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+--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463)
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RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 11-09-2020
1243 cases today, just short of breaking the record only set a few hours earlier: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-november-9-peel-testing-1.5795027
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Bjays93 - 11-09-2020
We are not trending in the right direction but looking for positives, at least we're nothing like europe yet.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ZEBuilder - 11-09-2020
(11-09-2020, 12:15 PM)Bjays93 Wrote: We are not trending in the right direction but looking for positives, at least we're nothing like europe yet.
the key word there is yet. as a province no we're no where close to beinging like europe but as a country we're definitly trending in the wrong direction.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 11-09-2020
The rise in European cases is unique, because they're finding they are not admitting as many people to hospitals as before, nor as as many dying. It'd be nice to see that happen here in Canada as things rise, but we'll have to see: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-european-covid-19-cases-are-surging-but-the-death-rates-remain-low/
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 11-09-2020
(11-09-2020, 02:01 PM)ac3r Wrote: The rise in European cases is unique, because they're finding they are not admitting as many people to hospitals as before, nor as as many dying. It'd be nice to see that happen here in Canada as things rise, but we'll have to see: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-european-covid-19-cases-are-surging-but-the-death-rates-remain-low/
Not as many people (as a percentage) are being hospitalized, that is correct. But hospitalizations are indeed going up. For example, Belgium is near capacity:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-belgiums-hospitals-on-the-brink-as-caseloads-soar/a-55459225
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - panamaniac - 11-09-2020
(11-09-2020, 02:01 PM)ac3r Wrote: The rise in European cases is unique, because they're finding they are not admitting as many people to hospitals as before, nor as as many dying. It'd be nice to see that happen here in Canada as things rise, but we'll have to see: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-european-covid-19-cases-are-surging-but-the-death-rates-remain-low/
Depends in large part in how well we protect our seniors, no? (and how well seniors protect themselves)
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 11-09-2020
MONDAY 2020-11-09
Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (20.2% of the active cases!). 202 new cases for the week (+23), averaging 18.5% of active cases (ugh). 210 active cases (+89 in the last seven days).
Next testing report on Tuesday
Ontario reported 1,242 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,106 (+42). 821 recoveries and 12 deaths translated to an increase of 409 active cases, and a current total of 9,514, rapidly heading for the 10,000-case mark. +1,418 active cases for the week, and 93 deaths. 28,401 tests resulted in a 4.37% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.38% for the past seven days.
ICU and overall hospital patient counts not reliably reported today.
- 483 cases in Toronto: 16.7 per 100K population
- 279 cases in Peel: 18.6 per 100K
- 107 cases in York: 9.7 per 100K
- 74 cases in Ottawa: 7.4 per 100K
- 57 cases in Hamilton: 10.3 per 100K
- 43 cases in Halton: 6.6 per 100K
- 18 cases in Niagara: 4.0 per 100K
- 37 cases in Middlesex-London
- 20 cases in Windsor-Essex
- 14 cases in Durham: 1.4 per 100K
- 32 cases in Waterloo: 4.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 11-09-2020
Oubtkreak declared at Algrave Restaurant. 6 infected, and up to 175 exposed between October 28 to November 4: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/waterloo-region-covid-19-update-november-9-1.5795428
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 11-09-2020
Yeah, I said I would write something. I'm not feeling good about this. We all know how much new cases have shot up, but to me even more alarming is the inexorable rise in active cases. Active cases, in combination with the R0 rate, drive the new infections, and both are up quickly. New cases at over 10% of actives will drive this growth as cases cannot be resolved at this high a pace. (The average/median severity is lower than in the spring, but both hospitalizations and deaths have been increasing as well.)
The chart shows how we have been over this 10% level since about August (look around day 141) -- and that's where the rise of the active cases really started.
The other factor that I am really concerned about is testing and tracking. Our test positivity rates are now over 3%, from below 1% in the summer, indicating that we are not doing enough testing. Ontario is averaging about 35,000 tests per day for the past month, well below the test processing capacity, which is at least 50,000. Ford said he will increase this to 100,000 per day, but that would require tripling the collection of test samples, not just the processing of samples. Where is the issue? Are there capacity issues, and people can't get tested -- or not enough people are interested in getting tested?
And tracing ... I believe we are sadly lacking here. The smartphone app is good, but not enough people have it for us to be able to rely on it. Clearly we are not able to effectively trace the contacts, given how fast the infection rates are increasing.
The one positive note is that Pfizer's phase-three tests for their mRNA vaccine look very good so far, with 90% efficacy, better than I dared to hope, and no significant side effects. And there are still other vaccines in the pipeline, including other mRNA ones. We don't know yet how long the protection lasts, though.
