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+--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463)
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RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Bjays93 - 10-01-2020
(10-01-2020, 07:49 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Yes. It really worked for them. Not so sure people here would have co-operated at the same level. But after the lockdown, they were seeing only about 10 new cases per day in September.There absolutely is, the issue becomes what is an invasion of privacy and rights. I lived for a good while in Hong Kong and am well connected with people in the region. Frankly it is a myth that Taiwan never went into lockdown. They never went wuhan style, but masks were mandatory, sporting events shut down, bars and restaurants closed or if not strictly enforcing social distancing measures. Schools also closed, and they closed their border sometime in February or March.
And on the flip side, Taiwan never did a lockdown. They reacted early -- which helped -- but still reached 400 cases by mid-April. Since then? Only about 100 more. 26 total cases in September!
There is more than one way to beat this virus.
Additionally being an island no doubt helps, and I'd imagine being a sovereign state that isnt a recognized country also helps some, because official interactions and exchanges with the island are lower than other developed states and countries due to a lack of official ties with Taiwan.
Lastly, Taiwan has put an incredible effort towards contact tracing. Many of their policies around forced quarantine for positive cases, intense personal monitoring and tracing and so on, would probably be met with outcry here.
So yes there are other ways to beat the virus, but who knows if they would actually work here.
One last thing, while completely anecdotal, is that I personally see a correlation between countries that handled covid well without ultra strict lockdowns and other measures, and countries where mask wearing was already common and done willingly before any government instituted orders.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 10-01-2020
(10-01-2020, 08:48 PM)Bjays93 Wrote:(10-01-2020, 07:49 PM)tomh009 Wrote: And on the flip side, Taiwan never did a lockdown. They reacted early -- which helped -- but still reached 400 cases by mid-April. Since then? Only about 100 more. 26 total cases in September!There absolutely is, the issue becomes what is an invasion of privacy and rights. I lived for a good while in Hong Kong and am well connected with people in the region. Frankly it is a myth that Taiwan never went into lockdown. They never went wuhan style, but masks were mandatory, sporting events shut down, bars and restaurants closed or if not strictly enforcing social distancing measures. Schools also closed, and they closed their border sometime in February or March.
Additionally being an island no doubt helps, and I'd imagine being a sovereign state that isnt a recognized country also helps some, because official interactions and exchanges with the island are lower than other developed states and countries due to a lack of official ties with Taiwan.
Lastly, Taiwan has put an incredible effort towards contact tracing. Many of their policies around forced quarantine for positive cases, intense personal monitoring and tracing and so on, would probably be met with outcry here.
So yes there are other ways to beat the virus, but who knows if they would actually work here.
One last thing, while completely anecdotal, is that I personally see a correlation between countries that handled covid well without ultra strict lockdowns and other measures, and countries where mask wearing was already common and done willingly before any government instituted orders.
The recent discussion was about a hard lockdown/curfew where people basically are not allowed to leave their houses or apartments. The restrictions on movement and gatherings that Taiwan applied were more similar to what we did here. Where they did better was a combination of mask use (early on, we are now catching up), monitoring of positive/exposed people and contact tracing.
At least at this point, I believe that people here would more readily accept those than they would the Sri Lanka-style hard lockdown/curfew.
And, yes, I agree, there is a correlation there for sure, with pre-COVID mask use.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 10-02-2020
FRIDAY 2020-10-02
Waterloo Region reported five new cases for today (3.5% of the active cases) -- with two additional cases for yesterday (now 16 cases total, 10.1% of actives). 64 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 5.9% of active cases. 144 active cases (-9 in the last seven days).
Next testing report on Friday.
Ontario reported 732 new cases today with a seven-day average of 582, still going up quickly. 428 recoveries and two deaths (plus 74 deaths not previously reported) translated to a increase of 302 active cases (net of those 74 deaths) and a current total of 5,203. A weekly total change of +1,378 active cases (again, net). 40,093 tests for a 1.83% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.46% for the past seven days.
Oh yes, that seven-day average is a new record, and exceeds the seven-day average of 571 we recorded on 23 April.
The new cases are 14.1% of the number of active cases, averaging 12.4% over the past seven days. The last time the average was below 10% was on 16 August.
ICU patient count is at 38 (+2), 3x the numbers from late August. Total hospital population is up to 167 (+5).
- 323 cases in Toronto: 9.5 per 100K population
- 141 cases in Ottawa: 14.1 per 100K
- 111 cases in Peel: 11.1 per 100K
- 38 cases in York: 3.5 per 100K
- 34 cases in Durham 5.2 per 100K
- 9 cases in Waterloo: 1.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
Toronto, Peel and Ottawa all around 10+ cases perk 100K population. Ugh. The top five regions account for nearly 90% of the Ontario cases.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - panamaniac - 10-02-2020
As bad as the latest number for Ottawa is, I wonder how much worse the real numbers are, given the backlog of test results that they are describing as "unmanageable"? The head of Ottawa Public Health has called on people to avoid all unnecessary trips out of the home and to "reconsider" any social activity with family or friends planned for the weekend.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Bjays93 - 10-02-2020
Quebec also had over 1000 cases today. I didnt see the regional breakdown for quebec but that cannot be good their either.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 10-02-2020
(10-02-2020, 12:01 PM)panamaniac Wrote: As bad as the latest number for Ottawa is, I wonder how much worse the real numbers are, given the backlog of test results that they are describing as "unmanageable"? The head of Ottawa Public Health has called on people to avoid all unnecessary trips out of the home and to "reconsider" any social activity with family or friends planned for the weekend.
