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The COVID-19 pandemic - Printable Version

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RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 04-18-2021

SUNDAY 2021-04-18

Waterloo Region reported 75 new cases for today (12.4% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 69; 616 new cases for the week (+26), averaging 14.9% of active cases. 598 active cases, +97 in the last seven days, after four consecutive drops daily drops.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 4,250 new cases today with a seven-day average of 4,341 (-29). 3,338 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to an increase of 894 active cases and a new total of 41,588. +8,771 active cases for the week and 164 deaths (23 per day). 53,776 tests for a positivity rate of 7.90%. The positivity rate is averaging 7.98% for the past seven days, compared to 6.97% for the preceding seven.

741 patients in ICU (+15 today, +136 for the week) and a total of 2,107 patients hospitalized (+594 for the week).

86,565 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 99,734. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-18 (+1 day). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 17 days (+1 today).
  • 714 cases in Peel: 51.7 per 100K
  • 1,392 cases in Toronto: 47.5 per 100K
  • 483 cases in York: 43.5 per 100K
  • 279 cases in Durham: 43.2 per 100K
  • 149 cases in Niagara: 33.3 per 100K
  • 117 cases in Middlesex-London: 28.9 per 100K
  • 73 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 26.8 per 100K
  • 151 cases in Hamilton: 26.1 per 100K
  • 52 cases in Eastern Ontario: 25.6 per 100K
  • 239 cases in Ottawa: 24.0 per 100K
  • 127 cases in Halton: 23.2 per 100K
  • 75 cases in Windsor-Essex: 19.3 per 100K
  • 101 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 18.7 per 100K
  • 74 cases in Waterloo: 12.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  • 10 cases in Northwestern: 11.4 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Huron Perth: 11.2 per 100K
  • 22 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 11.0 per 100K
  • 14 cases in Lambton: 10.7 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 5.9 per 100K
  • 6 cases in Chatham-Kent: 5.7 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 5.4 per 100K
  • 15 cases in Sudbury: 3.9 per 100K

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Rainrider22 - 04-18-2021

(04-17-2021, 10:25 AM)ac3r Wrote: I'm sure he still has a few ideas on the table ready to go for next week!

This thing has been so painful for everyone. I hope he and his entire party lose the next election because this has been ridiculous. We now have new models showing we will likely hit 18'000 cases per day in this province by the end of May. What will we do then? Our hospitals are already about to collapse and we're only averaging something like 4500 cases per day. How do they expect to handle 18'000?
I am curious, many people are quick to condem Ford. I am just asking what your solution would have been.  I am not being sarcastic or rude.  I ambserious about yours and others idea.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - jamincan - 04-18-2021

My solution would have been to do a much harder lockdown early with very clearly defined criteria for what is and isn't essential work and activities. I believe it would have resulted in lower case loads and shorter lockdowns. The problem, of course, for a politician, especially a populist one like Ford who doesn't really know how to *lead*, is that without really high caseloads, the public support for lockdowns is much harder to get.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - robdrimmie - 04-18-2021

The thing that bothers me most is that a year in and we do not have a consistent system whereby important metrics are discussed and hard thresholds set for specific tiers of lockdown. We have tiers of lockdown, most of which have been not of use to the GTA since December, but we don't know what triggers changes between them.

This virus and the variants change. It's impossible to have a plan for this. But there are many different kinds of dangers in the pipeline. Covid may be just as permanent as the flu, what are we going to do if it is? What are we going to do when the next pandemic hits? What models do we have to manage environmental dangers that may impact our ability in similar ways?

It's reasonable to expect our systems to be wrong, many many people were asleep at the anti-pandemic-mobile's wheel, but to not make clear commitments to specific actions that allow individuals and corporations to make plans. Even if they're wrong at least there's some expectations to build on, a course to correct.

The best businesses clearly communicate their goals such that anyone in the corporation who gives half a fuck can sign on and push the ship in the same direction. I don't think governments should be run like businesses, but it's a model that carries a lot of weight. Fine, using it, Ford is a CEO who is unable to clearly set a vision and empower the people who follow his lead. He's not guiding the province through this, he's at the back pushing a bunch of people in front and telling us to move left after the right flank gets exploded.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 04-18-2021

(04-18-2021, 03:44 PM)Rainrider22 Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 10:25 AM)ac3r Wrote: I'm sure he still has a few ideas on the table ready to go for next week!