Canada has an order in the system for this one so we should be seeing significant numbers of doses here in early 2021. Administering those on a mass scale will be a huge effort, but hopefully there are smart people thinking about the logistics of this already.
Still, I worry about the current situation, and whether we can control the infection rates enough for the next 3-6 months, until the vaccine can be administered in mass quantities. It's not Europe, and it's not the US, but we have a big challenge in front of us, even so.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Bjays93 - 11-10-2020
(11-09-2020, 02:32 PM)tomh009 Wrote:Less people are being hospitalized because we know more and have some methods to help lessen the severity of the illness and know a little better how to treat it then we did back in March.(11-09-2020, 02:01 PM)ac3r Wrote: The rise in European cases is unique, because they're finding they are not admitting as many people to hospitals as before, nor as as many dying. It'd be nice to see that happen here in Canada as things rise, but we'll have to see: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-european-covid-19-cases-are-surging-but-the-death-rates-remain-low/
Not as many people (as a percentage) are being hospitalized, that is correct. But hospitalizations are indeed going up. For example, Belgium is near capacity:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-belgiums-hospitals-on-the-brink-as-caseloads-soar/a-55459225
Hospitalizations lag by nearly a month though, and so even if cases start going down, the hospitals haven't seen the worst of it. Once hospitals get overwhelmed it doesn't matter what percentage of people are hospitalized. The situation becomes dire very quickly.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 11-10-2020
Another record broken in Ontario today. 1388 new cases: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-november-10-update-1.5796429
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 11-10-2020
TUESDAY 2020-11-10
Waterloo Region reported 42 new cases for today (19.8% of the active cases!). 225 new cases for the week (+23), averaging 19.0% of active cases (ugh). 230 active cases (+101 in the last seven days).
An average of only 692 tests per day for the past week, less than at any time since early September, resulting in an all-too-high 4.65% positivity rate. Hello Waterloo Region, why are we not testing more?
Ontario reported 1,388 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,154 (+48). 781 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 592 active cases, and a current total of 10,106, blowing past the 10,000-case mark. +1,811 active cases for the week, and 94 deaths. 29,125 tests resulted in a 4.77% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.46% for the past seven days.
ICU bed count is down slightly at 82 (-2) but the overall hospital population is now up to 422 (+65 in the past week).
- 520 cases in Toronto: 17.9 per 100K population
- 395 cases in Peel: 26.7 per 100K
- 100 cases in York: 9.1 per 100K
- 72 cases in Halton: 13.1 per 100K
- 50 cases in Niagara: 11.0 per 100K
- 36 cases in Durham: 3.6 per 100K
- 35 cases in Hamilton: 6.4 per 100K
- 23 cases in Ottawa: 2.3 per 100K
- 20 cases in Middlesex-London
- 20 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
- 42 cases in Waterloo: 6.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 11-11-2020
1426 new cases across the province today: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-breaks-another-covid-19-record-with-more-than-1-400-new-cases-1.5183959
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 11-11-2020
WEDNESDAY 2020-11-11
Waterloo Region reported 51 new cases for today (22.1% of the active cases!). 251 new cases for the week (+27), averaging 19.0% of active cases (ugh). 254 active cases (+101 in the last seven days).
Next testing report on Friday.
Ontario reported 1,426 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,1217 (+63). 886 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 525 active cases, and a current total of 10,631. +2,310 active cases for the week, and 93 deaths. 36,707 tests resulted in a 3.88% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.52% for the past seven days.
ICU bed count is up to 88 (+6) and the overall hospital population is 424 (+57 in the past week).
- 468 cases in Peel: 46.8 per 100K population
- 384 cases in Toronto: 13.2 per 100K
- 180 cases in York: 16.4 per 100K
- 63 cases in Durham: 9.7 per 100K
- 62 cases in Hamilton: 11.5 per 100K
- 42 cases in Niagara: 9.3 per 100K
- 30 cases in Halton: 5.4 per 100K
- 28 cases in Ottawa: 2.8 per 100K
- 27 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
- 20 cases in Middlesex-London
- 40 cases in Waterloo: 6.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
And that's about 1100 new cases in the GTA, not including regions like Halton and Simcoe-Muskoka. Is it feasible for Waterloo Region to avoid massive contagion from that?
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - panamaniac - 11-11-2020
Ottawa seems to have gotten things under control over this past week, with just 28 new cases reported today. With things having reopened on the weekend, however, I'd expect the numbers to start ticking up again by this time next week.