idea that government should be of the people.

No, the point of democratic government is to represent the interests of the people. PR takes as a goal that the number of representatives from each party will be (near) proportional to the number of votes that party got in the election. Already, there are two assumptions:

1) there should be these things called “parties” for which one votes; and

2) the best way to represent the interests of the people is for the number of MPs from each party in the legislature should be proportional to the number of votes received by the corresponding party.

As I said, I agree that a situation where a party with 33% of the vote gets 55% of the MPs and therefore 100% of the power (well, not quite, MPs aren’t that well trained, but not far off), is clearly problematic, but I’m not aware of anybody actually arguing for the proposition that if a party gets 33% of the vote it should have 33% of the MPs +/- 1 MP. What’s wrong with 30% or 35%? I notice that you didn’t say anything about my  ”square root” idea (which is not mine but arises out of a consideration of the voting power of various parties or interest groups given various numbers of representatives in the assembly). At a minimum, an advocate for PR should be able to explain, without resorting to circular argumentation, why simple proportion is more appropriate than the square root.

Also, does it matter where the support is? I think there is a colorable argument to be made that thin support country wide is not worthy of representation in Parliament; but if a large fraction of people in a small part of the country have concerns, they probably need to be heard, because widespread dissatisfaction in a geographical area is bad for the union.

I very much fundamentally disagree. Parties are nothing more than a set of values, you pick the one you agree most with, or you form your own. People who happen to be thinly spread throughout the country still deserve representation in our government, just the same as the same number of people in one area, why should my feelings count less because people who agree with me are spread out, or frankly, for that matter, interspersed, because spread out areas still get representation if they're sparse.

As to your questions, no, square root doesn't make sense because it still breaks proportionality, in this case by giving minorities more power. And no, I did explicitly state that 30% or 35% in your example is fine...

One of the biggest reasons I believe this is because the less proportional a government is, the more people a government can ignore when it makes decisions. The most people a government must consider, the more it represents the people, and not special interests.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - robdrimmie - 10-16-2019

(10-15-2019, 10:28 PM)ijmorlan Wrote: Also, does it matter where the support is? I think there is a colorable argument to be made that thin support country wide is not worthy of representation in Parliament; but if a large fraction of people in a small part of the country have concerns, they probably need to be heard, because widespread dissatisfaction in a geographical area is bad for the union.

You presented two options but I don't understand how the difference in geography is relevant. If the thin support country wide represents x% of the country's populace, and the large fraction of people in a small part of the country also represent x%, then the issues at hand are of equal importance to the country, are they not?


RE: 2019 Federal Election - MidTowner - 10-16-2019

He explained the relevance in his last sentence: "widespread dissatisfaction in a geographical area is bad for the union."

That's accurate. Dissatisfaction that is dispersed geographically is a lot less likely to manifest itself in ways that are threatening to cohesion than dissatisfaction that is concentrated among one regional population. Maybe that's less true in the modern era than in the past, but it's still true.

Edit: I say that because you said "of equal importance to the country." Of course the state needs to pay more attention to 8% of voters who comprise almost a third of voters in a specific region, than 8% of voters who are spread evenly. The former group could, if ignored, threaten to separate and threaten the state's very existence.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - danbrotherston - 10-16-2019

(10-16-2019, 10:01 AM)MidTowner Wrote: He explained the relevance in his last sentence: "widespread dissatisfaction in a geographical area is bad for the union."

That's accurate. Dissatisfaction that is dispersed geographically is a lot less likely to manifest itself in ways that are threatening to cohesion than dissatisfaction that is concentrated among one regional population. Maybe that's less true in the modern era than in the past, but it's still true.

Edit: I say that because you said "of equal importance to the country." Of course the state needs to pay more attention to 8% of voters who comprise almost a third of voters in a specific region, than 8% of voters who are spread evenly. The former group could, if ignored, threaten to separate and threaten the state's very existence.

That's an awfully cynical belief.

Leaving widespread dissatisfaction to fester is how we get things like Trump, which I'd argue is pretty bad for the US.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - Rainrider22 - 10-16-2019

What about Trump ? He is most likely going to be reelected. His ratings are high, so apparently the Americans like him.. All my American friends are voting for him again because they think he is great.


RE: 2019 Federal Election - Brenden - 10-16-2019

Should we try to predict the outcome of the election locally?

Will any seats turn over?