The COVID-19 pandemic - Printable Version +- Waterloo Region Connected (https://www.waterlooregionconnected.com) +-- Forum: Connected Café (https://www.waterlooregionconnected.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=15) +--- Forum: General and Off-Topic Discussion (https://www.waterlooregionconnected.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=19) +--- Thread: The COVID-19 pandemic (/showthread.php?tid=1463) Pages:
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RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - danbrotherston - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 03:05 PM)jamincan Wrote:(03-23-2020, 01:58 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: It means the context of previous data is lost, the previous data is still valid, just in a different context... I am not suggesting that they should have kept the old methodology. But they have done a disservice by changing methodology without explaining it, and the reasoning behind it clearly. RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - MidTowner - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 03:05 PM)jamincan Wrote:(03-23-2020, 01:58 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: It means the context of previous data is lost, the previous data is still valid, just in a different context... Testing is not really being done in order to track the spread of the virus. We don't have the capacity for that kind of testing, so testing is being done to inform decisions about treatment of individual patients. The total results don't bear much relationship (or, anyway, a definable relationship) to the real number of cases. It's also true that the methodology has changed, so it's hard to even get a sense of the rate of increase. Based on computer modelling, Ottawa's chief medical officer of help estimates the real number of cases in Ottawa at around 4000. RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 03:28 PM)MidTowner Wrote: Based on computer modelling, Ottawa's chief medical officer of help estimates the real number of cases in Ottawa at around 4000. That's not quite correct. She did not estimate it at 4000. "What's more, Etches said computer modelling suggests as many as 4,000 people could be infected across the city." That indicates a considerably lower confidence level. In the end, no one can say how many people are infected until we actually start doing some random testing. And that's unlikely to happen until things calm down. RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-23-2020 (03-21-2020, 09:45 PM)KevinL Wrote: Very troubling situation at St. Mary's Hospital. https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/dozens-of-nurses-exposed-to-covid-19-at-st-mary-s-hospital-ona-1.4862996 Six people have been tested. Doesn't sound quite as bad as the original report, although it's possible other people will yet need to be tested. https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/six-staff-members-at-st-mary-s-general-hospital-being-tested-for-covid-19-1.4863483 RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - MidTowner - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 04:14 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-23-2020, 03:28 PM)MidTowner Wrote: Based on computer modelling, Ottawa's chief medical officer of help estimates the real number of cases in Ottawa at around 4000. That's exactly right: No one can say how many people are infected at the moment. But it is certainly higher than the confirmed numbers, and might not even bear much relationship to our confirmed numbers across time. And comparing our numbers to other jurisdictions' is pointless when no one is conducting mass testing, and testing protocols vary widely. RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - MidTowner - 03-23-2020 Brant County's third confirmed case is someone who works at Cambridge Memorial: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/brant-coronavirus-1.5507341 RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 08:34 PM)MidTowner Wrote:(03-23-2020, 04:14 PM)tomh009 Wrote: That's not quite correct. She did not estimate it at 4000. I agree that comparing absolute numbers has limited value, although it's clear that we have more infected people than Taiwan and fewer than Italy. But I will argue that the growth rates are still relevant, as long as the reporting and testing methodologies stay reasonably constant. Because a 2.5% daily growth in cases, while still exponential, can be manageable, while 25% will likely stretch a society to beyond its capacity to deal with it. And 30-40% growth rates simply indicate that the situation is out of control. And the rate of positive tests (for example, 2% vs 20%) is also relevant, as long as the testing methodology is also considered. RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-23-2020 Regarding the source of the infections, one thing to note is that while we have significant (voluntary) restrictions right now, last week nearly one million Canadians returned from abroad, explaining how we still have some many infections resulting from travel. The impact of the social distancing etc will take time to become visible. RE: City Centre/Young Condominiums | 17, 25 & 4 fl | U/C - jordan2423 - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 10:23 PM)panamaniac Wrote:(03-23-2020, 09:59 PM)Momo26 Wrote: Probably the last pics for a while. I assume construction will be suspended tomorrow? really, where did you hear this? RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jordan2423 - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 12:24 PM)panamaniac Wrote:That is correct Panamaniac.(03-23-2020, 11:44 AM)tomh009 Wrote: That's right. There are only two positive tests in the latest batch. I expect some of the 13 presumed positives to be confirmed, but whether it's 1 of 13 or 12 of 13 is anyone's guess. Presumptive cases indicated they have tested Positive for COVID-19, now they're just awaiting the second laboratory test to confirm it. RE: City Centre/Young Condominiums | 17, 25 & 4 fl | U/C - panamaniac - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 11:01 PM)jordan2423 Wrote:(03-23-2020, 10:23 PM)panamaniac Wrote: Not because of any government action - residential construction is on the "essentials" list. The list came out this evening. https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2020/3/list-of-essential-workplaces.html RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - jamincan - 03-24-2020 RE: City Centre/Young Condominiums | 17, 25 & 4 fl | U/C - Spokes - 03-24-2020 Gotta say I'm surprised by that. RE: City Centre/Young Condominiums | 17, 25 & 4 fl | U/C - panamaniac - 03-24-2020 (03-24-2020, 07:48 AM)Spokes Wrote: Gotta say I'm surprised by that. I’m more surprised that LCBO, the Beer Store, and weed shops are “essential”. RE: Covid-19 -- Pandemic - tomh009 - 03-24-2020 Yeah, that pretty much sums it ups. It certainly does not look like a sea change to me. |