How much is Ottawa testing?
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 10-02-2020
(10-02-2020, 12:40 PM)Bjays93 Wrote: Quebec also had over 1000 cases today. I didnt see the regional breakdown for quebec but that cannot be good their either.
About 600 cases in the Montreal area, and 200 in the Quebec City area. In spite of the rash of Ottawa cases, the Gatineau area only has 32 nw cases.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - ac3r - 10-02-2020
Ontario implementing stricter public health measures as province sees record-high new cases.
Key points:
- Masks are now mandatory province wide starting Saturday
- Covid-19 testing will now be by appointment only
- Toronto, Ottawa and Peel now have tighter restrictions on restaurants, bars, halls and gyms
- Testing capacity to be increased - up to 50'000 per day throughout October and nearing 70'000 by November
- Schools are getting worse, with 37 new cases today. 318 schools province wide have outbreaks and 3 are now entirely closed
- Test backlog is over 90'000 (which would take about 2 days of round the clock processing to clear)
- Hospitals and laboratories in Ottawa are in a "crisis point"
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 10-02-2020
Schools are still not the biggest problem. Reducing social circles makes sense, assuming people follow this.
More testing capacity is good. But nothing said about tracking and tracing -- although doing that for 700+ new cases/day would likely not be manageable at the moment anyway.
I think this is the link ac3r intended to post:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-october-2-1.5747709
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 10-03-2020
SATURDAY 2020-10-03
Waterloo Region reported fifteen new cases for today (9.8% of the active cases) -- with four additional cases for yesterday (now nine cases total, 6.0% of actives). 79 new cases for the week (+15), averaging 7.2% of active cases. 153 active cases (+2 in the last seven days).
Next testing report on Friday.
Ontario reported 653 new cases today with a seven-day average of 613, still going up quickly. 435 recoveries and four deaths (plus 37 earlier ones from spring/summer data cleansing) translated to a increase of 214 active cases (net of those 37) and a current total of 5,380. A weekly total change of +1,495 active cases (again, net). 46,254 tests -- a new record -- for a 1.41% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.52% for the past seven days.
In spite of the average number of tests having increased by 10% over the prior week, the positivity rate still shot up from 1.13% to 1.41%.
ICU patient count is at 41 (+3).
- 284 cases in Toronto: 8.6 per 100K population
- 104 cases in Peel: 10.4 per 100K
- 97 cases in Ottawa: 9.7 per 100K
- 50 cases in York: 4.5 per 100K
- 18 cases in Waterloo: 2.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - panamaniac - 10-03-2020
52 of Ottawa’s 97 cases were people under age 30.
Family gatherings next week could send things spinning out of control, I fear.
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 10-03-2020
(10-03-2020, 03:29 PM)panamaniac Wrote: 52 of Ottawa’s 97 cases were people under age 30.
Family gatherings next week could send things spinning out of control, I fear.
I saw somewhere (where?) that while our second wave started with mostly under-40s, the balance was now shifting and there were relatively more older people.
If I could only remember where I read that ...
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - panamaniac - 10-03-2020
(09-30-2020, 05:10 PM)Just tomh009 Wrote:(09-30-2020, 04:28 PM)Coke6pk Wrote: I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.
Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.
(10-03-2020, 08:28 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(10-03-2020, 03:29 PM)panamaniac Wrote: 52 of Ottawa’s 97 cases were people under age 30.
Family gatherings next week could send things spinning out of control, I fear.
I saw somewhere (where?) that while our second wave started with mostly under-40s, the balance was now shifting and there were relatively more older people.
If I could only remember where I read that ...
I fear it’s inevitable and that the holiday will be a catalyst.
RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 10-04-2020
SUNDAY 2020-10-04
Waterloo Region reported seven new cases for today (5.5% of the active cases) -- but with seven additional cases for yesterday (now 22 cases total, 13.8% of actives). 84 new cases for the week (+5), averaging 7.8% of active cases. 127 active cases (-29 in the last seven days).
Next testing report on Tuesday.
Ontario reported 566 new cases today with a seven-day average of 624, still going up. 534 recoveries and three deaths (plus four earlier ones from spring/summer data cleansing) translated to a increase of 29 active cases (net of those four) and a current total of 5,405. A weekly total change of +1,324 active cases (again, net). 39,661 tests for a 1.43% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.56% for the past seven days.
ICU patient count was not reported today.
- 196 cases in Toronto: 6.0 per 100K population
- 123 cases in Peel: 12.3 per 100K
- 81 cases in Ottawa: 8.1 per 100K
- 42 cases in York: 3.9 per 100K
- 25 cases in Halton: 4.0 per 100K
- 14 cases in Waterloo: 2.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 10-04-2020
(10-03-2020, 08:28 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(10-03-2020, 03:29 PM)panamaniac Wrote: 52 of Ottawa’s 97 cases were people under age 30.
Family gatherings next week could send things spinning out of control, I fear.
I saw somewhere (where?) that while our second wave started with mostly under-40s, the balance was now shifting and there were relatively more older people.
If I could only remember where I read that ...
The Ontario government weekly summaries have a breakdown by age over time. 20-39 shot up first in the second wave but <20 and 40-59 are now increasing as well.