This thing has been so painful for everyone. I hope he and his entire party lose the next election because this has been ridiculous. We now have new models showing we will likely hit 18'000 cases per day in this province by the end of May. What will we do then? Our hospitals are already about to collapse and we're only averaging something like 4500 cases per day. How do they expect to handle 18'000?
I am curious, many people are quick to condem Ford. I am just asking what your solution would have been.  I am not being sarcastic or rude.  I ambserious about yours and others idea.

Oh, so much. The general policy would have been COVID zero, not the "barely managed situation" we have now, and possibly transitioning into "not at all managed" scenario.

Biggest specific issues with Ford and how to fix them:

1. Communication:

Communications have been muddied and confused. I would have decided on policy, (the right policy the first time), communicated it clearly, along with end conditions we are looking for.  Both at a vision level, and an immediate term level.  I'd have stopped pointing the blame at others.  This makes a huge difference, inspiring people (not something I'm good at, but I still think I could do better than Ford...if only by hiring the right people to help), is the key to succeeding here.

2. Proactive policy:

Policies have been totally reactive, and not forward thinking.

Examples:

In summery, policies should have been around planning to ensure schools are safe. I think we got lucky with school transmission being lower, but they are still closed now, and were in January. We could have done much better, investing in ventilation, smaller class sizes, etc. etc.

In late November, cases were rising. We know that Christmas is an important holiday. I would have locked down then, in order to ensure that cases are low enough to make Christmas safer. We had a HUGE spike as a result of failing to do this, because nobody was willing to plan ahead, or maybe, were unwilling to face the reality of what would happen at Christmas.

And of course the current dire situation we are facing, as a result of ignoring modeling and opening anyway.

3. Science based policy:

This one is self explanatory, stop giving people money, stop with the bad policies, focus on the real problems. Invest in the right resources (e.g., contact tracing) to make it possible to actually gather the data to make targeted policies.

I could probably think of more things, but those are the biggest problems I think.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Bjays93 - 04-18-2021

(04-18-2021, 03:44 PM)Rainrider22 Wrote:
(04-17-2021, 10:25 AM)ac3r Wrote: I'm sure he still has a few ideas on the table ready to go for next week!

This thing has been so painful for everyone. I hope he and his entire party lose the next election because this has been ridiculous. We now have new models showing we will likely hit 18'000 cases per day in this province by the end of May. What will we do then? Our hospitals are already about to collapse and we're only averaging something like 4500 cases per day. How do they expect to handle 18'000?
I am curious, many people are quick to condem Ford. I am just asking what your solution would have been.  I am not being sarcastic or rude.  I ambserious about yours and others idea.
I'd have to agree with some other people here. It's a thankless job and I for the life of me wouldnt want to do it, but throughout the course of this pandemic theres many things we could have done differently. At the start, or if we still messed that up later on, or at the end of the second lockdown, or even going into this lockdown. 

First and foremost the decisions should be based on science not optics. It's been over a year, theres tons of data that we didnt have last year that we do now. We're not going into this blind anymore. Theres lots of different strategies that would've been better, but many have touched on them so I wont bother spending the next 20 mins to type things out

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - KevinL - 04-18-2021

AstraZeneca doses will be opened to those 40+, starting Tuesday! Any ideas how someone can register in advance? https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-lowers-minimum-astazeneca-age-1.5992703

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - taylortbb - 04-18-2021

(04-18-2021, 08:08 PM)KevinL Wrote: AstraZeneca doses will be opened to those 40+, starting Tuesday! Any ideas how someone can register in advance? https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-lowers-minimum-astazeneca-age-1.5992703

It'll be up to the pharmacies and their registration systems. The RoW public health site is for booking at the mass clinics, but AZ is at pharmacies and they all have their own booking systems. 

Fastest option might just be to call the pharmacies that have it, the online booking systems will take time to update. There was just a tweet that the Rexall at 585 Weber St N has 200+ doses, I'd try calling them.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Acitta - 04-18-2021

(04-18-2021, 08:08 PM)KevinL Wrote: AstraZeneca doses will be opened to those 40+, starting Tuesday! Any ideas how someone can register in advance? https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-lowers-minimum-astazeneca-age-1.5992703
I pre-registered on the Rexall and Shoppers websites. Rexall responded first and I got my shot yesterday.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - KevinL - 04-19-2021

I'm now pre-registered in the Rexall and Shoppers/Zehrs systems. Fingers crossed!

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 04-19-2021

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-04-19 (posting this every two days).

RegionCases todayper 100K10-day averageper 100KWeekly trend
Peel
926
67.0
792
57.3
+18%
York
577
52.0
495
44.6
+7%
Toronto
1,299
44.3
1,239
42.3
+14%
Durham
205
31.7
255
39.4
-8%
Niagara
203
45.3
155
34.6
+41%
Ottawa
233
23.4
299
30.1
-19%
Middlesex-London
56
13.8
121
29.9
-27%
Hamilton
227
39.2
168
29.1
+43%
Halton
169
30.8
151
27.6
+12%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
70
25.7
73
26.9
-11%
Brant
39
28.7
36
26.6
+6%
Eastern Ontario
32
15.8
43
21.3
+17%
Simcoe-Muskoka
114
21.1
107
19.8
-2%
Windsor-Essex
39
10.0
57
14.7
+42%
Waterloo
79
12.8
84
13.5
-7%
Southwestern Ontario
10
5.0
23
11.6
-20%
Lambton
5
3.8
13
9.9
-57%
Northwestern
3
3.4
8
9.1
-35%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark
12
7.1
15
8.8
-27%
Huron Perth
3
3.1
7
7.3
-9%
Kingston Frontenac
11
5.4
14
7.1
-41%
Sudbury
11
2.8
21
5.3
-55%
Chatham-Kent
9
8.5
5
4.8
+43%
Thunder Bay
4
2.7
7
4.8
-81%
Ontario total
+8%

New highs today for Hamilton (again) and York. But, overall, the trend is improved, the provincial weekly growth is down to 8%, and the regional growth rates are down as well.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Rainrider22 - 04-19-2021

Positive news.....Thanks

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - Acitta - 04-19-2021

(04-19-2021, 09:46 AM)KevinL Wrote: I'm now pre-registered in the Rexall and Shoppers/Zehrs systems. Fingers crossed!
It took 12 days from the day I pre-registered at Rexall to when I got the email inviting me to book an appointment. Shoppers never got back to me.

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - tomh009 - 04-19-2021

MONDAY 2021-04-18

Waterloo Region reported 68 new cases for today (11.4% of the active cases) and seven more for yesterday for a total of 82; 574 new cases for the week (-42), averaging 13.5% of active cases. 624 active cases, +65 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

9,995 doses of vaccine administered over the three days, with a seven-day average of 3,691. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-07-04 (+2 days).

Ontario reported 4,447 new cases today with a seven-day average of 4,348 (+7). 3,153 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to an increase of 1,275 active cases and a new total of 42,863. +8,105 active cases for the week and 168 deaths (24 per day). 42,873 tests for a positivity rate of 10.37% -- the first time over 10% since the early stages of the pandemic. The positivity rate is averaging 8.15% for the past seven days, compared to 7.14% for the preceding seven.

755 patients in ICU (+14 today, +136 for the week) and a total of 2,202 patients hospitalized (+556 for the week).

66,897 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 99,734. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-19 (+1 day). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 17 days (+1 today).
  • 926 cases in Peel: 67.0 per 100K
  • 577 cases in York: 52.0 per 100K
  • 203 cases in Niagara: 45.3 per 100K
  • 1,299 cases in Toronto: 44.3 per 100K
  • 227 cases in Hamilton: 39.2 per 100K
  • 205 cases in Durham: 31.7 per 100K
  • 169 cases in Halton: 30.8 per 100K
  • 39 cases in Brant: 28.7 per 100K
  • 70 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 25.7 per 100K
  • 233 cases in Ottawa: 23.4 per 100K
  • 114 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 21.1 per 100K
  • 32 cases in Eastern Ontario: 15.8 per 100K
  • 56 cases in Middlesex-London: 13.8 per 100K
  • 79 cases in Waterloo: 12.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  • 39 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.0 per 100K
  • 9 cases in Chatham-Kent: 8.5 per 100K
  • 12 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 7.1 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 5.4 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.0 per 100K
  • 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  • 3 cases in Northwestern: 3.4 per 100K
  • 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Sudbury: 2.8 per 100K
  • 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

RE: The COVID-19 pandemic - danbrotherston - 04-19-2021

According to this Doctor (and she provides sources in the following tweet), Drs are now instructed not to put folks into ICU unless they have a 70% chance of surviving. I may be missing some subtleties here, and it is a tweet, so there certainly isn't room for all the subtleties. But the point is clear, the ICUs are now being rationed. I submit that the ICU numbers are no longer representing the number of patients in a critical state, but instead representing only reflect maximum available resources we have for handling patients.